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arXiv · 2610.16422

Multivariate phase-space interpretation of ensemble forecasts: A comparison of physical and AI models

Martin Bonte·Stéphane Vannitsem
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Abstract

Ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS-ENS) are compared using a multi-dimensional evaluation framework. Within this framework, the uncertainty is interpreted as the linear subspace spanned by the ensemble members in phase space, from which various geometric properties are extracted. As revealed by the analysis, the error does not entirely lie in this subspace, but is reasonably well calibrated in all directions. Moreover, the framework allows to quantify that this subspace critically depends on the number of ensemble members, suggesting that the current setups only partially represent the uncertainty subspace. This phase-space interpretation furthermore allows a direct comparison of the error-representation patterns of AIFS-ENS and IFS by computing the principal angles between the subspaces: IFS and AIFS ensemble subspaces do not entirely overlap in phase space, even though they were shown to have similar abilities to represent the amplitude and the structure of the error.

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Martin Bonte, Stéphane Vannitsem. 2026-10-12. Multivariate phase-space interpretation of ensemble forecasts: A comparison of physical and AI models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16422

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