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arXiv · 2610.23095

Time-optimal vaccination in state-dependent SIR models: a single switch criterion and numerical examples outside its regime

Yeachan Park·Jiwoong Jang·Yeoneung Kim
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Abstract

In a susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) model with constant rates, a time-optimal vaccination policy has at most one switch from no vaccination to maximal vaccination. We allow the transmission and recovery rates $β(S,I)$ and $γ(S,I)$ to depend on the state. If $β+I\partial_Iβ>0$ and $G:=\partial_S(βS-γ)>0$ throughout the forward invariant state space, then every optimal control is bang-bang with at most one switch. The incidence condition allows the transmission coefficient to decrease with prevalence. The Pontryagin analysis shows that $G$, the sensitivity of per capita infected growth to the susceptible fraction, and the infected costate together determine the crossing direction of the switching function. We also prove existence of an optimal control, derive explicit a priori upper bounds on the eradication time and characterize the switching time by an optimization over one variable. For parameter sets that violate $G>0$, numerical optimization gives controls with two switches and smaller eradication times than the computed minima over the single switch family. These computations provide a reproducible numerical counterexample to an unrestricted single switch claim. In a prescribed parameter sweep satisfying $G>0$, delayed vaccination reduces the eradication time relative to immediate full vaccination by more than $1\%$ in $10.9\%$ of the cases, with a maximum reduction of $26.3\%$. In examples near this maximum, the delay increases peak prevalence by more than an order of magnitude and cumulative incidence more than fourfold. Hence minimizing eradication time does not in general minimize epidemiological burden.

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Yeachan Park, Jiwoong Jang, Yeoneung Kim. 2026-10-16. Time-optimal vaccination in state-dependent SIR models: a single switch criterion and numerical examples outside its regime. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.23095

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