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Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanes

Stephen Jewson·Jeremy Penzer·Christopher Casey
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Abstract

In previous work, we have shown how to combine long and short historical baselines to make predictions of future hurricane numbers. We now ask: how should such combinations change if we are interested in predicting the future number of intense hurricanes?

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Stephen Jewson, Jeremy Penzer, Christopher Casey. 2006-06-21. Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanes. https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0606192

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