Mergers may not be the main channel for galaxy stellar mass growth at redshift $z\gtrsim5$: Predictions from cosmological hierarchical models and simulations

Abstract

Mergers are a crucial channel of galaxy growth, but their role relative to star formation remains uncertain at high redshift. Here we investigate merger rates and merger-driven stellar mass assembly for galaxies with stellar mass $M_\star \gtrsim 10^8 \, {\rm M_{\odot}}$ at $z\simeq 5-11$, by combining complementary theoretical approaches within $Λ$CDM. These include the DECODE semi-empirical model, the TNG100 and EAGLE hydrodynamical simulations, and the \textsc{L-Galaxies} semi-analytical model, together with the Millennium and TNG100-Dark simulations used to examine dark matter subhalo statistics and merger timescales. This compares models with different treatments of baryonic physics and galaxy-halo connections. We find that dark matter-only simulations predict merger timescales $\sim 30\%$ longer than those inferred from cosmological simulations including baryons. Galaxy major merger ($M_{\rm \star,sat} / M_{\rm \star,cen} > 0.25$) rates are high at cosmic dawn and increase towards earlier epochs, reaching $\sim 1/{\rm Gyr}$ at $z\sim 5$ and peaking at $\sim 3/{\rm Gyr}$ at $z\sim 8$. Despite these high rates, mergers contribute only $\lesssim 10\%$ of the total cosmic stellar mass density evolution. The ex-situ stellar mass fraction ranges from a few percent to $\sim 20\%$ for all galaxies at $z\gtrsim 5$, across different models and simulations. Their broad agreement implies that stellar mass assembly at cosmic dawn is dominated by in-situ star formation rather than mergers. These findings suggest that the high pair fractions identified by JWST may not directly trace efficient ex-situ stellar mass growth, highlighting the need for physically motivated merger timescales to interpret galaxy assembly in the early Universe.