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Andrew B. Pace

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew B. Pace.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Discovery, Characterization, and Potential Origins of a Stream in the Stellar Halo of Nearby LMC-Mass Galaxy NGC 55

We present a previously undetected stellar stream in the halo of the LMC-mass dwarf galaxy NGC 55 (2 Mpc), as part of an ongoing effort to characterize the stellar halos of LMC/SMC-mass dwarfs in the DEEP component of the DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey. This structure is aligned with an outflow traced by H$α$ emission, a spur and cloud of neutral hydrogen, and the ultra-diffuse and possibly disrupting satellite galaxy NGC 55-dw1. We investigate possible ex-situ progenitor scenarios for this stream through the local luminosity-metallicity relation and a set of toy dynamical models that include gaseous, stellar, and dark matter components. If the stream is a product of a previous merger, the progenitor galaxy had an absolute magnitude $M_V \leq -7.2$ and a stellar mass $M_* \geq 10^5 M_{\odot}$ based on extrapolations of the detected stellar populations. If it is disrupted material from the ultra-diffuse satellite, their shared progenitor had an absolute magnitude $M_V \leq -8.3$ and a stellar mass $M_* \geq 10^{5.2} M_{\odot}$. We compare our stream and progenitor scenarios to those for NGC 300, a galaxy with a stellar mass similar to that of NGC~55 and known to host multiple structures in its halo. Our results demonstrate that even relatively isolated LMC-mass galaxies can have complex accretion histories, providing new tests of hierarchical galaxy formation at low masses.

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arXiv2026

From observing strategies to velocity dispersion bias: forward modeling unresolved binaries in ultra-faint dwarf galaxies

Ultra-faint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) in the Milky Way are ideal probes of low-mass galaxy formation and dark matter because they are highly dark-matter dominated. In the lowest-mass systems, however, unresolved binary orbital motion complicates dynamical mass estimates by inflating measured velocity dispersions and biasing the interpretation of the inferred masses. We develop a flexible forward-modeling pipeline, the Binary Observation Simulator, to generate mock multi-epoch radial-velocity observations of binary populations in dwarf galaxies and to quantify how binary-induced biases depend on both galaxy properties and observing strategy. We generate mock samples spanning true velocity dispersion of $σ_{\rm true}\sim0.75$-$3.5$ km/sec, binary fractions of $0.1$-$0.9$, and multi-epoch baselines of up to $10$ yr. We find that, while multi-epoch monitoring reduces the binary-induced bias, residual contamination remains significant for low-mass halos: even a $10$-yr baseline can leave $\sim10$-$120\%$ relative bias for systems with $σ_{\rm true}\lesssim1$ km/sec. We also note that small sample sizes ($\lesssim20$) introduce substantial stochastic scatter in the recovered dispersions, sometimes masking the expected improvement from longer observational baselines. Applying the framework to the real $\sim17$-yr Bootes I observing record reproduces the literature velocity dispersions, yields an empirical correction conditioned on that cadence, and shows that redistributing the same observations onto half the number of stars would have removed roughly half of the residual binary bias. These results emphasize that robust dispersion estimates for the faintest dwarfs require forward modeling of both binary populations and survey cadence.

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arXiv2026

Rubin Observatory Reveals a Dust-Shrouded Halo Globular Cluster in Ophiuchus

We present the discovery of the Milky Way satellite Rubin-GC1 (Rubin J1628-1735) using data from the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Early Data Preview 2. The system was discovered in the direction of the Galactic bulge with $(l, b) \sim (359^{\circ}, 21^{\circ})$ in a region of high stellar density and a foreground reddening of $E(B-V) \approx 0.7$. We simultaneously fit the morphology and isochrone parameters of Rubin-GC1, determining that it is a faint ($M_V = -2.4^{+0.5}_{-0.7}$) and compact ($r_{1/2} = 5^{+1}_{-1}$ pc) Milky Way satellite at a distance of $D_\odot = 31^{+3}_{-3}$ kpc; its stellar population is intermediate-age ($τ=9.2^{+1.2}_{-0.7}$ Gyr) and moderately metal-rich ($\mathrm{[Fe/H]_{iso}}=-0.73^{+0.04}_{-0.04}$). Together, these properties suggest Rubin-GC1 is most likely a star cluster in the faint tail of the luminosity function of globular clusters surrounding the Milky Way. We identify a distinct proper motion signature from Rubin-GC1 in Gaia DR3, and from a comparison of the system's 5D phase space information to $N$-body models of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy's tidal stream, we determine that Rubin-GC1 is likely an accreted cluster associated with the Sagittarius leading arm. The discovery of Rubin-GC1 highlights the potential of Rubin to uncover faint, resolved satellites in dust-shrouded regions of the Milky Way, including remnants of the accretion events that have shaped the Galaxy's hierarchical assembly.

