Search arXiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Adam Riess

Publications and source records attributed to Adam Riess.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Old Universe, Young SNe Ia: A Statistical Analysis of Type Ia Supernova Progenitor Age from 6,983 TITAN Host Galaxies, and Implications for Cosmology

Correlations between standardized Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) luminosities and host-galaxy properties are routinely modeled to avoid bias in cosmological parameter inference. A recent hypothesis attributes these correlations to progenitor-age variations and, combined with a strong ($\sim$5-6 Gyr) age evolution between low- and high-redshift samples, could alter cosmological conclusions. We test this scenario using the SN Ia host galaxies of TITAN DR1, the largest low-redshift sample of its kind to date (6,983 hosts; 0 $\lesssim$ z $\lesssim$ 0.15). Progenitor ages are estimated by combining host-galaxy star-formation histories (SFHs) with empirical delay-time distributions. The SFHs are constrained via spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting of photometry spanning ultraviolet (UV) to mid-infrared (MIR) wavelengths, enabling robust separation of dusty star-forming and quiescent systems. The resulting progenitor-age distribution has a mean of 3.5 Gyr, substantially younger than predicted by strong-evolution models. It is strongly peaked near 2.2 Gyr, predominantly from star-forming hosts (60% of the sample), with a smaller, broader component centered near 6.0 Gyr from quiescent systems. Restricting to high-mass galaxies (in order to isolate progenitor effects from the mass-step), the age difference between host types reduces to 3.3 Gyr which, under the age-dependence hypothesis, would imply a 0.10 mag luminosity offset, inconsistent with observed standardized magnitudes. We infer a modest 1.5 Gyr evolution in mean progenitor age over cosmic time which, combined with observed age-Hubble-residual (HR) relations, yields a maximum redshift-dependent bias of $\Delta$HR = $-0.007^{+0.012}_{-0.014}$ mag, consistent with zero. We find no evidence for a large, unmodeled progenitor-age systematic beyond what is already captured, to good approximation, by standard host-mass corrections.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

Forward-modelling Milky Way Cepheids: selection effects and physical priors in the Gaia-HST calibration

The advent of high-precision Gaia parallaxes for Milky Way Cepheids enables per cent-level calibration of the local distance ladder and the Hubble constant $H_0$. We revisit the Milky Way Cepheid calibration from Gaia EDR3 parallaxes using a fully forward-modelled Bayesian framework that simultaneously infers the period--luminosity relation, the Gaia parallax zero-point offset, and individual stellar distances while explicitly incorporating the disc geometry of the Galaxy through the distance prior and the selection functions specified in two HST SH0ES campaigns. We derive an analytic treatment of the detection probability that accounts for magnitude, parallax, period, and extinction cuts and reduces it to a tractable integral over distance and sky position. Posterior predictive checks show that this generative model matches the observed distributions of parallaxes, magnitudes, and periods. Modelling Galactic structure and survey truncation self-consistently in a Bayesian framework yields period--luminosity parameters that agree with the SH0ES maximum-likelihood values at the ${<}0.5\,\sigma$ level, a consequence of the small intrinsic scatter of the Cepheid period--luminosity relation. Adopting the uniform-in-volume prior recently advocated by H\"og\r{a}s & M\"ortsell (2026), without simultaneously accounting for selection, leads to a ${\sim}\,0.05~\mathrm{mag}$ bias in the period--luminosity zero-point and posterior predictive distributions incompatible with the observed data; this shift is mostly driven by the omission of the selection model, and produces an apparent and unjustified shift in $H_0$ that reflects this mismodelling. A consistent Bayesian treatment of Galactic structure and selection effects reinforces the local distance-ladder determination of $H_0$, and hence the Hubble tension with early-Universe inferences.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Constraining Fifth Forces using the Local Distance Ladder: Implications for the Hubble Tension

