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Aaron Zimmerman

Publications and source records attributed to Aaron Zimmerman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Analytic Marginalization Over Calibration Uncertainties in Gravitational Wave Inference and Application to Black Hole Ringdown

The uncertain calibration of gravitational wave detectors is one source of systematic error in gravitational wave inference. While generally small, this uncertainty can be accounted for by modeling and marginalizing over calibration corrections. In this work we extend the standard frequency-domain approach to calibration marginalization to the time domain using basis splines, in such a way that the marginalization is analytic. We apply this method to the time-domain analysis of black hole ringdown, in particular the two highest signal-to-noise events detected so far, GW250114 and GW250207. For GW250114 we continue to find strong evidence for two ringdown modes, after marginalizing over the small calibration uncertainty at the time of the event. For GW250207, the calibration of the LIGO-Hanford detector was uncertain, and calibration marginalization is required for a coherent analysis using both LIGO detectors. We find that when calibration effects are included the remnant mass and spins inferred during ringdown agree with inferences from the full signal. Despite the high signal-to-noise of GW250207, we find no evidence for the presence of a second mode in the ringdown, and as a result deviations from relativity during ringdown are not well constrained.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Eccentricity as a Magnifying Glass: Precision Population Inference Enabled by Eccentric Neutron Star-Black Hole Mergers

The formation history of compact binary systems remains one of the key open questions in astrophysics. Theoretical studies generally favor isolated binary evolution for neutron star-black hole (NSBH) systems, which tends to produce nearly circular orbits. However, recent analyses of the gravitational-wave event GW200105 indicate that its source has measurable eccentricity, suggesting that alternative formation channels may also contribute. It has been shown that the intrinsic parameters of eccentric NSBH mergers, such as the component masses and spins, are much better measured than circular mergers with LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observatories. We explore how such eccentricity-enhanced parameter measurements can affect the inference of NSBH formation channels. We find that sharper measurements of the effective spin parameter $χ_{\rm eff}$ increase the fraction of systems for which negative values can be confidently identified, allowing for the clear measurement of a spin-orbit misaligned event every $\sim 2.5$ eccentric NSBH detections for an isotropically distributed population in the fifth LVK observing run (O5). Improved neutron star (NS) mass measurements provide better constraining power for NS mass distributions, potentially revealing structure and tightening the bounds that can be drawn on their upper and lower masses. Similarly, the recovery of a metallicity-dependent BH mass distribution is improved by eccentricity-enhanced measurements. Finally, we show that the proposed population-level eccentricity distribution for dynamical-formation channels can be tested by the end of O5.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Three subpopulations of binary black holes in mass, spin magnitudes and tilts following GWTC-5

The mass and spin distributions of merging binary black holes offer clues to their formation pathways, which remain uncertain. In this work, we model the population of binary black holes using generic subpopulations with distinct mass-ratio, spin-magnitude, and spin-tilt distributions, whose relative contributions vary with primary mass. Using the 259 binary black holes in the fifth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog (GWTC-5), we resolve three subpopulations with low, medium, and high spins. The low-spin population dominates for primary masses near $35 M_\odot$, contributes roughly half of the binaries for primary masses of $10 M_\odot$, and favors nearly equal mass ratios overall; its spins are consistent with both black holes having negligible spin, with a log Bayes factor of $\log_{10}B =6.1^{+0.2}_{-0.3}$ in favor of vanishing spins. The medium-spin population accounts for the other half of the population around primary masses of $10 M_\odot$ and favors spin magnitudes $χ_i \approx 0.2$ for both components, preferentially aligned orientations, and comparable mass ratios. The high-spin population dominates above primary masses of $60 M_\odot$ and also contributes at lower masses $\sim 20 M_\odot$; it favors a rapidly spinning primary ($χ_1 \approx 0.7$), a broad range of secondary spins, widely distributed spin orientations, and a broad mass-ratio distribution. Allowing for a fourth subpopulation yields no distinct additional mass-ratio or spin distribution, as it becomes degenerate with existing features. To resolve highly concentrated features in spin, we control the variance of standard Monte Carlo likelihood estimators using truncated Gaussian mixture models. Taken together, our results add to a growing body of evidence for substructure in the population of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA black holes, providing further clues to uncover their formation histories.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Toward a complete understanding of the properties of GW190521