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arXiv2026

$S^5$: Tidal Disruption in Crater 2 and Formation of Diffuse Dwarf Galaxies in the Local Group

We present results of a spectroscopic campaign around the diffuse dwarf galaxy Crater 2 (Cra2) and its tidal tails as part of the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey ($S^5$). Cra2 is a Milky Way dwarf spheroidal satellite with extremely cold kinematics, but a huge size similar to the Small Magellanic Cloud, which may be difficult to explain within collisionless cold dark matter. We identify 143 Cra2 members, of which 114 belong to the galaxy's main body and 29 are deemed part of its stellar stream. We confirm that Cra2 is dynamically cold (central velocity dispersion $2.51^{+0.33}_{-0.30}\,{\rm km \ s^{-1}}$) and also discover a $\approx$7$σ$ velocity gradient consistent with its tidal debris track. We separately estimate the stream's internal velocity dispersion to be $5.74^{+0.98}_{-0.83}\,{\rm km \ s^{-1}}$. We develop a suite of $N$-body simulations with both cuspy and cored density profiles on a realistic Cra2 orbit to compare with $S^5$ observations. We find that the velocity dispersion ratio between Cra2 stream and galaxy ($2.30^{+0.41}_{-0.35}$) is difficult to reconcile with a cuspy halo with fiducial concentration and an initial mass predicted by standard stellar mass--halo mass relationships. Instead, either a cored halo with relatively small core radius or a low-concentration cuspy model can reproduce this ratio. Despite tidal mass loss, Cra2 is metal-poor ($\langle \rm[Fe/H]\rangle=-2.16\pm0.04$) compared to the stellar mass--metallicity relation for its luminosity. Other diffuse dwarf galaxies similar to Cra2 in the Local Group (Antlia 2 and Andromeda 19) also challenge galaxy formation models. Finally, we discuss possible formation scenarios for Cra2, including ram-pressure stripping of a gas-rich progenitor combined with tides.

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arXiv2026

Discovery of the Distant, Ultra-Faint Milky Way Satellite Aquarius IV with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Early Data Preview 2

We present the discovery of Aquarius IV (Rubin J2201$-$0234) -- the first ultra-faint Milky Way satellite to be identified using data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. This system was detected at $\sim$8$σ$ significance using Rubin Early Data Preview 2 (EDP2) photometry and independently confirmed at $\sim$6$σ$ significance in archival Dark Energy Camera imaging. Jointly fitting its morphology and distance, we find that Aquarius IV is a low-luminosity ($M_V=-1.9^{+0.6}_{-1.0}$), compact ($r_{1/2} = 19^{+4}_{-6}$ pc; $r_h = 0.60^{+0.14}_{-0.17}$ arcmin) stellar system in the outer Galactic halo ($D_{\odot} = 109^{+6}_{-8}\ \mathrm{kpc}$). Its stellar population is consistent with an ancient, metal-poor stellar isochrone ($τ= 13$ Gyr, $Z=0.0001$). These properties closely resemble those of the smallest and faintest confirmed ultra-faint dwarf galaxies, though a globular cluster classification is not ruled out. Given the small number of detected member stars in Rubin EDP2, deeper imaging and spectroscopy will be critical for determining the properties and classification of Aquarius IV at higher confidence.

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arXiv2026

Structural Diversity Among the Milky Way's Dwarf Spheroidal Satellites

We fit a flexible double power-law (`$αβγ$') model to the stellar density fields observed for the Milky Way's known dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies. We show that where standard criteria for model selection are decisive, the $αβγ$ model is favored over the special case of the Plummer model, and also over the \sersic\ model and its special case, the exponential. The Milky Way's dSph population exhibits a diverse range of stellar density profile shapes, as quantified by the values we infer for outer and inner power-law indices $β$ and $γ$. Several of the most massive dSphs (e.g., Eridanus II, Fornax, Leo I, Leo II) have steeply-declining outer profiles, with $β\gtrsim 8$; others (e.g., Sextans, Boötes I) fade slowly, with $β\lesssim 4$. The inner profiles of dSphs with stellar mass $\gtrsim 10^5 M_{\odot}$ are consistent with `cores' of uniform stellar density ($γ\approx 0$). At lower masses the slopes of inner density profiles are poorly constrained, except in a few ultrafaint dSphs (e.g., Hercules, Ursa Major II) where we infer steep stellar cusps, with $γ\gtrsim 1.5$. Owing to the $αβγ$ model's flexibility, the inferred halflight radii and total stellar masses are significantly more uncertain than previous estimates, with halflight radii larger by up to an order of magnitude in some cases. Finally, we demonstrate that allowing for flexibility in the shape of the stellar density profile is crucial for dSph mass modeling, where systematic errors associated with choice of stellar density profile can outweigh random errors in the observed velocity dispersions.

