Dynamics of the Markov Time Scale of Seismic Activity May Provide a Short-Term Alert for Earthquakes

M. Reza Rahimi Tabar; Muhammad Sahimi; K. Kaviani; M. Allamehzadeh; J. Peinke; M. Mokhtari; M. Vesaghi; M. D. Niry; F. Ghasemi; A. Bahraminasab; S. Tabatabai; F. Fayazbakhsh

arXiv · physics/0510043

Dynamics of the Markov Time Scale of Seismic Activity May Provide a Short-Term Alert for Earthquakes

M. Reza Rahimi Tabar·Muhammad Sahimi·K. Kaviani·M. Allamehzadeh·J. Peinke·M. Mokhtari·M. Vesaghi·M. D. Niry·F. Ghasemi·A. Bahraminasab·S. Tabatabai·F. Fayazbakhsh

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Abstract

We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of several hours) before an earthquake the Markov time scale $t_M$ increases sharply, hence providing an alarm for an impending earthquake. To distinguish a false alarm from a reliable one, we compute a second quantity, $T_1$, based on the concept of extended self-similarity of the data. $T_1$ also changes strongly before an earthquake occurs. An alarm is accepted if {\it both} $t_M$ and $T_1$ indicate it {\it simultaneously}. Calibrating the method with the data for one region provides a tool for predicting an impending earthquake within that region. Our analysis of the data for a large number of earthquakes indicate an essentially zero rate of failure for the method.

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M. Reza Rahimi Tabar, Muhammad Sahimi, K. Kaviani, M. Allamehzadeh, J. Peinke, M. Mokhtari, M. Vesaghi, M. D. Niry, F. Ghasemi, A. Bahraminasab, S. Tabatabai, F. Fayazbakhsh. 2005-10-06. Dynamics of the Markov Time Scale of Seismic Activity May Provide a Short-Term Alert for Earthquakes. https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510043

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