arXiv subjects

Adam B. Barrett

Publications and source records attributed to Adam B. Barrett.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Integrated information theory: the good, the bad and the misunderstood

The integrated information theory of consciousness (IIT) is uniquely ambitious in proposing a mathematical formula, derived from apparently fundamental properties of conscious experience, to describe the quantity and quality of consciousness for any physical system that possesses it. IIT has generated considerable debate, which has engendered some misunderstandings and misrepresentations. Here we address and hope to remedy this. We begin by concisely summarising the essentials of IIT. Given IIT is supposed to apply universally, we do this with reference to an arbitrary patch of matter, as opposed to the usual system of discrete computational units. Then, after briefly summarising IIT's theoretical and empirical achievements, we focus on five points which we consider especially important for driving forward new theory and increasing understanding. First, a high value of the measure $\Phi$ is not synonymous with `more consciousness'. We describe how $\Phi$ might be replaced with a suite of quantities to obtain a multi-dimensional characterisation of states of consciousness. Second, we describe with nuance the distinct flavour of panpsychism implied by IIT -- whereby space (and time) are tiled with substrates of (proto-) consciousness -- and find this is not problematic for the theory. Third, $\Phi$ is not well-defined for real physical systems, and has not been computed on any real physical system. Fourth, so far only proxies for IIT measures have been computed, and not approximations. Fifth, for IIT to fit with current successful theories in fundamental physics, a reformulation in terms of continuous fields would be needed.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2025

Mapping of Subjective Accounts into Interpreted Clusters (MOSAIC): Topic Modelling and LLM applied to Stroboscopic Phenomenology

Stroboscopic light stimulation (SLS) on closed eyes typically induces simple visual hallucinations (VHs), characterised by vivid, geometric and colourful patterns. A dataset of 862 sentences, extracted from 422 open subjective reports, was recently compiled as part of the Dreamachine programme (Collective Act, 2022), an immersive multisensory experience that combines SLS and spatial sound in a collective setting. Although open reports extend the range of reportable phenomenology, their analysis presents significant challenges, particularly in systematically identifying patterns. To address this challenge, we implemented a data-driven approach leveraging Large Language Models and Topic Modelling to uncover and interpret latent experiential topics directly from the Dreamachine's text-based reports. Our analysis confirmed the presence of simple VHs typically documented in scientific studies of SLS, while also revealing experiences of altered states of consciousness and complex hallucinations. Building on these findings, our computational approach expands the systematic study of subjective experience by enabling data-driven analyses of open-ended phenomenological reports, capturing experiences not readily identified through standard questionnaires. By revealing rich and multifaceted aspects of experiences, our study broadens our understanding of stroboscopically-induced phenomena while highlighting the potential of Natural Language Processing and Large Language Models in the emerging field of computational (neuro)phenomenology. More generally, this approach provides a practically applicable methodology for uncovering subtle hidden patterns of subjective experience across diverse research domains.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Implications of zero-growth economics analysed with an agent-based model

The breaching of planetary boundaries and the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change are leading researchers to question the endless pursuit of economic growth. Several macroeconomic modelling studies have now examined whether a zero-growth trajectory in a capitalist system with interest-bearing debt can be economically stable, with mixed results. However, stability has not previously been explored at the microeconomic level, where it is important to know the consequences of zero-growth on e.g., distribution of firm sizes, market instability and risk of individual firm bankruptcy. Here we address this by developing an agent-based model incorporating Minskyan financial dynamics, the Post-Growth DYNamic Agent-based MINskyan (PG-DYNAMIN) model, and carrying out simultaneous macro- and microeconomic analyses. Accounting for the fact that growing capitalist economies are unstable and produce crises, we compare the relative stability of growth and zero-growth scenarios. This is achieved by tweaking an exogenous productivity parameter. We find zero-growth scenarios are viable yet exhibit distinct dynamics from growth scenarios. Under zero-growth, GDP was less volatile, there was reduced systemic risk in the credit network, lower unemployment rates, a higher wages share of GDP for workers, lower corporate debt to GDP ratio, and a reduction in market instability. Additionally, there was a higher rate of inflation, lower profit share of GDP for firms, increased market concentration, more economic crises with higher severity, and increased default probabilities for firms during periods of crises.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Greater than the parts: A review of the information decomposition approach to causal emergence

Emergence is a profound subject that straddles many scientific disciplines, including the formation of galaxies and how consciousness arises from the collective activity of neurons. Despite the broad interest that exists on this concept, the study of emergence has suffered from a lack of formalisms that could be used to guide discussions and advance theories. Here we summarise, elaborate on, and extend a recent formal theory of causal emergence based on information decomposition, which is quantifiable and amenable to empirical testing. This theory relates emergence with information about a system's temporal evolution that cannot be obtained from the parts of the system separately. This article provides an accessible but rigorous introduction to the framework, discussing the merits of the approach in various scenarios of interest. We also discuss several interpretation issues and potential misunderstandings, while highlighting the distinctive benefits of this formalism.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2021

