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arXiv · 2610.14384

Decomposing the spectral density function of an ARMA process

Darlin Soto-Vásquez·Francisco Cuevas-Pacheco·Giovanni Motta·Malgorzata Sobolewska
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Abstract

Quasi-periodic oscillations are characterized by fitting Lorentzian functions to a nonparametric estimate of the power spectral density, a two-step procedure that separates estimation from modeling and does not accommodate measurement error. We develop a parametric alternative based on autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) processes observed with measurement error. We derive an exact decomposition of the ARMA spectral density into real-valued components, one for each class of autoregressive roots under complex conjugation, plus a polynomial term when the moving-average order is at least the autoregressive order. Each component is a Wrapped Cauchy kernel, and for complex roots it is accompanied by a conjugate-Poisson term that makes the peak asymmetric and displaces its maximum from the frequency given by the argument of the root. We obtain closed-form expressions for the location, height, width, and asymmetry of each peak, and a matching variance decomposition. Parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood through the Kalman filter, and all descriptors follow by plug-in. Simulations show that the closed-form peak location is recovered without appreciable bias. An X-ray binary light curve illustrates the methodology.

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Darlin Soto-Vásquez, Francisco Cuevas-Pacheco, Giovanni Motta, Malgorzata Sobolewska. 2026-10-09. Decomposing the spectral density function of an ARMA process. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14384

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