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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious disease in Sweden

Martin Camitz·Fredrik Liljeros
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Abstract

Travel restrictions may reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health. In this study we investigate what effect different levels of travel restrictions may have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to SARS. We use a stochastic simulation model of the Swedish population, calibrated with survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over three years. We find that a ban on journeys longer than 50 km drastically reduces the speed and the geographical spread of outbreaks, even with when compliance is less than 100%. The result is found to be robust for different rates of inter-municipality transmission intensities. Travel restrictions may therefore be an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future outbreak.

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Martin Camitz, Fredrik Liljeros. 2005-10-05. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious disease in Sweden. https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0505044

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