Interpreting GW190521 remains challenging due to its exceptionally high total mass and correspondingly small number of observable gravitational-wave cycles, which gives rise to degeneracies between different physical interpretations. Motivated by the outstanding questions surrounding the event, we present a comprehensive reanalysis of GW190521 using waveform models drawn from multiple families, including a model that includes both eccentricity and spin-precession. We find evidence that the source was highly eccentric, with an inferred eccentricity of $0.81^{+0.05}_{-0.01}$ at 5 Hz, and show that non-eccentric interpretations arise from failing to probe the high-likelihood region at large eccentricities. We further demonstrate that when eccentricity is included in the analysis, there is no indication of spin precession, suggesting that the apparent precession in quasicircular analyses is at least partially driven by an eccentricity--spin-precession degeneracy. While all waveform models favor a comparable-mass binary, one model admits a secondary mode at more asymmetric masses. We find a robust probability $(\geq97\%)$ that the primary black hole lies within the pair-instability supernova mass gap ($\sim60-130\,M_\odot$), whereas the probability that the secondary lies in the gap depends on the waveform model. Through inference of GW190521-like injections, we show that the waveform systematics observed in the analysis of GW190521 could arise from the response of models to unmodeled eccentricity, rather than from intrinsic differences between waveform models. When analyzing a quasicircular spin-precessing injection similar to GW190521, we find no significant model dependence in the inferred parameters. Finally, because the inferred eccentricity lies beyond the calibration regime of current models, we test its robustness by recovering highly eccentric numerical-relativity waveforms.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Misinterpreting spin precession as orbital eccentricity in gravitational-wave signals

The increasing scope and breadth of gravitational wave detectors is providing the opportunity to explore new parameters in gravitational-wave astronomy. Eccentricity and spin-precession are two key observables to infer the origin of a gravitational wave (GW) source. The interpretation of GW source parameters can be plagued by degeneracy, such as the well-known degeneracy between mass and spin. As the field has explored new parameters, questions have been raised about possible degeneracies between eccentricity and spin-precession. Although some state-of-the-art models now include these effects individually, models that incorporate spin-precession and eccentricity are only in their infancy. Until models faithfully cover the complete parameter space of compact binary coalescence, our ability to correctly measure the source parameters and infer the formation of the binary is compromised. Here, we present a study of the distinguishability of these two key parameters in heavy binary black hole systems. We study merger-ringdown dominated systems with detector-frame total masses ranging between $200-300M_{\odot}$ and mass ratio ranging between $1-3$. Our work finds that there is indeed a degeneracy between eccentricity and spin-precession; however, it is a highly localized effect. We find that the misidentified eccentricity estimates get worse as the detector-frame total mass increases from $200M_{\odot}$ to $300M_{\odot}$, corresponding to progressively shorter signals in the detector band. Additionally, this misidentification is highly sensitive to the inclination angle of the source system. We provide quantifiable estimates of the potency of this degeneracy in addition to identifying some of the regions of parameter space where this degeneracy exists.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Impact of eccentricity and higher-modes on neutron star-black hole parameter estimation

