Revisiting Temporal Link Prediction through Structural Proximity

Abstract

Existing temporal link prediction methods typically rely on learned temporal representations to capture evolving interaction patterns. In this paper, we show that a classical structural proximity measure can match or outperform these methods without training or learned temporal sequence modeling. We revisit Personalized PageRank (PPR) on historical interaction graphs, using simple sliding-window retention or exponential time decay. Surprisingly, across 14 datasets, Time-decay PPR ranks first on nine and second on four among the compared methods, including datasets with few repeated edges. To understand this result, we examine the historical paths connecting source nodes to previously unseen destinations. We find that such paths contain useful predictive information, and that PPR outperforms a strong neural baseline on queries where historical structure clearly distinguishes the true destination from negative candidates. These results show that strong performance on current benchmarks does not necessarily require complex temporal models. More fundamentally, they raise the question of how much predictive value learned temporal modeling adds beyond historical structural proximity. Our findings motivate reassessing progress in temporal link prediction with strong classical baselines.