arXiv subjects

Alexander Giessing

Publications and source records attributed to Alexander Giessing.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Statistical Inference on Gradient Flows

Gradient-based algorithms are central to modern statistical estimation, yet their statistical analysis is often restricted to fixed-time behavior, such as convergence to a population target or fluctuations at a prescribed iteration. In many applications, however, uncertainty quantification is needed along the entire optimization path, especially when the stopping time is data-dependent or divergent. In this paper, we develop a theory for time-uniform statistical inference on gradient flows arising from empirical risk minimization. We prove a uniform central limit theorem that characterizes the deviation between empirical and population gradient flows as a continuous-time Gaussian process over the entire nonnegative real line. Building on this result, we introduce an algorithm-aware covariance estimator that evolves jointly with the gradient flow and avoids matrix inversion, resampling, or sample splitting. We show that the covariance estimator is uniformly consistent over time and use it to construct confidence intervals for the target parameter with asymptotically valid coverage. Our results connect optimization dynamics with statistical inference and provide practical tools for uncertainty quantification in gradient-based methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Nonparametric Inference on Dose-Response Curves Without the Positivity Condition

Existing statistical methods in causal inference often assume the positivity condition, where every individual has some chance of receiving any treatment level regardless of covariates. This assumption could be violated in observational studies with continuous treatments. In this paper, we develop identification and estimation theories for causal effects with continuous treatments (i.e., dose-response curves) without relying on the positivity condition. Our approach identifies and estimates the derivative of the treatment effect for each observed sample, integrating it to the treatment level of interest to mitigate bias from the lack of positivity. The method is grounded in a weaker assumption, satisfied by additive confounding models. We propose a fast and reliable numerical recipe for computing our integral estimator in practice and derive its asymptotic properties. To enable valid inference on the dose-response curve and its derivative, we use the nonparametric bootstrap and establish its consistency. The performances of our proposed estimators are validated through simulation studies and an analysis of the effect of air pollution exposure (PM$_{2.5}$) on cardiovascular mortality rates.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Anti-concentration of Suprema of Gaussian Processes and Gaussian Order Statistics

We derive, up to a constant factor, matching lower and upper bounds on the concentration functions of suprema of separable centered Gaussian processes and order statistics of Gaussian random fields. These bounds reveal that suprema of separable centered Gaussian processes $\{X_u : u \in U\}$ exhibit the same anti-concentration properties as a single Gaussian random variable with mean zero and variance $\mathrm{Var}(\sup_{u \in U} X_u)$. To apply these results to high-dimensional statistical problems, it is therefore essential to understand the asymptotic behavior of $\mathrm{Var}(\sup_{u \in U} X_u)$ as the dimension or metric entropy of the index set $U$ increases. Consequently, we also derive lower and upper bounds on this quantity.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Efficient Inference on High-Dimensional Linear Models with Missing Outcomes

This paper is concerned with inference on the regression function of a high-dimensional linear model when outcomes are missing at random. We propose an estimator that combines a Lasso pilot estimate of the regression function with a bias correction term based on the weighted residuals of the Lasso regression. The weights depend on estimates of the missingness probabilities (propensity scores) and solve a convex optimization program that trades off bias and variance optimally. Provided that the propensity scores can be pointwise consistently estimated at in-sample data points, our proposed estimator for the regression function is asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient among all asymptotically linear estimators. Furthermore, the proposed estimator retains its asymptotic properties even if the propensity scores are estimated by modern machine learning techniques. We validate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator through comparative simulation studies and the real-world problem of inferring the stellar masses of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Gaussian and Bootstrap Approximations for Suprema of Empirical Processes

