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arXiv · 2610.20184

Galaxy-to-galaxy stochasticity has a limited impact on reionization and the 21-cm signal at fixed mean emissivity

Shihai Zhu·Yuxiang Qin
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Abstract

Galaxy-to-galaxy stochasticity may be less important for reionization, IGM heating, and the 21-cm signal than commonly assumed. We find that most of its apparent impact arises because introducing or removing scatter changes the mean emissivity of the galaxy population, rather than from redistributing radiation at fixed mean emissivity. We use the Meraxes semi-analytic model to separate these effects. For ionising sources, we vary the scatter in the escape fraction and in the SFR-halo mass relation across three source prescriptions. For the X-ray heating sources, we introduce luminosity scatter and also separately remove SFR scatter. Without recalibration, these modifications shift the mean emissivities, changing the timing of reionization and IGM heating and producing substantial differences in the 21-cm signal. Once the relevant mean emissivities are restored, however, the global ionizing and thermal histories converge and the power-spectrum differences fall below the forecast sensitivity of a deep SKA-Low observation. There are some weak changes in ionisation morphology, depending on which galaxies dominate the ionising emissivity and on their response to photoheating. Within the models and scales considered here, calibrating the mean radiative emissivities is therefore substantially more important than resolving their galaxy-to-galaxy scatter.

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Shihai Zhu, Yuxiang Qin. 2026-10-14. Galaxy-to-galaxy stochasticity has a limited impact on reionization and the 21-cm signal at fixed mean emissivity. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.20184

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