Spectral Beurling-Selberg Approximation and Applications to Effective Motivic Chebotarev-Sato-Tate Estimates

Abstract

We establish a spectral Beurling-Selberg approximation theorem on compact connected Riemannian manifolds for sets whose boundaries have finite upper Minkowski content. Our majorants and minorants have controlled spectral coefficients and explicit stability under Hausdorff perturbations, uniformly over families satisfying a common Minkowski content bound. We extend the construction to singular spaces arising from Riemannian submetries with basic mean curvature, and apply it to equidistribution on quaternionic Shimura varieties. Assuming the conjectural formalism of the specified motivic L-functions, including the motivic Riemann hypothesis, we develop effective Chebotarev-Sato-Tate estimates for fixed sets and varying families with controlled boundary geometry and Hausdorff variation, and describe how additional symmetries improve the error exponents. The proofs combine classical analytic methods with new methods from differential geometry, analytic geometry, and Riemannian spectral analysis. Applications include an asymptotic formula for a motivic analogue of Atkin-Serre estimates and tubular estimates for Picard-rank jumps of K3 surfaces via their transcendental motives.