Towards an extended taxonomy of information dynamics via Integrated Information Decomposition

Complex systems, from the human brain to the global economy, are made of multiple elements that interact in such ways that the behaviour of the `whole' often seems to be more than what is readily explainable in terms of the `sum of the parts.' Our ability to understand and control these systems remains limited, one reason being that we still don't know how best to describe -- and quantify -- the higher-order dynamical interactions that characterise their complexity. To address this limitation, we combine principles from the theories of Information Decomposition and Integrated Information into what we call Integrated Information Decomposition, or $\Phi$ID. $\Phi$ID provides a comprehensive framework to reason about, evaluate, and understand the information dynamics of complex multivariate systems. $\Phi$ID reveals the existence of previously unreported modes of collective information flow, providing tools to express well-known measures of information transfer and dynamical complexity as aggregates of these modes. Via computational and empirical examples, we demonstrate that $\Phi$ID extends our explanatory power beyond traditional causal discovery methods -- with profound implications for the study of complex systems across disciplines.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2021

Integrated information as a common signature of dynamical and information-processing complexity

The apparent dichotomy between information-processing and dynamical approaches to complexity science forces researchers to choose between two diverging sets of tools and explanations, creating conflict and often hindering scientific progress. Nonetheless, given the shared theoretical goals between both approaches, it is reasonable to conjecture the existence of underlying common signatures that capture interesting behaviour in both dynamical and information-processing systems. Here we argue that a pragmatic use of Integrated Information Theory (IIT), originally conceived in theoretical neuroscience, can provide a potential unifying framework to study complexity in general multivariate systems. Furthermore, by leveraging metrics put forward by the integrated information decomposition ($\Phi$ID) framework, our results reveal that integrated information can effectively capture surprisingly heterogeneous signatures of complexity -- including metastability and criticality in networks of coupled oscillators as well as distributed computation and emergent stable particles in cellular automata -- without relying on idiosyncratic, ad-hoc criteria. These results show how an agnostic use of IIT can provide important steps towards bridging the gap between informational and dynamical approaches to complex systems.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2020

Decomposing spectral and phasic differences in non-linear features between datasets

When employing non-linear methods to characterise complex systems, it is important to determine to what extent they are capturing genuine non-linear phenomena that could not be assessed by simpler spectral methods. Specifically, we are concerned with the problem of quantifying spectral and phasic effects on an observed difference in a non-linear feature between two systems (or two states of the same system). Here we derive, from a sequence of null models, a decomposition of the difference in an observable into spectral, phasic, and spectrum-phase interaction components. Our approach makes no assumptions about the structure of the data and adds nuance to a wide range of time series analyses.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Reconciling emergences: An information-theoretic approach to identify causal emergence in multivariate data

The broad concept of emergence is instrumental in various of the most challenging open scientific questions -- yet, few quantitative theories of what constitutes emergent phenomena have been proposed. This article introduces a formal theory of causal emergence in multivariate systems, which studies the relationship between the dynamics of parts of a system and macroscopic features of interest. Our theory provides a quantitative definition of downward causation, and introduces a complementary modality of emergent behaviour -- which we refer to as causal decoupling. Moreover, the theory allows practical criteria that can be efficiently calculated in large systems, making our framework applicable in a range of scenarios of practical interest. We illustrate our findings in a number of case studies, including Conway's Game of Life, Reynolds' flocking model, and neural activity as measured by electrocorticography.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2020

An empirical, Bayesian approach to modelling the impact of weather on crop yield: maize in the US

We apply an empirical, data-driven approach for describing crop yield as a function of monthly temperature and precipitation by employing generative probabilistic models with parameters determined through Bayesian inference. Our approach is applied to state-scale maize yield and meteorological data for the US Corn Belt from 1981 to 2014 as an exemplar, but would be readily transferable to other crops, locations and spatial scales. Experimentation with a number of models shows that maize growth rates can be characterised by a two-dimensional Gaussian function of temperature and precipitation with monthly contributions accumulated over the growing period. This approach accounts for non-linear growth responses to the individual meteorological variables, and allows for interactions between them. Our models correctly identify that temperature and precipitation have the largest impact on yield in the six months prior to the harvest, in agreement with the typical growing season for US maize (April to September). Maximal growth rates occur for monthly mean temperature 18-19$^\circ$C, corresponding to a daily maximum temperature of 24-25$^\circ$C (in broad agreement with previous work) and monthly total precipitation 115 mm. Our approach also provides a self-consistent way of investigating climate change impacts on current US maize varieties in the absence of adaptation measures. Keeping precipitation and growing area fixed, a temperature increase of $2^\circ$C, relative to 1981-2014, results in the mean yield decreasing by 8\%, while the yield variance increases by a factor of around 3. We thus provide a flexible, data-driven framework for exploring the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change on globally significant crops based on their observed behaviour. In concert with other approaches, this can help inform the development of adaptation strategies that will ensure food security under a changing climate.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Forecasting vegetation condition for drought early warning systems in pastoral communities in Kenya