In this paper we develop non-asymptotic Gaussian approximation results for the sampling distribution of suprema of empirical processes when the indexing function class $\mathcal{F}_n$ varies with the sample size $n$ and may not be Donsker. Prior approximations of this type required upper bounds on the metric entropy of $\mathcal{F}_n$ and uniform lower bounds on the variance of $f \in \mathcal{F}_n$ which, both, limited their applicability to high-dimensional inference problems. In contrast, the results in this paper hold under simpler conditions on boundedness, continuity, and the strong variance of the approximating Gaussian process. The results are broadly applicable and yield a novel procedure for bootstrapping the distribution of empirical process suprema based on the truncated Karhunen-Lo{\`e}ve decomposition of the approximating Gaussian process. We demonstrate the flexibility of this new bootstrap procedure by applying it to three fundamental problems in high-dimensional statistics: simultaneous inference on parameter vectors, inference on the spectral norm of covariance matrices, and construction of simultaneous confidence bands for functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

A Bootstrap Hypothesis Test for High-Dimensional Mean Vectors

This paper is concerned with testing global null hypotheses about population mean vectors of high-dimensional data. Current tests require either strong mixing (independence) conditions on the individual components of the high-dimensional data or high-order moment conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel class of bootstrap hypothesis tests based on $\ell_p$-statistics with $p \in [1, \infty]$ which requires neither of these assumptions. We study asymptotic size, unbiasedness, consistency, and Bahadur slope of these tests. Capitalizing on these theoretical insights, we develop a modified bootstrap test with improved power properties and a self-normalized bootstrap test for elliptically distributed data. We then propose two novel bias correction procedures to improve the accuracy of the bootstrap test in finite samples, which leverage measure concentration and hypercontractivity properties of $\ell_p$-norms in high dimensions. Numerical experiments support our theoretical results in finite samples.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Debiased Inference on Heterogeneous Quantile Treatment Effects with Regression Rank-Scores

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital to many scientific fields because the same treatment may affect different individuals differently. Quantile regression provides a natural framework for modeling such heterogeneity. We propose a new method for inference on heterogeneous quantile treatment effects in the presence of high-dimensional covariates. Our estimator combines an $\ell_1$-penalized regression adjustment with a quantile-specific bias correction scheme based on rank scores. We study the theoretical properties of this estimator, including weak convergence and semiparametric efficiency of the estimated heterogeneous quantile treatment effect process. We illustrate the finite-sample performance of our approach through simulations and an empirical example, dealing with the differential effect of statin usage for lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels for the Alzheimer's disease patients who participated in the UK Biobank study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Bootstrapping $\ell_p$-Statistics in High Dimensions

This paper considers a new bootstrap procedure to estimate the distribution of high-dimensional $\ell_p$-statistics, i.e. the $\ell_p$-norms of the sum of $n$ independent $d$-dimensional random vectors with $d \gg n$ and $p \in [1, \infty]$. We provide a non-asymptotic characterization of the sampling distribution of $\ell_p$-statistics based on Gaussian approximation and show that the bootstrap procedure is consistent in the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance under mild conditions on the covariance structure of the data. As an application of the general theory we propose a bootstrap hypothesis test for simultaneous inference on high-dimensional mean vectors. We establish its asymptotic correctness and consistency under high-dimensional alternatives, and discuss the power of the test as well as the size of associated confidence sets. We illustrate the bootstrap and testing procedure numerically on simulated data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

On the Predictive Risk in Misspecified Quantile Regression

In the present paper we investigate the predictive risk of possibly misspecified quantile regression functions. The in-sample risk is well-known to be an overly optimistic estimate of the predictive risk and we provide two relatively simple (asymptotic) characterizations of the associated bias, also called expected optimism. We propose estimates for the expected optimism and the predictive risk, and establish their uniform consistency under mild conditions. Our results hold for models of moderately growing size and allow the quantile function to be incorrectly specified. Empirical evidence from our estimates is encouraging as it compares favorably with cross-validation.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Time-dependent spatially varying graphical models, with application to brain fMRI data analysis

In this work, we present an additive model for space-time data that splits the data into a temporally correlated component and a spatially correlated component. We model the spatially correlated portion using a time-varying Gaussian graphical model. Under assumptions on the smoothness of changes in covariance matrices, we derive strong single sample convergence results, confirming our ability to estimate meaningful graphical structures as they evolve over time. We apply our methodology to the discovery of time-varying spatial structures in human brain fMRI signals.

stat.ME↗