Detections of gravitational waves from neutron star-black hole systems provide avenues for studying extreme matter, constraining binary formation channels, and testing the nature of compact objects in strong gravity. Eccentric signatures in the signal further enhance this potential by improving parameter estimation and offering clues about binary formation. Because eccentricity is primarily imprinted during the inspiral phase, it is often weakly constrained or missed entirely in binary black hole observations; in contrast, neutron star-black hole systems produce longer in-band signals, enabling more precise measurements of eccentricity and leaving a distinct imprint on parameter inference. In this work, we present a systematic parameter-estimation study exploring the impact of eccentricity on inference using injections simulated with the state-of-the-art eccentric waveform model SEOBNRv5EHM. We find that for systems like GW200105_162426, the measurement precision of eccentricity and correlated parameters improves as eccentricity increases, yielding tighter constraints at larger eccentricities. For the highest eccentricity considered in this study, $e=0.25$, we recover eccentricity with $1σ$ uncertainty as low as $4\times10^{-4}$. In addition, the constraints on effective spin $χ_\mathrm{eff}$ and mass ratio $q$ improve relative to the quasi-circular case by factors of $\sim13$ and $\sim20$, respectively. On the other hand, we find no significant improvement in extrinsic parameters such as luminosity distance and sky localization, suggesting that for systems like GW200105_162426, the additional information provided by eccentricity in this sector is either negligible or degenerate with the information provided by higher-order modes.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Inference with finite time series II: the window strikes back

Smooth window functions are often applied to strain data when inferring the parameters describing the astrophysical sources of gravitational-wave transients. Within the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration, it is conventional to include a term to account for power loss due to this window in the likelihood function. We show that the inclusion of this factor leads to biased inference. The simplest solution to this, omitting the factor, leads to unbiased posteriors and Bayes factor estimates provided the window does not suppress the signal for signal-to-noise ratios $\lesssim O(100)$, but unreliable estimates of the absolute likelihood. Instead, we propose a multi-stage method that yields consistent estimates for the absolute likelihood in addition to unbiased posterior distributions and Bayes factors for signal-to-noise ratios $\lesssim O(1000)$. Additionally, we demonstrate that the commonly held wisdom that using rectangular windows necessarily leads to biased inference is incorrect.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Computing spectral shifts for Johannsen-Psaltis black holes

The growing number of gravitational wave (GW) detections and the increasing sensitivity of GW detectors have enabled precision tests of General Relativity (GR) in the strong-field regime. The recent observation of multiple quasinormal modes (QNMs) in GW250114 marks a major advance for observational black hole spectroscopy. This clear signal, together with the growing number of GW detections, highlights the need for accurate predictions of QNM spectra in beyond-GR theories in order to carry out precision searches for new physics. In this work, we continue to lay the foundation for such predictions using a modified Teukolsky formalism in conjunction with the eigenvalue perturbation method. We compute the spectral shifts of slowly rotating Johannsen-Psaltis black holes for $2 \leq \ell \leq 10$, all $m$, and overtones $n = 0, 1, 2$, and confirm the large-$\ell$ behavior of the modes by comparing with the WKB approximation. We find that these black holes admit definite-parity modes but break the isospectrality between even- and odd-parity QNMs at all spins, and that the shifts depend linearly on $m$ for slow spins. We further derive a general parity condition that any beyond-GR modification to the metric must satisfy to support definite-parity modes, providing new insights into isospectrality breaking and parity structure in gravitational perturbations.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Evidence for mass-dependent spin subpopulations in GWTC-4

