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arXiv · 2610.29288

Time-Uniform Dependent Central Limit Theory

Mingxuan Ge·Yanlong Liu
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Abstract

We establish a near-optimal almost sure invariance principle for nonstationary time series under the functional dependence measure (FDM) framework. This result yields a universal time-uniform dependent central limit theorem, which serves as the basis for anytime-valid inference. In particular, we instantiate the theorem through asymptotic confidence sequences (AsympCSs), time-uniform counterparts of asymptotic confidence intervals obtained via central limit theorems, extending those originally proposed in Waudby-Smith et al. (2024) to time series with serial dependence. We further refine their definition because, as we show, it can admit AsympCSs that fail to achieve the desired asymptotic time-uniform coverage for a broad class of data-generating processes, including independent and identically distributed cases. We address this issue by adding a simple eventual-inclusion condition, which in turn permits more flexible variance estimation, particularly useful in time-series settings. For feasible implementation of AsympCSs, we establish strong consistency of HAC variance estimators under the FDM framework, accommodating a wider range of commonly used bandwidth choices than existing results under mixing conditions. As illustrations, we construct AsympCSs for algorithms with Markovian structure and time-series-based causal estimands.

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Mingxuan Ge, Yanlong Liu. 2026-10-21. Time-Uniform Dependent Central Limit Theory. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29288

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