Identifying the determinants of soccer coach turnover by competing risks models: a case study on Italian League Serie A

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of head coach turnover in the Italian Serie A over the period 2010-2019 by explicitly accounting for multiple exit mechanisms within a competing risks framework. Four mutually exclusive exit types are considered: end of contract, mutual consent, resignation, and sacking. To identify robust predictors of turnover, we combine classical cause-specific Cox models with a variable selection procedure based on forward selection, LASSO regression, and Random Survival Forests. The results show that performance-related variables are the primary drivers of coach turnover, while personal characteristics play a limited role once performance is controlled for. Short-term performance indicators, such as points per match until turnover, strongly influence the risk of dismissal. Conversely, cumulative poor performance substantially increases dismissal risk: a higher proportion of losses over a coach's tenure raises the hazard of sacking by more than four times. Season timing also plays a crucial role, as sackings and mutual-consent terminations are significantly more likely to occur during the season, whereas contract expirations concentrate at the end of the season. Overall, the findings highlight that clubs differentiate between short-term performance shocks and longer-term performance trajectories when deciding how and when to replace a head coach. By distinguishing among exit mechanisms and adopting a conservative variable selection strategy, the study provides a robust and nuanced assessment of managerial turnover dynamics in the most important Italian professional football league.