While the origin of merging black-hole binaries observed in gravitational waves remain uncertain, different formation channels are expected to leave distinct imprints on their observed mass and spin distributions. In this work, we focus on the mass dependence of the spin magnitudes $(χ_1,χ_2)$, allowing for multiple spin subpopulations whose relative fraction varies with mass. Using the binaries from the fourth LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA gravitational wave transient catalog (GWTC-4), we find strong evidence for two subpopulations, with a log Bayes factor of $\log_{10} \mathcal B = 4^{+6}_{-2}$. The data support a picture in which low-mass systems are composed almost entirely of slowly spinning black holes ($χ\lesssim 0.2$), while high-mass systems are dominated by a broader component with moderate to rapid spins, peaking at $(χ_1,χ_2)\approx(0.7,0.7)$ and retaining a non-negligible tail toward asymmetric spins $(χ_1,χ_2)\approx(0.7,0)$. The transition between these regimes spans a broad range from $m_1 \approx 35^{+20}_{-20} \,M_\odot$ to $m_1 \approx 70^{+90}_{-25}\,M_\odot$. For the low-mass, slowly-spinning regime, a flexible model of spin orientations does not allow us to exclude identically vanishing spins, $χ_1 = χ_2 = 0$. Meanwhile, the high-mass, rapidly-spinning population does not neatly display the spin-magnitude asymmetry expected from hierarchical mergers, although the data do not exclude that. This kind of localized structure is generally difficult to access with standard Monte-Carlo likelihood estimators, which we replace with a regularized representation in terms of truncated Gaussian mixtures. Taken together, our results provide a new target for formation models, which should reproduce not only the mass and effective spin distributions, but also the mass-dependent structure of the individual component-spin magnitudes.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Living on the edge: Testing for compact population features at the edges of parameter space

Many astrophysical population studies involve parameters that exist on a bounded domain, such as the dimensionless spins of black holes or the eccentricities of planetary orbits, both of which are confined to $[0, 1]$. In such scenarios, we often wish to test for distributions clustered near a boundary, e.g., vanishing spin or orbital eccentricity. Conventional approaches -- whether based on Monte Carlo, kernel density estimators, or machine-learning techniques -- often suffer biases at the boundaries. These biases stem from sparse sampling near the edge, kernel-related smoothing, or artifacts introduced by domain transformations. We introduce a truncated Gaussian mixture model framework that substantially mitigates these issues, enabling accurate inference of narrow, edge-dominated population features. While our method has broad applications to many astronomical domains, we consider gravitational wave catalogs as a concrete example to demonstrate its power. In particular, we maintain agreement with published constraints on the fraction of zero-spin binary black hole systems in the GWTC-3 catalog -- results originally derived at much higher computational cost through dedicated reanalysis of individual events in the catalog. Our method can achieve similarly reliable results with a much lower computational cost. The method is publicly available in the open-source packages gravpop and truncatedgaussianmixtures.

astro-ph.IM↗
arXiv2025

New framework for classical double copies

The double copy relates gauge and gravitational theories, with widespread application to quantum scattering amplitudes and classical perturbative results. It also connects exact classical solutions of Abelian gauge and gravitational theories in a small number of specific examples, known as classical double copies. These have a number of special properties, such as being algebraically special, and it remains an open question whether examples exist for algebraically general spacetimes or with nontrivial dynamics. Here we provide a novel framework for understanding classical double copies at the level of the metric, both organizing the known examples and exploring their properties under a new lens. Utilizing Killing vectors as natural gauge fields on a spacetime, we propose a procedure for generating new classical double copies. As a proof of concept, we provide a flat-space single copy for the Kasner metric, an algebraically general spacetime. This example is also a double copy at the level of its curvature, and provides the first type-$I$ Weyl double copy on flat spacetime, confirming expectations from perturbation theory. This provides a promising avenue for extending exact double copies to a broader class of general, physically relevant spacetimes.

hep-th↗
arXiv2025

Efficient Bayesian Sampling with Langevin Birth-Death Dynamics

Bayesian inference plays a central role in scientific and engineering applications by enabling principled reasoning under uncertainty. However, sampling from generic probability distributions remains a computationally demanding task. This difficulty is compounded when the distributions are ill-conditioned, multi-modal, or supported on topologically non-Euclidean spaces. Motivated by challenges in gravitational wave parameter estimation, we propose simulating a Langevin diffusion augmented with a birth-death process. The dynamics are rescaled with a simple preconditioner, and generalized to apply to the product spaces of a hypercube and hypertorus. Our method is first-order and embarrassingly parallel with respect to model evaluations, making it well-suited for algorithmic differentiation and modern hardware accelerators. We validate the algorithm on a suite of toy problems and successfully apply it to recover the parameters of GW150914 -- the first observed binary black hole merger. This approach addresses key limitations of traditional sampling methods, and introduces a template that can be used to design robust samplers in the future.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2024

