Data-Driven Surrogate-Model for Real-Time Loads Prediction in Floating Wind Farms

Federico Bellini; Majid Ebrahimi; Alessandro Fontanella; Marcus Becker; Jan-Willem Van Wingerden; Sara Muggiasca; Marco Belloli

arXiv · 2610.18264

Data-Driven Surrogate-Model for Real-Time Loads Prediction in Floating Wind Farms

Federico Bellini·Majid Ebrahimi·Alessandro Fontanella·Marcus Becker·Jan-Willem Van Wingerden·Sara Muggiasca·Marco Belloli

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Abstract

This work presents a data-driven load-surrogate modelling framework for real-time control of floating offshore wind farms. The proposed methodology uses mid-fidelity simulations performed with OpenFAST and FAST.Farm together with MLife fatigue analysis to generate Damage Equivalent Load (DEL) datasets of floating wind turbines under wake steering conditions. A two-stage surrogate modelling approach is adopted: first, a Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN) is trained using data from simulations of a single floating wind turbine, while a second stage corrects the residual error between the FFNN predictions and FAST.Farm simulations using either Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) or an additional FFNN. The results show that the proposed framework can estimate DELs with errors generally below 15% for tower base bending moment, blade root bending moment, yaw bearing moment, and fairlead tension, while maintaining computational times compatible with real-time applications. The study also highlights the challenges related to generalization of the load-surrogate model under varying environmental and control conditions, especially for large floating wind farms. Overall, the proposed methodology demonstrates the potential of surrogate-based DEL estimation for load-aware floating wind farm control applications.

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Federico Bellini, Majid Ebrahimi, Alessandro Fontanella, Marcus Becker, Jan-Willem Van Wingerden, Sara Muggiasca, Marco Belloli. 2026-10-13. Data-Driven Surrogate-Model for Real-Time Loads Prediction in Floating Wind Farms. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18264

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