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arXiv · 2610.28866

Are New Parties Shut Out of the UK House of Commons?

Guy P. Nason
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Abstract

In recent years it has been claimed that new political parties are shut out of the UK House of Commons because they are rarely elected. At the same time, general political understanding seems to be that the House of Commons is currently further away from a pure two-party distribution of seats than at any time in the past century, perhaps longer. Although this might seem like a paradox it is possible for both of these things to have credence. We present an analysis that shows that the number of new political parties elected to the House of Commons has been slowly declining over the last century. We illustrate this both by regression and Good-Turing analyses. We also analyse the lifetime and persistence of political parties as well as present metrics that indicate the recent increased political diversity and identify the nadir of diversity in the mid-1960s and early 1970s.

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Guy P. Nason. 2026-10-20. Are New Parties Shut Out of the UK House of Commons?. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28866

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