Hints of spin-magnitude correlations and a rapidly spinning subpopulation of binary black holes

The complex astrophysical processes leading to the formation of binary black holes and their eventual merger are imprinted on the spins of the individual black holes. We revisit the astrophysical distribution of those spins based on gravitational waves from the third gravitational wave transient catalog GWTC-3, (Abbott et al. 2023a), looking for structure in the two-dimensional space defined by the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the heavier ($χ_1$) and lighter ($χ_2$) component black holes. We find support for two distinct subpopulations with greater than $95\%$ credibility. The dominant population is made up of black holes with small spins, preferring $χ_1 \approx 0.2$ for the primary and $χ_2 \approx 0$ for the secondary; we report signs of an anticorrelation between $χ_1$ and $χ_2$, as well as as evidence against a subpopulation of binaries in which both components are nonspinning. The subdominant population consists of systems in which both black holes have relatively high spins and contains $20^{+18}_{-18}\%$ of the binaries. The binaries that are most likely to belong in this subpopulation are massive and slightly more likely to have spin-orientations aligned with the orbital angular momentum--potentially consistent with isolated binary formation channels capable of producing large spins, like chemically homogeneous evolution. This hint of a rapidly spinning subpopulation hinges on GW190517, a binary with large and well-measured spins. Our results, which are enabled by novel hierarchical inference methods, represent a first step towards more descriptive population models for black hole spins, and will be strengthened or refuted by the large number of gravitational wave detections expected in the next several years.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2024

Accuracy limitations of existing numerical relativity waveforms on the data analysis of current and future ground-based detectors

As gravitational wave detectors improve in sensitivity, signal-to-noise ratios of compact binary coalescences will dramatically increase, reaching values in the hundreds and potentially thousands. Such strong signals offer both exciting scientific opportunities and pose formidable challenges to the template waveforms used for interpretation. Current waveform models are informed by calibrating or fitting to numerical relativity waveforms and such strong signals may unveil computational errors in generating these waveforms. In this paper, we isolate a single source of computational error, that of the finite grid resolution, and investigate its impact on parameter estimation for aLIGO and Cosmic Explorer. We demonstrate that increasing the inclination angle or decreasing the mass ratio $q$ ($q \leq 1 $) raises the resolution required for unbiased parameter estimation. We quantify the error associated with the highest-resolution waveform utilized in our study using an extrapolation procedure on the median of recovered posteriors and confirm the accuracy of current waveforms for the synthetic sources. We introduce a measure to predict the necessary numerical resolution for unbiased parameter estimation and use it to predict that current waveforms are suitable for equal and moderately unequal mass binaries for both detectors. However, current waveforms fail to meet accuracy requirements for high signal-to-noise ratio signals from highly unequal mass ratio binaries $(q \lesssim 1/6)$, for all inclinations in Cosmic Explorer, and for high inclinations in future updates to LIGO. Given that the resolution requirement becomes more stringent with more unequal mass ratios, current waveforms may lack the necessary accuracy, even at median signal-to-noise ratios for future detectors.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2024

Tempered Multifidelity Importance Sampling for Gravitational Wave Parameter Estimation

Estimating the parameters of compact binaries which coalesce and produce gravitational waves is a challenging Bayesian inverse problem. Gravitational-wave parameter estimation lies within the class of multifidelity problems, where a variety of models with differing assumptions, levels of fidelity, and computational cost are available for use in inference. In an effort to accelerate the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, cheaper surrogates for the best models may be used to reduce the cost of likelihood evaluations when sampling the posterior. Importance sampling can then be used to reweight these samples to represent the true target posterior, incurring a reduction in the effective sample size. In cases when the problem is high dimensional, or when the surrogate model produces a poor approximation of the true posterior, this reduction in effective samples can be dramatic and render multifidelity importance sampling ineffective. We propose a novel method of tempered multifidelity importance sampling in order to remedy this issue. With this method the biasing distribution produced by the low-fidelity model is tempered, allowing for potentially better overlap with the target distribution. There is an optimal temperature which maximizes the efficiency in this setting, and we propose a low-cost strategy for approximating this optimal temperature using samples from the untempered distribution. In this paper, we motivate this method by applying it to Gaussian target and biasing distributions. Finally, we apply it to a series of problems in gravitational wave parameter estimation and demonstrate improved efficiencies when applying the method to real gravitational wave detections.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