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arXiv2026

Boötes III is a Tidally Disrupting Ultra-Faint Dwarf Galaxy on an Eccentric Polar Orbit

We present updated systemic properties of the ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Boötes III from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S$^5$). We identify 21 high-probability members and measure a velocity dispersion of $σ_{v} = 1.69^{+1.03}_{-0.85}$ km s$^{-1}$, about six times smaller than the previously reported $10.7 \pm 3.5$ km s$^{-1}$, and a mean metallicity of [Fe/H] $= -2.34 \pm 0.11$. The revised dispersion brings Boötes III in line with other tidally disrupting dwarfs such as Antlia II and Crater II. Orbit integrations in a Milky Way (MW) + Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) potential confirm a highly eccentric ($e \approx 0.8$), polar ($i \approx 89.5^\circ$) orbit with a recent pericentric passage $\sim 0.14$ Gyr ago at $r_{\rm peri} \approx 9.5$ kpc. Boötes III is thus likely actively tidally disrupting, as its tidal radius at pericenter, $r_t \approx 164$ pc, is only $\sim 0.35$ of its half-light radius. The unusually low dispersion also implies that Boötes III has either lost most of its dark matter to tides or hosts a cored inner density profile, making it a probe of the nature of dark matter. Simulated tidal streams are broadly consistent with the Styx stellar stream, though the predicted track and kinematics are sensitive to the MW halo mass, LMC mass, and solar velocity. Boötes III overlaps the Typhon stream in integrals-of-motion space but has a much lower mean metallicity, suggesting the two are not the same system but may have had a common group infall origin. Sagittarius-stream contamination prevents a direct tidal-tail detection, so deep spectroscopic follow-up remains essential, both to confirm Styx as a genuine stream and to establish it as Boötes III's tidal tail.

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arXiv2026

Dark Matter in Draco and Boötes I: Hints of a Core in an Ultra-Faint Dwarf from Simulation-Based Inference

The density profiles of dwarf spheroidal galaxies are among the most sensitive probes of dark matter physics, yet extracting them from noisy stellar kinematics remains a fundamental obstacle. We present GraphNPE, a simulation-based inference method for dynamical mass modeling that incorporates measurement uncertainties and spectroscopic selection functions in the forward model. Using mock data, we show that methods relying solely on line-of-sight velocity dispersion are biased toward cuspy density profiles, even in the absence of the mass-anisotropy degeneracy. By accessing higher-order velocity moments, particularly line-of-sight kurtosis, GraphNPE breaks key degeneracies and recovers density profiles with substantially less bias. We apply GraphNPE to Draco and Boötes I using MMT/Hectochelle and DESI for Draco, and the S5 survey for Boötes I. For each, we report density profiles and dark matter $J$- and $D$-factors. For Draco, GraphNPE yields consistent results across datasets, marginally preferring a cuspy inner profile ($ρ_{150} \sim 1.6-1.9 \times 10^8\,\mathrm{M}_\odot\,\mathrm{kpc}^{-3}$) in agreement with literature. On DESI, however, second-order Jeans modeling fits the dispersion but fails to reproduce the kurtosis, demonstrating higher-order moments are essential. For Boötes I, limited statistical power prevents definitive determination of the inner slope. GraphNPE recovers $ρ_{150} = 0.36^{+0.15}_{-0.11} \times 10^8\,\mathrm{M}_\odot\,\mathrm{kpc}^{-3}$, significantly lower than literature and consistent with a cored inner profile. This places Boötes I among the lowest density dwarfs at comparable stellar masses.

