Stochastic dengue outbreak modeling and study using nonlinear analytical techniques

Abstract

One of the present challenges of dengue outbreak is the real data driven modeling of the disease transmission dynamics which can capture the complex dynamical characteristics for accurate prediction and control. However, the conventional validation of such model is primarily based on statistical agreement between model simulated and reported incidence trajectories. In this work, we propose a seasonally driven stochastic dengue transmission model which is the modified stochastic version of the deterministic SEIR-SEI dengue outbreak model. The simulation of the proposed model is done using classical stochastic simulation algorithm. Then, the model validation is done by comparing these simulated data with the reported laboratory confirmed dengue incidence data at Imphal West district, Manipur for the three consecutive years (2023-2025) by systematic analysis using various nonlinear dynamical validation techniques. The model's performance is evaluated using coefficient of determination and relative error (RE), followed by sensitivity analysis to assess parameter robustness. The calibrated model successfully reproduces the reported outbreak trajectories for all the three years, achieving coefficients of determination greater than 0.96 and relative error less than 7%. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the transmission activation time is the most important transmission modulation parameter influencing calibration performance. Both the complexity-entropy and recurrence analyses show that the calibrated stochastic model captures substantial features of the temporal organization of the reported outbreak while retaining measurable significant differences in higher-order dynamical measures and providing complimentary information beyond conventional goodness of fit measures and offer a more comprehensive framework for validating stochastic epidemic models.