Accelerated parameter estimation in Bilby with relative binning

We describe an implementation of the relative binning technique to speed up parameter estimation of gravitational-wave signals. We first give a pedagogical overview of relative binning, discussing also the expressions for the likelihood marginalized over phase and distance. Then, we describe the details of the code in \texttt{Bilby}, an open-source software package commonly used for parameter estimation of gravitational-wave sources. Our code is able to reproduce the parameters of GW170817 in 14 hours on a single-core CPU, performs well on simulated signals, and passes the percentile-percentile (p-p) tests. We also illustrate that relative binning is an ideal technique to estimate the parameters of signals in next-generation gravitational wave detectors.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

Isospectrality breaking in the Teukolsky formalism

General relativity, though the most successful theory of gravity, has been continuously modified to resolve its incompatibility with quantum mechanics and explain the origin of dark energy or dark matter. One way to test these modified gravity theories is to study the gravitational waves emitted during the ringdown of binary mergers, which consist of quasinormal modes. In several modified gravity theories, the even- and odd-parity gravitational perturbations of non-rotating and slowly rotating black holes have different quasinormal mode frequencies, breaking the isospectrality of general relativity. For black holes with arbitrary spin in modified gravity, there were no avenues to compute quasinormal modes except numerical relativity, until recent extensions of the Teukolsky formalism. In this work, we describe how to use the modified Teukolsky formalism to study isospectrality breaking in modified gravity. We first introduce how definite-parity modes are defined through combinations of Weyl scalars in general relativity, and then, we extend this definition to modified gravity. We then use the eigenvalue perturbation method to show how the degeneracy in quasinormal mode frequencies of different parity is broken in modified gravity. To demonstrate our analysis, we also apply it to some specific modified gravity theories. Our work lays the foundation for studying isospectrality breaking of quasinormal modes in modified gravity for black holes with arbitrary spin.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

Rapid localization and inference on compact binary coalescences with the Advanced LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational-wave detector network

We present a rapid parameter estimation framework for compact binary coalescence (CBC) signals observed by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) detector network. The goal of our framework is to enable optimal source localization of binary neutron star (BNS) signals in low latency, as well as improve the overall scalability of full CBC parameter estimation analyses. Our framework is based on the reduced order quadrature (ROQ) technique, and resolves its shortcomings by utilizing multiple ROQ bases in a single parameter estimation run. We have also developed sets of compact ROQ bases for various waveform models, IMRPhenomD, IMRPhenomPv2, IMRPhenomPv2$\_$NRTidalv2, and IMRPhenomXPHM. We benchmark our framework with hundreds of simulated observations of BNS signals by the LIGO-Virgo detector network, and demonstrate that it provides accurate and unbiased estimates on BNS source location, with a median analysis time of $6$ minutes. The median searched area is reduced by around 30$\%$ compared to estimates produced by BAYESTAR: from $21.8\,\mathrm{deg^2}$ to $16.6\,\mathrm{deg^2}$. Our framework also enables detailed parameter estimation taking into account gravitational-wave higher multipole moments, the tidal deformation of colliding objects, and detector calibration errors of amplitude and phase with the time scale of hours. Our rapid parameter estimation technique has been implemented in one of the LVK parameter estimation engines, BILBY, and is being employed by the automated parameter estimation analysis of the LVK alert system.

gr-qc↗