Closed-Loop Adaptive Sampling on a Generative Ocean Model

Abstract

Adaptive sampling can substantially improve the value of sparse ocean observations by directing mobile robots toward measurements that are most informative for an evolving environment. Recent learned generative ocean models can produce high-resolution forecasts and ensembles at substantially lower computational cost than traditional numerical models, creating an opportunity to use rich predictive forecasts directly in closed-loop robotic sampling. However, these models do not natively provide the explicit uncertainty representations assumed by classical informative-planning methods, and their forecasts often evolve in learned latent spaces rather than directly in physical ocean variables. We develop a multi-robot closed-loop adaptive sampling framework that uses a single learned generative model for forecasting, uncertainty estimation, planning, and measurement assimilation. The model forecasts an ensemble in latent space, decodes it to physical ocean states, and uses ensemble statistics to construct A- or D-optimal sampling objectives. We select sampling locations subject to robot reachability under predicted currents. The collected measurements are assimilated back into the latent state using observation-conditioned diffusion sampling. Across 120 test scenarios A- and D-optimal sampling generally outperforms static, random, and systematic-coverage baselines while adding little planning overhead. Our experiments uncover several scenarios in which model uncertainty diverges from forecast error, motivating future work in uncertainty quantification.