4D sensitivity kernels for infrasound atmospheric propagation: considering the need and impact of time dependent observation operators for acoustic wave observations in data assimilation methods

Abstract

The long range propagation of acoustic waves in Earth's atmosphere is sensitive to winds and temperature variations in the upper atmosphere. Thus, infrasound observations have a strong potential to improve numerical weather models by data assimilation methods. However, because acoustic waves propagate slowly, the atmospheric parameters can change during the propagation of the acoustic waves. This change of atmosphere properties is usually not taken into account by infrasound simulation tools which generally assume stationary atmosphere models. In order to close this modeling gap, we present here a method to compute the linear sensitivities of infrasound observables to atmospheric parameters varying both in space and time. We show that adjoint based methods can easily handle this computation of 4D sensitivity kernels, also called time variable observation operators in the data assimilation community. Then, we discuss the capabilities of various data assimilation methods to handle such observation operators. We demonstrate that only variational methods with data assimilation windows longer than the propagation duration of the long range infrasound can accommodate these observations, as well as their ensemble counterparts. Finally, we demonstrate the benefit of assimilating such long range infrasound observations, and we quantify the relative impact of linear approximation of observation operators and stationary approximation of the atmosphere model by assimilating propagation time observations of circumnavigating Lamb waves in Lorenz'96 low-order model. The results of this data assimilation experiment demonstrate that the time variability of atmospheric parameters should be taken into account even for infrasound propagation times limited to 2 or 3 time steps of the atmosphere model.