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arXiv · 2610.18414

Revisiting the Estimation of Unigram Surprisal in Computational Psycholinguistics

Zachary Hopton·Francesco Ignazio Re·Samuel Kiegeland·Andreas Opedal·Eleanor Chodroff·Ryan Cotterell
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Abstract

Contextual and unigram surprisal are standard predictors of reading time in computational psycholinguistics. While contextual surprisal is typically derived from neural language models, unigram surprisal is usually obtained from independent corpus counts. Although both quantities are deterministic functionals of a single underlying distribution---capturing conditional and marginal structure respectively---this practice breaks their probabilistic link and may introduce estimation error from the mismatch. We propose three principles for estimating unigram surprisal in psycholinguistic research, including the requirement that both quantities be derived from the same language model. We operationalize this principle by introducing a Monte Carlo estimator of unigram surprisal from a language model, along with a marginalized variant that has lower variance empirically. When unigram surprisal is re-estimated under this unified framework, we find evidence that predictors change in their predictive contribution to reading time. We also confirm prior findings that frequency can be a stronger predictor of processing effort than contextual surprisal under this unified framework.

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Zachary Hopton, Francesco Ignazio Re, Samuel Kiegeland, Andreas Opedal, Eleanor Chodroff, Ryan Cotterell. 2026-10-13. Revisiting the Estimation of Unigram Surprisal in Computational Psycholinguistics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18414

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