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arXiv · 2610.41042

A System Dynamics Model for Zero-emission Heavy Vehicle Transition in Australia

Elnaz Irannezhad·Seyed Hossein Hosseini·David A. Hensher
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Abstract

What would it take to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission trucks? Even if battery electric trucks become cheaper to own over their lifetime than diesel trucks, that alone is not enough. This study develops a system dynamics model of rigid and articulated truck fleets, calibrated to Australian fleets. Under current policy regimes, more than a third of the fleet still runs on diesel in 2050. Battery and fuel cell trucks become as attractive as diesel trucks only in 2031-2032, held back by slow fleet turnover and by how long operators take to trust the charging network, the most influential assumption tested in this study. Taxing diesel barely works at politically feasible levels. Charging trucks the full fuel excise lifts the zero-emission share by one percentage point; adding ten points would require a road user charge of about 5 AUD per litre, fifteen times the 2025-26 rate. A 70 AUD per tonne carbon price and a purchase subsidy covering 60% of the price premium do little better. Per percentage change in cost, operating-cost support is five to six times as effective as purchase support, yet the best single instrument adds only two percentage points. Only a combined push-pull package, which still raises fuel-tax revenue, shifts the market materially. Policy should stop relying on diesel prices and instead build operators' confidence in the network, cut operating costs and recycle road-charge revenue into infrastructure.

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Elnaz Irannezhad, Seyed Hossein Hosseini, David A. Hensher. 2026-10-29. A System Dynamics Model for Zero-emission Heavy Vehicle Transition in Australia. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41042

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