Droughts are a recurring hazard in sub-Saharan Africa, that can wreak huge socioeconomic costs.Acting early based on alerts provided by early warning systems (EWS) can potentially provide substantial mitigation, reducing the financial and human cost. However, existing EWS tend only to monitor current, rather than forecast future, environmental and socioeconomic indicators of drought, and hence are not always sufficiently timely to be effective in practice. Here we present a novel method for forecasting satellite-based indicators of vegetation condition. Specifically, we focused on the 3-month Vegetation Condition Index (VCI3M) over pastoral livelihood zones in Kenya, which is the indicator used by the Kenyan National Drought Management Authority(NDMA). Using data from MODIS and Landsat, we apply linear autoregression and Gaussian process modeling methods and demonstrate high forecasting skill several weeks ahead. As a benchmark we predicted the drought alert marker used by NDMA (VCI3M<35). Both of our models were able to predict this alert marker four weeks ahead with a hit rate of around 89% and a false alarm rate of around 4%, or 81% and 6% respectively six weeks ahead. The methods developed here can thus identify a deteriorating vegetation condition well and sufficiently in advance to help disaster risk managers act early to support vulnerable communities and limit the impact of a drought hazard.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Beyond integrated information: A taxonomy of information dynamics phenomena

Most information dynamics and statistical causal analysis frameworks rely on the common intuition that causal interactions are intrinsically pairwise -- every 'cause' variable has an associated 'effect' variable, so that a 'causal arrow' can be drawn between them. However, analyses that depict interdependencies as directed graphs fail to discriminate the rich variety of modes of information flow that can coexist within a system. This, in turn, creates problems with attempts to operationalise the concepts of 'dynamical complexity' or `integrated information.' To address this shortcoming, we combine concepts of partial information decomposition and integrated information, and obtain what we call Integrated Information Decomposition, or $\Phi$ID. We show how $\Phi$ID paves the way for more detailed analyses of interdependencies in multivariate time series, and sheds light on collective modes of information dynamics that have not been reported before. Additionally, $\Phi$ID reveals that what is typically referred to as 'integration' is actually an aggregate of several heterogeneous phenomena. Furthermore, $\Phi$ID can be used to formulate new, tailored measures of integrated information, as well as to understand and alleviate the limitations of existing measures.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2019

The Phi measure of integrated information is not well-defined for general physical systems

According to the Integrated Information Theory of Consciousness, consciousness is a fundamental observer-independent property of physical systems, and the measure Phi of integrated information is identical to the quantity or level of consciousness. For this to be plausible, there should be no alternative formulae for Phi consistent with the axioms of IIT, and there should not be cases of Phi being ill-defined. This article presents three ways in which Phi, in its current formulation, fails to meet these standards, and discusses how this problem might be addressed.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2018

Measuring Integrated Information: Comparison of Candidate Measures in Theory and Simulation

Integrated Information Theory (IIT) is a prominent theory of consciousness that has at its centre measures that quantify the extent to which a system generates more information than the sum of its parts. While several candidate measures of integrated information (`$\Phi$') now exist, little is known about how they compare, especially in terms of their behaviour on non-trivial network models. In this article we provide clear and intuitive descriptions of six distinct candidate measures. We then explore the properties of each of these measures in simulation on networks consisting of eight interacting nodes, animated with Gaussian linear autoregressive dynamics. We find a striking diversity in the behaviour of these measures -- no two measures show consistent agreement across all analyses. Further, only a subset of the measures appear to genuinely reflect some form of dynamical complexity, in the sense of simultaneous segregation and integration between system components. Our results help guide the operationalisation of IIT and advance the development of measures of integrated information that may have more general applicability.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2017

Solved problems and remaining challenges for Granger causality analysis in neuroscience: A response to Stokes and Purdon (2017)