We revisit the local distance ladder measurement of the Hubble constant in models where gravity is modified by a fifth force, an additional long-range interaction. In many such theories the force is screened; suppressed in dense environments but potentially active in galaxies used for distance calibration. We model this environmental dependence using three quantities that characterize each galaxy's large-scale gravitational environment: the external gravitational potential $\Phi$, acceleration $a$, and curvature $K$. Our baseline analysis recalibrates the SH0ES-team's Cepheid-supernova distance ladder, incorporating the fifth force via its impact on the Cepheid period-luminosity relation. Across models, a fifth force is strongly constrained, with posteriors concentrated around a null result. The inferred Hubble constant is $H_0 = 73.1 \pm 1.0 \, \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$, retaining the Hubble tension at $>5 \, \sigma$. As an additional test, we incorporate four independent Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB) distance datasets into a joint Cepheid-TRGB-supernova calibration. These combined analyses further constrain the magnitude of fifth-force effects. Taken together, our results show that, across the class of screened fifth-force models we analyze, the calibration of the local distance ladder remains essentially unchanged, leaving the Hubble tension intact.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

The Local Distance Network: a community consensus report on the measurement of the Hubble constant at 1% precision

The direct, empirical determination of the local value of the Hubble constant (H0) has markedly advanced thanks to improved instrumentation, measurement techniques, and distance estimators. However, combining determinations from different estimators is non-trivial, due to correlated calibrations and different analysis methodologies. Using covariance weighting and leveraging the broad and comprehensive community of experts, we constructed a rigorous and transparent Distance Network (DN) to find a consensus value and uncertainty for the local H0. All critically reviewed the available data sets, spanning parallaxes, detached eclipsing binaries, masers, Cepheids, the TRGB, Miras, JAGB stars, SN Ia, Surface Brightness Fluctuations, SN II, the Fundamental Plane, and Tully-Fisher relations and voted for indicators to define a `baseline' DN and others to assess robustness and sensitivity of the results. We provide open-source software and data products to support full transparency and future extensions of this effort. Our conclusions: 1) Local H0 is robustly determined, with first-rank indicators internally consistent within their uncertainties; 2) A covariance-weighted combination yields an uncertainty of 1.1% (baseline) or 0.9% (all estimators); 3) The contribution from SNe Ia is consistent across four current compilations of optical magnitudes or using NIR-only magnitudes; 4) Removing either Cepheids or TRGB has minimal effect; 5) Replacing SNe Ia with galaxy-based indicators changes H0 by less than 0.1 km/s/Mpc, while doubling its uncertainty; 6) The baseline result is H0=73.50+/-0.81 km/s/Mpc. Compared to early Universe results, our result differs by 7.1sigma from flat {\Lambda}CDM with Planck+SPT+ACT and 5.0 sigma with BBN+BAO (DESI2). A networked approach is invaluable for enabling further progress in accuracy and precision without overreliance on any single method, sample or group.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

Looking beyond lambda

Widening cracks are appearing in the $\Lambda$CDM model and it is becoming increasingly clear that the standard cosmological model struggles to describe the full expansion history of the Universe as revealed by the Cosmic Microwave Background, Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurements, and locally calibrated Type Ia supernovae. Taken at face value, recent results suggest a dark sector that may be more complex than commonly assumed. We must prepare for the possibility of moving beyond the $\Lambda$CDM era, where merely testing $w=-1$ is no longer sufficient, and embrace the challenge of unraveling the physics of dark matter, dark energy and gravity on cosmic scales. Guided by increasingly robust data - secured through considerable investment - we should pursue deeper understanding while being open to complexity in the dark sector, rather than settling for the simplest phenomenology. New data from new facilities and a new dark energy task force could help illuminate the path forward while changes to our scientific practices will be essential to navigate the potentially rocky road ahead.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

Envisioning the Distance Ladder in the Era of the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The current state-of-the-art cosmic distance ladder requires three rungs--geometric distances, primary indicators, and Type Ia Supernovae--to achieve a 1% measurement of the Hubble constant $H_0$. The Habitable Worlds Observatory will have the sensitivity and resolution to reduce this to a two-step measurement, eliminating the third rung entirely and reaching into the Hubble flow with stellar distance indicators such as Cepheid variables and the tip of the red giant branch alone. We discuss the requirements for a program to measure $H_0$ to 1% with HWO here, including telescope and instrument design considerations. We also comment on the potential of HWO to measure distances to low-mass dwarf galaxies via their RR Lyrae stars.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. [Abridged]

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2023

The Impact of Dust on Cepheid and Type Ia Supernova Distances

Milky-Way and intergalactic dust extinction and reddening must be accounted for in measurements of distances throughout the universe. This work provides a comprehensive review of the various impacts of cosmic dust focusing specifically on its effects on two key distance indicators used in the distance ladder: Cepheid variable stars and Type Ia supernovae. We review the formalism used for computing and accounting for dust extinction and reddening as a function of wavelength. We also detail the current state of the art knowledge of dust properties in the Milky Way and in host galaxies. We discuss how dust has been accounted for in both the Cepheid and SN distance measurements. Finally, we show how current uncertainties on dust modeling impact the inferred luminosities and distances, but that measurements of the Hubble constant remain robust to these uncertainties.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2023

