Reconstructing Missing Mandi Prices in North-East India with Regional Factors

Pritam Deka

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2610.39949

Reconstructing Missing Mandi Prices in North-East India with Regional Factors

Pritam Deka

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Agricultural price panels contain prolonged and clustered reporting gaps, yet their reconstruction is often evaluated by deleting isolated observations. We investigate a regional-factor approach to weekly mandi-price reconstruction in five North-East Indian states, with Bihar and Goa as additional comparison states. The model combines a common price path with persistent market-specific deviations; an adaptive ensemble weights alternative borrowing structures using internally masked reports. On a matched retrospective benchmark against ten baselines, pooled North-East mean absolute percentage error is 19.3%, compared with 26.5% for SAITS. The corresponding calendar-aligned panel/time-block bootstrap interval for the error difference is 2.8-12.7 percentage points. Removing the target state's monthly aggregate leaves pooled error at 19.4%, but eliminates the apparent advantage in Goa. An origin-restricted pipeline combining week-close input processing with revised ensemble validation yields 19.7% error, compared with 30.8% for carry-forward; this contrast does not isolate individual pipeline changes. Gains vary across states, and uncertainty intervals remain too narrow in several small panels. These findings support further study of structured retrospective reconstruction, not deployment claims: model development used earlier results, publication dates for monthly inputs are assumed, and confirmatory evaluation on untouched data remains outstanding.

Explore related subjects

cs.CY

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Pritam Deka. 2026-10-29. Reconstructing Missing Mandi Prices in North-East India with Regional Factors. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39949

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Strategic Integration of Artificial Intelligence in the C-Suite: The Role of the Chief AI Officer

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into corporate strategy has become critical for organizations seeking to maintain competitive advantage in the digital age. Although organizations increasingly rely on AI as a strategic and organizational resource, existing C-suite roles remain only partially equipped to govern, integrate, and leverage it coherently at the enterprise level. Organizations vary in their responses. Some create a dedicated Chief AI Officer (CAIO), others extend existing mandates into hybrid roles, and still others coordinate AI through federated structures. This paper develops a role-design theory to explain this variation. I identify three properties that distinguish AI systems from earlier cross-cutting enterprise technologies, distributed accountability for judgment, upstream governance, and non-stationarity, and three configurations through which organizations respond: concentrated extension, distributed extension, and role creation. Four propositions specify when a dedicated CAIO emerges, what form an organization's response takes, when the role is effective, and how configurations evolve. Drawing on the first archival census of executive AI leadership, I find that the role has diffused sharply since 2023, that role creation and mandate extension are advancing in near parity, that adoption concentrates where digital leadership structures already exist, and that executive tenures contradict practitioner accounts of a transient role. The paper contributes to research on executive leadership, AI governance, and the design of AI-driven organizations.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

ReasonX: Declarative Reasoning on Explanations

Explaining opaque Machine Learning (ML) models has become an increasingly important challenge. However, current eXplanation in AI (XAI) methods suffer several shortcomings, including insufficient abstraction, limited user interactivity, and inadequate integration of symbolic knowledge. We propose ReasonX, an explanation tool based on expressions (or, queries) in a closed algebra of operators over theories of linear constraints. ReasonX provides declarative and interactive explanations for decision trees, which may represent the ML models under analysis or serve as global or local surrogate models for tabular-data black-box classifiers. Users can express background or common sense knowledge as linear constraints. This allows for reasoning at multiple levels of abstraction, ranging from fully specified examples to under-specified or partially constrained ones. ReasonX leverages Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) to reason over the features of factual and contrastive instances. We present here the architecture of ReasonX, which consists of a Python layer, closer to the user, and a Constraint Logic Programming (CLP) layer, which implements a meta-interpreter of the query algebra. The capabilities of ReasonX are demonstrated through qualitative examples, and compared to other XAI tools through quantitative experiments.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

No Certificate, No Categorical Speech Act: A Brouwerian Assertibility Constraint for Public Reason

Generative AI can convert uncertainty into authoritative-seeming verdicts, displacing the justificatory work on which democratic epistemic agency depends. As a corrective, I propose a Brouwer-inspired assertibility constraint for responsible AI: in high-stakes domains, systems may assert or deny claims only if they can provide a publicly inspectable and contestable certificate of entitlement; otherwise they must return Undetermined. This constraint yields a three-status interface semantics (Asserted, Denied, Undetermined) whose statuses mark entitlement to categorical speech rather than truth values of the underlying world-claim. The framework distinguishes internal entitlement from public standing while connecting them through the certificate as a boundary object. Philosophically, it develops a form of applied intuitionism: resistance to unwarranted completeness becomes a norm of public machine speech, under which categorical commitment requires exhibited and contestable entitlement. I operationalize the constraint through structured certificates, decision-layer gates for threshold and argmax predicates, and a reason-coded output contract. A design lemma shows that, under a refutation-soundness condition on the contractually specified negative side, certificate-sound binary totality presupposes witnessed decidability on the declared scope. Under the proposed normative output contract, Undetermined is not a tunable reject option but a mandatory status whenever the available certificates do not uniquely license assertion or denial. By making outputs answerable to contestable warrants rather than confidence alone, the paper aims to preserve epistemic agency where automated speech enters public justification.

cs.CY↗