A Multipatch Model for Evaluating Interdivisional Connectivity and Vaccination Dynamics in the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak

Faizunnesa Khondaker; Md. Kamrujjaman

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arXiv · 2610.18911

A Multipatch Model for Evaluating Interdivisional Connectivity and Vaccination Dynamics in the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak

Faizunnesa Khondaker·Md. Kamrujjaman

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Abstract

The 2026 measles resurgence in Bangladesh motivates a spatial modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneous local transmission, vaccination activity, and interdivisional connectivity. We formulate a multipatch susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered model for the eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh. Division-specific parameters are estimated from reported measles cases \cite{DGHS} and smoothed vaccination data using bounded nonlinear least squares, with uncertainty quantified through 1000 parametric bootstrap replicates. The fitted divisional systems are then connected through compartment-specific movement and cross-patch infection coefficients adjusted for connectivity and the source division's relative reproduction number. The fitted model captures the main division-specific epidemic patterns. Estimated local reproduction numbers range from $1.1386$ in Khulna (95\% CI:$0.5703$--$1.3834$) to $4.3491$ in Dhaka (95\% CI: $1.4449$--$5.6307$), while Chattogram also exhibits high transmission potential ($\mathcal{R}_0^i=4.2275$; 95\% CI: $4.0019$--$4.3185$). Baseline spatial coupling increases the network-wide epidemic peak from $190.96$ to $313.20$ infectious individuals and more than doubles cumulative infections from $1086.42$ to $2345.35$. Relative to baseline coupling, 50\% and 80\% restrictions reduce the epidemic peak by $26.69\%$ and $34.37\%$, and cumulative infections by $25.07\%$ and $41.48\%$, respectively. Conversely, a 50\% increase in spatial coupling raises the peak by $30.14\%$ and cumulative infections by $23.54\%$. Although local transmission remains dominant in every division, cross-patch infection accounts for $28.83\%$ of new infections in Rajshahi at the baseline epidemic peak. Source-sink analysis identifies Dhaka as the dominant cross-patch source and Chattogram as a smaller secondary source.

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Faizunnesa Khondaker, Md. Kamrujjaman. 2026-10-12. A Multipatch Model for Evaluating Interdivisional Connectivity and Vaccination Dynamics in the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18911

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