Reassessing the Constraints from SH0ES Extragalactic Cepheid Amplitudes on Systematic Blending Bias

The SH0ES collaboration Hubble constant determination is in a ${\sim}5\sigma$ difference with the $Planck$ value, known as the Hubble tension. The accuracy of the Hubble constant measured with extragalactic Cepheids depends on robust stellar-crowding background estimation. Riess et al. (R20) compared the light curves amplitudes of extragalactic and MW Cepheids to constrain an unaccounted systematic blending bias, $\gamma=-0.029\pm0.037\,\rm{mag}$, which cannot explain the required, $\gamma=0.24\pm0.05\,\rm{mag}$, to resolve the Hubble tension. Further checks by Riess et al. demonstrate that a possible blending is not likely related to the size of the crowding correction. We repeat the R20 analysis, with the following main differences: (1) we limit the extragalactic and MW Cepheids comparison to periods $P\lesssim50\,\rm{d}$, since the number of MW Cepheids with longer periods is minimal; (2) we use publicly available data to recalibrate amplitude ratios of MW Cepheids in standard passbands; (3) we remeasure the amplitudes of Cepheids in NGC 5584 and NGC 4258 in two HST filters ($F555W$ and $F350LP$) to improve the empirical constraint on their amplitude ratio $A^{555}/A^{350}$. We show that the filter transformations introduce an ${\approx}0.04\,\rm{mag}$ uncertainty in determining $\gamma$, not included by R20. While our final estimate, $\gamma=0.013\pm0.057\,\rm{mag}$, is consistent with the value derived by R20 and is consistent with no bias, the error is somewhat larger, and the best fitting value is shifted by ${\approx}0.04\,\rm{mag}$ and closer to zero. Future observations, especially with JWST, would allow better calibration of $\gamma$.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2021

The Pantheon+ Analysis: SuperCal-Fragilistic Cross Calibration, Retrained SALT2 Light Curve Model, and Calibration Systematic Uncertainty

We present here a re-calibration of the photometric systems used in the Pantheon+ sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) including those used for the SH0ES distance-ladder measurement of H$_0$. We utilize the large and uniform sky coverage of the public Pan-STARRS stellar photometry catalog to cross-calibrate against tertiary standards released by individual SN Ia surveys. The most significant updates over the `SuperCal' cross-calibration used for the previous Pantheon and SH0ES analyses are: 1) expansion of the number of photometric systems (now 25) and filters (now 105), 2) solving for all filter offsets in all systems simultaneously in order to produce a calibration uncertainty covariance matrix that can be used in cosmological-model constraints, and 3) accounting for the change in the fundamental flux calibration of the HST CALSPEC standards from previous versions on the order of $1.5\%$ over a $\Delta \lambda$ of 4000~\AA. The re-calibration of samples used for light-curve fitting has historically been decoupled from the retraining of the light-curve model. Here, we are able to retrain the SALT2 model using this new calibration and find the change in the model coupled with the change to the calibration of the light-curves themselves causes a net distance modulus change ($d\mu/dz$) of 0.04 mag over the redshift range $0<z<1$. We introduce a new formalism to determine the systematic impact on cosmological inference by propagating the covariance in fitted calibration offsets through retraining simultaneously with light-curve fitting and find a total calibration uncertainty impact of $\sigma_w=0.013$, which is roughly half the size of the sample statistical uncertainty. Similarly, we find a systematic SN calibration contribution to the SH0ES H$_0$ uncertainty is less than 0.2~km/s/Mpc, suggesting that SN Ia calibration cannot resolve the current level of the `Hubble Tension'.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2021

The iron and oxygen content of LMC Classical Cepheids and its implications for the Extragalactic Distance Scale and Hubble constant

