arXiv subjects

Adam O'Shay

Publications and source records attributed to Adam O'Shay.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2007

Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions

One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2007

Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature

We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally predicting the number of US landfalling hurricanes based on the prediction of the number of basin hurricanes. We have described a number of SST prediction methods in previous work. We now investigate the empirical relationship between SST and basin hurricane numbers, and put this together with the SST predictions to make predictions of both basin and landfalling hurricane numbers.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2007

Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods

We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall goal, in this study we compare the historical performance of three simple statistical methods for making five-year SST forecasts. We also present SST forecasts for 2006-2010 using these methods and compare them to forecasts made from two structural time series models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2006

Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900

In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then. We now make this model a little more subtle, and account for the possibility of four different levels of mean hurricane activity since 1900.

physics.ao-ph↗