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arXiv · 2611.02218

Beyond Ensemble Disagreement: Predictive STL Monitoring of RL Locomotion under Distribution Shift

Qurban Ali·Badaruddin Chachar·Maqsood Ali·Sajjad Ali Rajper
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Abstract

RL locomotion policies trained under nominal simulation conditions may encounter distribution shifts that compromise safety. Predictive monitors could anticipate violations, but their world-model forecasts may become unreliable under shift, and ensemble disagreement is not calibrated. We evaluate predictive Signal Temporal Logic (STL) monitoring for frozen Ant-v5 and HalfCheetah-v5 policies using closed-loop world-model rollouts and a three-model ensemble. Across external-force, observation-noise, and mass shifts, predicted robustness ranks HalfCheetah's future STL violations strongly, whereas disagreement does not reliably track observation prediction error or violations. Under severe noise, violations remain common ($64.2\pm24.4\%$ at $K{=}20$ across three PPO seeds), yet current-state robustness without prediction comes within $0.03$ AUROC of predictive robustness. Penalizing predicted robustness by disagreement does not consistently improve ranking. Ant provides complementary per-specification evidence, but its composite target has no positive violations and its any-violation target is single-class in most evaluated seed-condition slices. Overall, predictive robustness provides useful STL-specific ranking but little demonstrated additional ranking value over the current state; these findings caution against treating ensemble disagreement as a reliable indicator of safety uncertainty.

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Qurban Ali, Badaruddin Chachar, Maqsood Ali, Sajjad Ali Rajper. 2026-11-01. Beyond Ensemble Disagreement: Predictive STL Monitoring of RL Locomotion under Distribution Shift. https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.02218

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