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arXiv · 2610.21219

Using Heteroscedasticity for Causal Discovery under Hidden Confounding

Jing Zou·Wei Li·Wei Lin
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Abstract

The presence of hidden confounding in observational studies poses a fundamental challenge to the identification and estimation of causal structures encoded by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). While instrumental variables (IVs) have been widely used to address hidden confounding, most existing methods require valid instruments, which may be unavailable in practice. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for causal discovery and inference in DAGs that accommodates both hidden confounding and invalid IVs by exploiting heteroscedasticity. We establish a novel linear characterization of leaf nodes through heteroscedasticity-induced relationships between cross-covariance and self-covariance vectors, enabling recursive recovery of the causal order without requiring any candidate IV to be valid. Given the identified order, we then sequentially construct surrogate IVs to identify the causal effects and directions, thereby recovering the entire DAG. We also propose a data-adaptive procedure for estimating the DAG and causal effects. We show that the proposed method consistently recovers the underlying DAG and yields asymptotically normal estimators of causal effects. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate substantial improvements over existing methods. We further illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method through an application to gene regulatory network analysis.

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Jing Zou, Wei Li, Wei Lin. 2026-10-15. Using Heteroscedasticity for Causal Discovery under Hidden Confounding. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21219

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