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arXiv · 2610.18114

3D Global Climate Simulations of Synthetic Mars Warming

Tom N. Landefeld·Harald Lesch
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Abstract

Artificial warming via engineered aerosols presents a novel pathway to bypass volatile scarcity on modern Mars. Utilizing the Generic Planetary Climate Model, we evaluate the physical feasibility of aerosol-induced terraforming over a full Martian year (669 Sols). Unlike previous approaches that added aerosols to background dust or assumed continuous nanoparticle injection, we simulate the complete substitution of natural dust with a single-injection profile of radiatively active aluminium nanoparticles without continuous dumping. This tests whether initial infrared greenhouse forcing can overcome the severe ice-albedo cooling induced by a massive regional water-ice sheet ($3400 \text{ kg/m}^2$) localized in the Hellas Basin. Comparing this scenario against an unperturbed control run, we analyze surface temperature dynamics, sublimation fluxes, and water vapour concentration. Our 3D global climate simulations quantify the radiative-dynamical feedback thresholds and determine whether engineered aerosol forcing can trigger a self-sustaining water-vapour greenhouse effect or remains fundamentally limited by regional ice-albedo suppression in Hellas.

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Tom N. Landefeld, Harald Lesch. 2026-10-13. 3D Global Climate Simulations of Synthetic Mars Warming. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18114

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