Classical Cepheids are primary distance indicators and a crucial stepping stone to determining the present-day Hubble constant Ho to the precision and accuracy required to constrain apparent deviations from the LCDM Concordance Cosmological Model. We have measured the iron and oxygen abundances of of 89 Cepheids in the LMC, one of the anchors of the local Distance Scale, quadrupling the prior sample and including 68 of the 70 Cepheids used to constrain Ho by the SH0ES program. The goal is to constrain the extent to which the Cepheid luminosity is influenced by their chemical composition, an important contributor to the uncertainty on the determination of the Ho itself and a critical factor in the internal consistency of the distance ladder. We have derived stellar parameters and abundances from a self-consistent spectroscopic analysis based on Equivalent Width of absorption lines. The [Fe/H] distribution of LMC Cepheids is a single Gaussian with a mean of -0.4079+-0.003 dex (0.1 dex systematic uncertainty) and sigma 0.076+-0.003 dex. The latter is fully compatible with the measurement error and supports the low dispersion of 0.069 mag seen in the NIR HST LMC period-luminosity relation. The uniformity of the abundance has the important consequence that the LMC Cepheids alone cannot provide any meaningful constraint on the dependence of the Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation on chemical composition at any wavelength. This revises a prior claim based on a small sample of 22 LMC Cepheids that there was little dependence (or uncertainty) between composition and NIR luminosity, a conclusion which would produce a conflict between anchors of the distance ladder with different mean abundance. The chemical homogeneity of the LMC Cepheid population makes it an ideal environment to calibrate the metallicity dependence between the more metal poor SMC and metal rich Milky Way and NGC4258.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2019

The Next Generation of Cosmological Measurements with Type Ia Supernovae

While Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) are one of the most mature cosmological probes, the next era promises to be extremely exciting in the number of different ways SNe Ia are used to measure various cosmological parameters. Here we review the experiments in the 2020s that will yield orders of magnitudes more SNe Ia, and the new understandings and capabilities to constrain systematic uncertainties at a level to match these statistics. We then discuss five different cosmological probes with SNe Ia: the conventional Hubble diagram for measuring dark energy properties, the distance ladder for measuring the Hubble constant, peculiar velocities and weak lensing for measuring sigma8 and strong-lens measurements of H0 and other cosmological parameters. For each of these probes, we discuss the experiments that will provide the best measurements and also the SN Ia-related systematics that affect each one.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2019

The Local Perspective on the Hubble Tension: Local Structure Does Not Impact Measurement of the Hubble Constant

We use the largest sample to date of spectroscopic SN Ia distances and redshifts to look for evidence in the Hubble diagram of large scale outflows caused by local voids suggested to exist at z<0.15. Our sample combines data from the Pantheon sample with the Foundation survey and the most recent release of lightcurves from the Carnegie Supernova Project to create a sample of 1295 SNe over a redshift range of 0.01 20%, where the density contrast delta = Delta rho /rho) proposed in some galaxy count studies, and find no evidence of a change in the Hubble constant corresponding to a void with a sharp edge in the redshift range 0.023<z<0.15. With empirical precision of sigma_H_0 = 0.60%, we conclude that the distance ladder measurement is not affected by local density contrasts, in agreement with cosmic variance of sigma_H_0 = 0.42% predicted from simulations of large-scale structure. Given that uncertainty in the distance ladder value is sigma_H_0=2.2%, this does not affect the Hubble tension. We derive a 5 sigma constraint on local density contrasts on scales larger than 69 megaparsec h^-1 of delta < 27%. The presence of local structure does not appear to impede the possibility of measuring the Hubble constant to 1% precision.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2017

The Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS) and the Brightest High-z Galaxies

Massive foreground galaxy clusters magnify and distort the light of objects behind them, permitting a view into both the extremely distant and intrinsically faint galaxy populations. We present here the z ~ 6 - 8 candidate high-redshift galaxies from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS), a Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope survey of 41 massive galaxy clusters spanning an area of ~200 arcmin^2. These clusters were selected to be excellent lenses and we find similar high-redshift sample sizes and magnitude distributions as CLASH. We discover 321 candidate galaxies with photometric redshifts between z ~ 6 to z ~ 8, including extremely bright objects with H-band magnitudes of m_AB ~ 23 mag. As a sample, the observed (lensed) magnitudes of these galaxies are among the brightest known at z> 6, comparable to much wider, blank-field surveys. RELICS demonstrates the efficiency of using strong gravitational lenses to produce high-redshift samples in the epoch of reionization. These brightly observed galaxies are excellent targets for follow-up study with current and future observatories, including the James Webb Space Telescope.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2015

