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arXiv · 2610.38866

Early warning of critical transitions: Distinguishing supercritical and subcritical bifurcations from noisy observations

Paul A. Sanders·Christian Kuehn·Bastian Hilder·Robbin Bastiaansen
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Abstract

Early-warning methods can indicate that a system is approaching a loss of stability, but they do not usually reveal whether the approaching bifurcation is supercritical or subcritical. We investigate whether this distinction can be made from noisy pre-transition observations. For this investigation, we extend a regression-based stability method by including the leading cubic nonlinear term, whose sign is used to predict the bifurcation type. We test the method on a stochastic pitchfork model and a spatial stochastic Swift-Hohenberg equation. In both models, classification improves with longer observation horizons, closer proximity to the bifurcation, stronger noise, and larger nonlinear effects. However, these conditions are also linked to a higher risk of noise-induced tipping in the subcritical case. The useful early-warning window is therefore determined by a balance between obtaining enough information to identify the bifurcation type and doing so before noise-induced tipping becomes too likely. In spatially extended systems, we find that observing the full spatial field allows classification over shorter observation horizons, and performance improves when a broader range of spatial modes contributes to the observed dynamics. Altogether, we identify the conditions under which the method can reliably distinguish between supercritical and subcritical bifurcations.

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Paul A. Sanders, Christian Kuehn, Bastian Hilder, Robbin Bastiaansen. 2026-10-28. Early warning of critical transitions: Distinguishing supercritical and subcritical bifurcations from noisy observations. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38866

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