Correlation of the estimated arrival time of the relativistic solar ions at 1 AU and start of ground level enhancement (GLE)

Abstract

We are investigated possible correlations between the calculated arrival times of the first relativistic ions at Earth and GLE start times registered by surface monitors. The analysis is based on the arrival times and energies of the first solar ions, registered by the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) on board of the ACE satellite, and protons, registered by GOES satellites. We consider both cases when the interplanetary propagation of the first high energy ions is essentially scatter-free and the diffusion of high energy ions during propagation in the interplanetary magnetic field. We extrapolate the time-velocity and time-rigidity relationships to calculate the expected arrival times of the relativistic ions that are energetic enough to enter the atmosphere at the Aragats geographical location and produce secondary fluxes that reach the monitors.