Comparing randomized trials

Yu-Han Chiu; Issa J. Dahabreh

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arXiv · 2610.14895

Comparing randomized trials

Yu-Han Chiu·Issa J. Dahabreh

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Abstract

Disagreements between randomized trials that address the same causal question pose challenges for the interpretation and synthesis of evidence. We sketch a causal framework for comparing the results of randomized trials that explicitly accommodates the possibility of trial engagement effects. Using counterfactual outcomes defined under joint interventions on treatment assignment and trial-related actions, we compare trial-native treatment effects with the effects transported from one trial to the population of another in a common target population. We show that standard conditions for transporting treatment effects across trial populations are not sufficient to guarantee agreement between transported and trial-native effects. Agreement additionally requires conditions governing how trial-related actions affect outcome across studies - for example, absence of trial engagement effects, equivalence of such effects across trials, or lack of interaction between trial engagement and treatment assignment. Our framework clarifies potential sources of disagreement across trials and extends existing approaches to study comparison to settings in which trial engagement effects may be present.

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Yu-Han Chiu, Issa J. Dahabreh. 2026-10-10. Comparing randomized trials. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14895

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