Known Music, Unknown Response: Leakage-Audited Dynamic Arousal Forecasting With Scheduled Future Music

Abstract

Dynamic music emotion recognition usually estimates concurrent or lag-aligned labels from audio that has already been observed. We instead forecast the change in consensus arousal when the upcoming music is scheduled but all later affect labels remain hidden. Evaluation holds out complete songs, encodes each eligible 4-s chunk independently, predicts arousal innovation, and compares the correct future with displaced segments from the same song. On PMEmo and a 1,494-song DEAM evaluation pool excluded from engineering development, a complete past/future MuQ representation raises concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) by 0.389--0.507 over recent affect and remains 0.268--0.382 above a calibrated nonlinear state model. A future-only trajectory contains no past or current audio and still exceeds that state model by 0.150--0.249. The earliest legal future chunk, which ends 5.5--11 s before the target, also remains informative. Correct placement exceeds an overlapping 5-s shift by 0.100--0.209 and the acoustic-nearest eligible same-song segment by 0.078--0.105, with positive song-cluster lower bounds. These results show that both scheduled content and its within-song position carry forecast information under the stated observation rules. The study provides a leakage-controlled reference for known-future music forecasting without treating predictive substitutions as causal interventions.