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A critical branching process model for biodiversity

David J. Aldous·Lea Popovic
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Abstract

Motivated as a null model for comparison with data, we study the following model for a phylogenetic tree on $n$ extant species. The origin of the clade is a random time in the past, whose (improper) distribution is uniform on $(0,\infty)$. After that origin, the process of extinctions and speciations is a continuous-time critical branching process of constant rate, conditioned on having the prescribed number $n$ of species at the present time. We study various mathematical properties of this model as $n \to \infty$ limits: time of origin and of most recent common ancestor; pattern of divergence times within lineage trees; time series of numbers of species; number of extinct species in total, or ancestral to extant species; and "local" structure of the tree itself. We emphasize several mathematical techniques: associating walks with trees, a point process representation of lineage trees, and Brownian limits.

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David J. Aldous, Lea Popovic. 2004-10-18. A critical branching process model for biodiversity. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0410402

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