Search arXiv⌕ Search

arXiv · 2610.18529

How Reliable Are System-One Decisions in Medicine? A Comparative Study of Jev, Jev-like Models, and LLMs

Abstract

Jev has attracted considerable attention for its rapid, generalizable decision-making, yet its medical reliability remains under explored. To address this gap, our study compares various types of system-one decision models across 15 medical datasets comprising 8,742 instances under a unified protocol. Beyond accuracy, we assess decision stability and the ability to recognize unreliable decisions. Our results show that Jev rivals leading models on primarily text-driven tasks but is less effective on numerically driven tasks, revealing a distinct capability boundary. Under question-format variations, Jev demonstrates strong robustness, achieving the lowest decision reversal rate and relatively small accuracy fluctuations. Among evaluated open-source alternatives, only StartLux exhibits comparable robustness. But these strengths do not extend to reliable abstention awareness: most evaluated models show limitations in both recognizing missing correct answers and using optional abstention. Moreover, we find that Jev's probability-based answer selection can be improved by changing how decisions are scored: normalizing option-wise binary scores yields higher retained accuracy than choice scoring. Taken together, our findings provide early guidance for improving and applying decision models in medicine.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Yanrui Du, Danyang Zhao, Sendong Zhao, Wenhao Li, Yibo Gao, Haochun Wang, Zhuoer Xu, Shiwen Cui, Bing Qin. 2026-10-13. How Reliable Are System-One Decisions in Medicine? A Comparative Study of Jev, Jev-like Models, and LLMs. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18529

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Multidimensional Consistency Improves Reasoning in Language Models

While Large language models (LLMs) have proved able to address some complex reasoning tasks, we also know that they are highly sensitive to input variation, which can lead to different solution paths and final answers. Answer consistency across input variations can thus be taken as a sign of stronger confidence. Leveraging this aspect, we introduce a framework where models are \textit{systematically pushed to diversify solution paths} towards a final answer, thereby testing them for answer consistency across multiple input variations. Focusing on math problems, we induce variations in (i) order of shots in prompt, (ii) problem phrasing, and (iii) languages used. Experiments on a wide range of open-source LLMs of various sizes show that reasoning consistency differs by variation dimension, and that by aggregating consistency across dimensions, our framework enhances mathematical reasoning performance on monolingual datasets GSM8K and MATH500, and the multilingual dataset MGSM. We also discuss the different efficacy of the types of variations induced and how they could be further leveraged in future work.

cs.CL↗

VQEL: Enabling Self-Play in Emergent Language Games via Agent-Internal Vector Quantization

Emergent Language (EL) focuses on the emergence of communication among artificial agents. Although symbolic communication channels more closely mirror the discrete nature of human language, learning such protocols remains fundamentally difficult due to the non-differentiability of symbol sampling. Existing approaches typically rely on high-variance gradient estimators such as REINFORCE or on continuous relaxations such as Gumbel-Softmax, both of which suffer from limitations in training stability and scalability. Motivated by cognitive theories that emphasize intrapersonal processes preceding communication, we explore self-play as a substrate for language emergence prior to mutual interaction. We introduce Vector Quantized Emergent Language (VQEL), a novel architecture that incorporates vector quantization into the message generation process. VQEL enables agents to perform self-play using discrete internal representations derived from a learned codebook while preserving end-to-end differentiability. Moreover, the resulting vector-quantized codebook naturally induces a symbolic vocabulary that can be directly transferred and aligned during subsequent mutual play with other agents. Empirical results show that agents pretrained via VQEL self-play achieve more consistent symbol alignment and higher task success when later engaged in mutual interaction. These findings position self-play as a principled and effective mechanism for learning discrete communication protocols, addressing key optimization and representational challenges in emergent language systems.

cs.CL↗

FailureSensorIQ: A Multi-Choice QA Dataset for Understanding Sensor Relationships and Failure Modes

We introduce FailureSensorIQ, a novel Multi-Choice Question-Answering (MCQA) benchmarking system designed to assess the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason and understand complex, domain-specific scenarios in Industry 4.0. Unlike traditional QA benchmarks, our system focuses on multiple aspects of reasoning through failure modes, sensor data, and the relationships between them across various industrial assets. Through this work, we envision a paradigm shift where modeling decisions are not only data-driven using statistical tools like correlation analysis and significance tests, but also domain-driven by specialized LLMs which can reason about the key contributors and useful patterns that can be captured with feature engineering. We evaluate the Industrial knowledge of over a dozen LLMs-including GPT-4, Llama, and Mistral-on FailureSensorIQ from different lens using Perturbation-Uncertainty-Complexity analysis, Expert Evaluation study, Asset-Specific Knowledge Gap analysis, ReAct agent using external knowledge-bases. Even though closed-source models with strong reasoning capabilities approach expert-level performance, the comprehensive benchmark reveals a significant drop in performance that is fragile to perturbations, distractions, and inherent knowledge gaps in the models. We also provide a real-world case study of how LLMs can drive the modeling decisions on 3 different failure prediction datasets related to various assets. We release: (a) expert-curated MCQA for various industrial assets, (b) FailureSensorIQ benchmark and Hugging Face leaderboard based on MCQA built from non-textual data found in ISO documents, and (c) LLMFeatureSelector, an LLM-based feature selection scikit-learn pipeline. The software is available at https://github.com/IBM/FailureSensorIQ.

cs.CL↗