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Aaron Kolb

Publications and source records attributed to Aaron Kolb.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Dynamic Disclosure with(out) Timestamps

We study how timestamps affect dynamic disclosure. At a random date, a sender privately obtains hard evidence about an evolving binary state and chooses when to disclose it. With timestamps, the unique equilibrium features immediate good-evidence disclosure and timestamp-dependent bad-evidence delay. Without timestamps, high priors relative to impatience generate a stock of undisclosed good evidence, which is stochastically purged before permanent transparency. High impatience yields immediate good-evidence disclosure, while bad evidence can be arbitrarily delayed and disclosed in bursts. Timestamps prevent pretending old good evidence is fresh and certify bad evidence is old, accelerating good-evidence disclosure and facilitating bad-evidence disclosure.

econ.TH

The Design and Price of Influence

A sender with private preferences would like to influence a receiver's action by providing information through a statistical test. The technology for information production is controlled by a monopolist intermediary, who offers a menu of tests and prices to screen the sender's type. We characterize the intermediary's optimal screening menu and the associated distortions, which may benefit the receiver by increasing test informativeness. Because of these distortions, seemingly unfavorable changes in the prior belief may actually benefit the sender. In extensions, we study (i) a stronger intermediary who can commit to a ``coercive'' test to punish non-participation and (ii) a weaker intermediary who cannot control test design but can charge for access.

econ.TH

Signaling with Private Monitoring

We study dynamic signaling when the informed party does not observe the signals generated by her actions. A long-run player signals her type continuously over time to a myopic second player who privately monitors her behavior; in turn, the myopic player transmits his private inferences back through an imperfect public signal of his actions. Preferences are linear-quadratic and the information structure is Gaussian. We construct linear Markov equilibria using belief states up to the long-run player's $\textit{second-order belief}$. Because of the private monitoring, this state is an explicit function of the long-run player's past play. A novel separation effect then emerges through this second-order belief channel, altering the traditional signaling that arises when beliefs are public. Applications to models of leadership, reputation, and trading are examined.

econ.TH