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arXiv · 2610.41238

Frequency-Calibrated Decision-Focused Learning for BESS Dispatch Under Renewable Uncertainty

Zihan Meng·Chenxi Hu·Xin Cui·Francis Yunhe Hou
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Abstract

Battery energy storage system (BESS) flexibility depends on state of charge and intertemporal operating constraints. Renewable forecast errors of similar magnitudes can lead to different BESS dispatch results. An error may alter early charging or discharging decisions and reduce the flexibility available for subsequent regulation, while another may have little effect on the resulting schedule. To account for these unequal consequences, this paper proposes Frequency-Calibrated Decision-Focused Learning (FC-DFL), which trains renewable predictors using the realized operating costs of their induced BESS schedules. Gaussian smoothing and solver-based zeroth-order estimation provide training feedback without requiring differentiating through the non-differentiable mixed-integer BESS dispatch problem. The same decision feedback is further combined with prediction sensitivity to develop a decision-oriented XAI method that identifies the input features and forecast periods most consequential to BESS operation. Case studies using German wind and solar data show that FC-DFL reduces the integrated absolute frequency-deviation metric by 6.05% and decision regret by 23.92% relative to accuracy-based predict-then-optimize method. The XAI analysis further demonstrates that the identified high-impact forecast periods produce 2.84 times larger average absolute changes in realized operating cost than low-impact periods. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating downstream decision-making outcomes into renewable forecasting and demonstrate the value of FC-DFL in improving BESS regulation and providing operationally meaningful forecast explanations.

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BibTeXRIS

Zihan Meng, Chenxi Hu, Xin Cui, Francis Yunhe Hou. 2026-10-30. Frequency-Calibrated Decision-Focused Learning for BESS Dispatch Under Renewable Uncertainty. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41238

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