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arXiv · 2610.39393

Advance identification of where the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake would begin

K. Z. Nanjo·J. B. Rundle·D. Iwata·J. Izutsu·M. Kamogawa
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Abstract

Long-term forecasts say how likely a fault segment is to rupture, not where the rupture will begin. The b-value, the slope of the earthquake size distribution, falls as stress rises. After the 2016 Kumamoto sequence in Japan, b-values rose along the ruptured faults but fell in the unruptured central part of the Hinagu fault zone, which we identified in 2019 as where the next rupture was most likely to begin. The 2026 M7.1 Kumamoto earthquake began at the edge of this area, inside the low-b-value volume at 16 km depth. To our knowledge, this is the first starting point of a large earthquake named in print beforehand. The rupture stopped at a fault bend where b-values have stayed low since 2000 and raised Coulomb stress on faults beyond it; the low-b-value zone at this bend is where the next rupture is most likely to begin.

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K. Z. Nanjo, J. B. Rundle, D. Iwata, J. Izutsu, M. Kamogawa. 2026-10-29. Advance identification of where the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake would begin. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39393

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