Granger-Geweke causality (GGC) is a powerful and popular method for identifying directed functional (`causal') connectivity in neuroscience. In a recent paper, Stokes and Purdon [1] raise several concerns about its use. They make two primary claims: (1) that GGC estimates may be severely biased or of high variance, and (2) that GGC fails to reveal the full structural/causal mechanisms of a system. However, these claims rest, respectively, on an incomplete evaluation of the literature, and a misconception about what GGC can be said to measure. Here we explain how existing approaches (as implemented, for example, in our popular MVGC software [2,3]) resolve the first issue, and discuss the frequently-misunderstood distinction between functional and effective neural connectivity which underlies Stokes and Purdon's second claim. [1] Patrick A. Stokes and Patrick. L. Purdon (2017), A study of problems encountered in Granger causality analysis from a neuroscience perspective, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 114(34):7063-7072. [2] Lionel Barnett and Anil K. Seth (2012), The MVGC Multivariate Granger Causality Matlab toolbox, http://users.sussex.ac.uk/~lionelb/MVGC/ [3] Lionel Barnett and Anil K. Seth (2014), The MVGC multivariate Granger causality toolbox: A new approach to Granger-causal inference, J. Neurosci. Methods 223:50-68

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Stability of zero-growth economics analysed with a Minskyan model

As humanity is becoming increasingly confronted by Earth's finite biophysical limits, there is increasing interest in questions about the stability and equitability of a zero-growth capitalist economy, most notably: if one maintains a positive interest rate for loans, can a zero-growth economy be stable? This question has been explored on a few different macroeconomic models, and both `yes' and `no' answers have been obtained. However, economies can become unstable whether or not there is ongoing underlying growth in productivity with which to sustain growth in output. Here we attempt, for the first time, to assess via a model the relative stability of growth versus no-growth scenarios. The model employed draws from Keen's model of the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. The analysis focuses on dynamics as opposed to equilibrium, and scenarios of growth and no-growth of output (GDP) are obtained by tweaking a productivity growth input parameter. We confirm that, with or without growth, there can be both stable and unstable scenarios. To maintain stability, firms must not change their debt levels or target debt levels too quickly. Further, according to the model, the wages share is higher for zero-growth scenarios, although there are more frequent substantial drops in employment.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2014

Exploration of synergistic and redundant information sharing in static and dynamical Gaussian systems

To fully characterize the information that two `source' variables carry about a third `target' variable, one must decompose the total information into redundant, unique and synergistic components, i.e. obtain a partial information decomposition (PID). However Shannon's theory of information does not provide formulae to fully determine these quantities. Several recent studies have begun addressing this. Some possible definitions for PID quantities have been proposed, and some analyses have been carried out on systems composed of discrete variables. Here we present the first in-depth analysis of PIDs on Gaussian systems, both static and dynamical. We show that, for a broad class of Gaussian systems, previously proposed PID formulae imply that: (i) redundancy reduces to the minimum information provided by either source variable, and hence is independent of correlation between sources; (ii) synergy is the extra information contributed by the weaker source when the stronger source is known, and can either increase or decrease with correlation between sources. We find that Gaussian systems frequently exhibit net synergy, i.e. the information carried jointly by both sources is greater than the sum of informations carried by each source individually. Drawing from several explicit examples, we discuss the implications of these findings for measures of information transfer and information-based measures of complexity, both generally and within a neuroscience setting. Importantly, by providing independent formulae for synergy and redundancy applicable to continuous time-series data, we open up a new approach to characterizing and quantifying information sharing amongst complex system variables.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2014

An Integration of Integrated Information Theory with Fundamental Physics

To truly eliminate Cartesian ghosts from the science of consciousness, we must describe consciousness as an aspect of the physical. Integrated Information Theory states that consciousness arises from intrinsic information generated by dynamical systems; however existing formulations of this theory are not applicable to standard models of fundamental physical entities. Modern physics has shown that fields are fundamental entities, and in particular that the electromagnetic field is fundamental. Here I hypothesize that consciousness arises from information intrinsic to fundamental fields. This hypothesis unites fundamental physics with what we know empirically about the neuroscience underlying consciousness, and it bypasses the need to consider quantum effects.

q-bio.OT↗

arXiv2010

Multivariate Granger Causality and Generalized Variance

Granger causality analysis is a popular method for inference on directed interactions in complex systems of many variables. A shortcoming of the standard framework for Granger causality is that it only allows for examination of interactions between single (univariate) variables within a system, perhaps conditioned on other variables. However, interactions do not necessarily take place between single variables, but may occur among groups, or "ensembles", of variables. In this study we establish a principled framework for Granger causality in the context of causal interactions among two or more multivariate sets of variables. Building on Geweke's seminal 1982 work, we offer new justifications for one particular form of multivariate Granger causality based on the generalized variances of residual errors. Taken together, our results support a comprehensive and theoretically consistent extension of Granger causality to the multivariate case. Treated individually, they highlight several specific advantages of the generalized variance measure, which we illustrate using applications in neuroscience as an example. We further show how the measure can be used to define "partial" Granger causality in the multivariate context and we also motivate reformulations of "causal density" and "Granger autonomy". Our results are directly applicable to experimental data and promise to reveal new types of functional relations in complex systems, neural and otherwise.

q-bio.NC↗