A phenomenological description of quantum-gravity-induced space-time noise

Berwald-Finsler spacetimes are Finsler spacetimes that are closest to pseudo-Riemannian geometry, as their canonical nonlinear connection defines an affine connection on spacetime. In this paper, we find the first exact, non-Ricci flat, $SO(3)$-symmetric Berwald solutions to the Finsler gravity vacuum equation. To this aim, we first select from all spherically symmetric Berwald spacetimes, the only class that admits flat Finsler spacetime structures, making it particularly suitable for future investigations of asymptotic flatness. Then, for this class, we completely solve the Finsler gravity vacuum equation, and find three families of solutions. In particular, we show that in Finsler geometry there exist $SO(3)$-symmetric, vacuum solutions that are not Ricci-flat. These solutions are promising candidates to model the gravitational field around compact objects, beyond their Riemannian description.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Red noise and evolving signals: a complete frequentist approach to supermassive black hole binary searches with pulsar timing arrays

Searches for gravitational waves (GWs) from isolated supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) in pulsar timing array (PTA) data require simultaneous estimation of signal and noise parameters, so the dimensionality of the fit scales with the number of observed pulsars. This computational difficulty is exacerbated when source evolution from GW emission is included, since retaining both Earth and pulsar terms introduces the unknown pulsar distances. Existing frequentist methods such as the $\mathcal{F}$-statistic are restricted to non-evolving sources. In addition, they often rely on a noise covariance estimated from the same data and then held fixed during the signal search, which can bias parameter estimates. We present a Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test and the associated $\mathcal{T}$-statistic that overcomes the aforementioned limitations. This formulation extends earlier work in which the dimensionality of the fitting problem was drastically reduced by semi-analytical maximization of the likelihood over the pulsar phase parameters, followed by efficient global optimization over the remaining parameters using Particle Swarm Optimization. Our simulations demonstrate that for an evolving SMBHB signal with chirp mass $\mathcal{M}=10^{9.2} M_\odot$ and signal-to-noise ratio $20$, this detection statistic achieves a $100\%$ detection probability at a false-alarm probability of $0.06$ in a 30-pulsar timing array, which is characterized by a $100 \mathrm{ns}$ root-mean-square white noise residual and pulsar-specific red noise. For the 30-pulsar timing array at signal-to-noise ratio $10$ and false-alarm probability $0.06$, $\mathcal{T}$ detects $99/100$ realizations, outperforming the $\mathcal{F}_p$ statistic evaluated with the $H_0$-fitted covariance, which detects $71/100$ realizations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Universality in the Transition from Inspiral to Plunge for Extreme-Mass-Ratio-Inspirals: High-Accuracy Analytic Solutions and Catastrophe Theory

We revisit the transition from inspiral to plunge for extreme mass-ratio inspirals on quasi-circular, inclined orbits in Kerr spacetime from the perspective of catastrophe theory. Our goal is to uncover the mathematical structures underlying the universality of the transition dynamics, which remains governed by the same Painlevé I differential equation as for equatorial inspirals despite the additional complexity. We first analyze the solution of the Painlevé I equation selected by the physical boundary conditions of slowly evolving quasi-circular inspiral at early times. We argue that these conditions uniquely select the tritronquée solution of Painlevé I. We then compare existing high-accuracy analytic approximations of the tritronquée solution with direct numerical integrations of the Painlevé I equation, finding comparable accuracy and improved stability under differentiation and integration for the analytic solution. In the second part of this work, we show that the equilibrium structure of the Kerr radial effective potential admits a natural interpretation in terms of catastrophe theory. Equatorial orbits are associated with the fold catastrophe, while inclined orbits are described by the cusp catastrophe. In both cases, the transition to plunge corresponds to slow evolution across fold lines of the catastrophe manifold, providing a geometric explanation for the universal appearance of the Painlevé I equation in the transition dynamics.

gr-qc↗