Selective Monocular Precession Estimation under Geometric and Evaluation Ambiguity: An Auditable Synthetic Study with ORBIT-SCOUT

Abstract

Monocular observations of a tumbling object can support a precise fitted trajectory without establishing that the recovered physical axis is correct. We study this distinction for elongated, approximately cylindrical targets observed by a calibrated stationary camera. ORBIT-SCOUT couples image-derived line and rim geometry to constant-cone and torque-free triaxial trajectory families, then returns a linked momentum-axis and mean-precession-rate estimate only when numerical, geometric, temporal and competing-hypothesis checks pass. We describe the measurement objective, selection policy and limitations, and situate them within spacecraft pose estimation, unknown-target reconstruction, rigid-body identification and selective prediction. An internally preregistered population of 96 new synthetic scenes was processed in two cold passes, retaining all 192 attempts. In the primary pass, 38 scenes produced jointly correct estimates, none produced an incorrect estimate, 57 were withheld and one execution was incomplete. Correct coverage on the 64 supported scenes was 25/64. Ninety-five repeated pairs were scientifically equivalent under a frozen comparison policy; the remaining pair was incomplete. The registered coverage, failure-free execution and all-case repeatability targets were not met. Historical audits also exposed an overly permissive axis metric and motion-dependent acquisition cadence. The contribution is a documented measurement-to-decision implementation and a failure-preserving evaluation case study, not a new rigid-body theory or evidence of state-of-the-art accuracy. Zero observed errors does not establish calibrated risk, and conditional temporal checks do not remove shared image-feature bias. Real-image transfer and external reproduction remain open.