Illuminating a Dark Lens : A Type Ia Supernova Magnified by the Frontier Fields Galaxy Cluster Abell 2744

SN HFF14Tom is a Type Ia Supernova (SN) discovered at z = 1.3457 +- 0.0001 behind the galaxy cluster Abell 2744 (z = 0.308). In a cosmology-independent analysis, we find that HFF14Tom is 0.77 +- 0.15 magnitudes brighter than unlensed Type Ia SNe at similar redshift, implying a lensing magnification of mu_obs = 2.03 +- 0.29. This observed magnification provides a rare opportunity for a direct empirical test of galaxy cluster lens models. Here we test 17 lens models, 13 of which were generated before the SN magnification was known, qualifying as pure "blind tests". The models are collectively fairly accurate: 8 of the models deliver median magnifications that are consistent with the measured mu to within 1-sigma. However, there is a subtle systematic bias: the significant disagreements all involve models overpredicting the magnification. We evaluate possible causes for this mild bias, and find no single physical or methodological explanation to account for it. We do find that model accuracy can be improved to some extent with stringent quality cuts on multiply-imaged systems, such as requiring that a large fraction have spectroscopic redshifts. In addition to testing model accuracies as we have done here, Type Ia SN magnifications could also be used as inputs for future lens models of Abell 2744 and other clusters, providing valuable constraints in regions where traditional strong- and weak-lensing information is unavailable.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2014

Calibrating the cosmic distance scale ladder: the role of the sound horizon scale and the local expansion rate as distance anchors

We exploit cosmological-model independent measurements of the expansion history of the Universe to provide a cosmic distance ladder. These are supernovae type Ia used as standard candles (at redshift between 0.01 and 1.3) and baryon acoustic oscillations (at redshifts between 0.1 and 0.8) as standard rulers. We calibrate (anchor) the ladder in two ways: first using the local $H_0$ value as an anchor at $z$ = 0 (effectively calibrating the standard candles) and secondly using the cosmic microwave background-inferred sound-horizon scale as an anchor (giving the standard ruler length) as an inverse distance ladder. Both methods are consistent, but the uncertainty in the expansion history $H(z)$ is smaller if the sound horizon scale is used. We present inferred values for the sound horizon at radiation drag $r_d$ which do not rely on assumptions about the early expansion history nor on cosmic microwave background measurements but on the cosmic distance ladder and baryon acoustic oscillations measurements. We also present derived values of $H_0$ from the inverse distance ladder and we show that they are in very good agreement with the extrapolated value in a $\Lambda$CDM model from Planck cosmic microwave background data.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2013

Galaxy halo truncation and Giant Arc Surface Brightness Reconstruction in the Cluster MACSJ1206.2-0847

In this work we analyze the mass distribution of MACSJ1206.2-0847, especially focusing on the halo properties of its cluster members. The cluster appears relaxed in its X-ray emission, but has significant amounts of intracluster light which is not centrally concentrated, suggesting that galaxy-scale interactions are still ongoing despite the overall relaxed state. The cluster lenses 12 background galaxies into multiple images and one galaxy at $z=1.033$ into a giant arc and its counterimage. The multiple image positions and the surface brightness distribution (SFB) of the arc which is bent around several cluster members are sensitive to the cluster galaxy halo properties. We model the cluster mass distribution with a NFW profile and the galaxy halos with two parameters for the mass normalization and extent of a reference halo assuming scalings with their observed NIR--light. We match the multiple image positions at an r.m.s. level of $0.85\arcsec$ and can reconstruct the SFB distribution of the arc in several filters to a remarkable accuracy based on this cluster model. The length scale where the enclosed galaxy halo mass is best constrained is about 5 effective radii -- a scale in between those accessible to dynamical and field strong lensing mass estimates on one hand and galaxy--galaxy weak lensing results on the other hand. The velocity dispersion and halo size of a galaxy with $m_{\rm 160W,AB}=19.2$ or $M_{\rm B,Vega}=-20.7$ are $\sigma=150 \rm kms^{-1}$ and $r\approx 26\pm 6 \rm kpc$, indicating that the halos of the cluster galaxies are tidally stripped. We also reconstruct the unlensed source (which is smaller by a factor of $\sim5.8$ in area), demonstrating the increase of morphological information due to lensing and conclude that this galaxy has likely star--forming spiral arms with a red (older) central component.

astro-ph.CO↗