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arXiv2026

The DECam MAGIC Survey: Uncovering the Tidal Tails of the Crater II Dwarf Galaxy

Crater II (CraII), a large and low-density dwarf spheroidal galaxy, has unusual observed properties that are difficult to reproduce in cold dark matter simulations. Ongoing tidal disruption may help explain the discrepancies, as evidenced by the recent discovery of tidal tails. Here we present metallicity-sensitive narrowband photometry of the Ca II H and K lines from the Dark Energy Camera, covering $128$ deg$^2$ across the center and identified tidal tails of CraII as part of the Mapping the Ancient Galaxy in CaHK (MAGIC) survey. Our combined photometric metallicity, color-magnitude, proper motion, and parallax selections identify 162 CraII candidates. Of these, 37 candidates are located in the tidal tails which extend at least $7^\circ$ ($\sim 95$ kpc) from the center of CraII, suggesting it has lost $\gtrsim 25$% of its initial stellar mass. We confirm low contamination rates with dedicated control fields and highlight the extremely low surface brightness stellar features that can be uncovered with CaHK data, as faint as $\sim 36$ mag arcsec$^{-2}$. We also make the first detection of a metallicity gradient ($-0.34\pm0.17~{\rm dex}~{\rm deg}^{-1}$) in the center of the galaxy and infer a stream width of $w\sim 0.8^\circ$, roughly 50% larger than the CraII half-light radius. The detection of candidates in the most distant CraII pointings from its center implies that the tidal tails extend beyond our footprint. We compare the CraII stream to $N$-body models with "cored" and "cuspy" dark matter halo progenitors, determining that CraII's density profile is still ambiguous and warrants further modeling.

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arXiv2026

Hubble Astrometry for the Local Group and Beyond in the 2030s

Hubble's long, stable astrometric baseline creates a rare opportunity for discovery in the Local Group and beyond. Many nearby galaxies, streams, and star clusters already have archival first-epoch imaging in hand, so future HST observations over the next decade can turn those data into precise proper motions. For many Milky Way satellites, existing measurements already constrain orbital motion at a useful level, but HST still offers a path to full 3D kinematics, internal motions, and more distant systems where current data remain insufficient. That opens the window to dynamical studies inaccessible through line-of-sight velocities alone, revealing orbital histories, internal kinematics, environmental processing, and the dark-matter structure of nearby galaxies. This white paper identifies HST astrometry as an opportunity to capitalize on archival baselines by completing long-baseline measurements where first epochs already exist, establishing new first epochs where critical gaps remain, and assembling a legacy sample for future JWST, Roman, and HWO-era follow-up. The result will be a transformative dataset for the Local Group and Local Volume, driving discovery now while laying the groundwork for the next generation of dynamical studies for resolved stellar populations.

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arXiv2026

Sifting for a Stream: The Morphology of the $300S$ Stellar Stream

Stellar streams are sensitive laboratories for understanding the small-scale structure in our Galaxy's gravitational field. Here, we analyze the morphology of the $300S$ stellar stream, which has an eccentric, retrograde orbit and thus could be an especially powerful probe of both baryonic and dark substructures within the Milky Way. Due to extensive background contamination from the Sagittarius stream (Sgr), we perform an analysis combining Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey photometry, $\textit{Gaia}$ DR3 proper motions, and spectroscopy from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey ($\textit{S}^5$). We redetermine the stream coordinate system and distance gradient, then apply two approaches to describe $300S$'s morphology. In the first, we analyze stars from $\textit{Gaia}$ using proper motions to remove Sgr. In the second, we generate a simultaneous model of $300S$ and Sgr based purely on photometric information. Both approaches agree within their respective domains and describe the stream over a region spanning $33^\circ$. Overall, $300S$ has three well-defined density peaks and smooth variations in stream width. Furthermore, $300S$ has a possible gap of $\sim 4.7^\circ$ and a kink. Dynamical modeling of the kink implies that $300S$ was dramatically influenced by the Large Magellanic Cloud. This is the first model of $300S$'s morphology across its entire known footprint, opening the door for deeper analysis to constrain the structures of the Milky Way.

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arXiv2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles

In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way-mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with Cold Dark Matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way-mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.

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arXiv2026

A second-generation star in a relic dwarf galaxy

Stars that contain only trace amounts of elements heavier than helium, referred to as having low "metallicity", preserve the chemical fingerprints of the first generation of stars and supernovae. In the Milky Way, the lowest metallicity stars show an extreme over-abundance of carbon relative to other elements, which has been hypothesized to be a unique result of the first low-energy supernovae. However, the origin of this signature has remained a mystery, since no such stars have been discovered in the ancient dwarf galaxies where they are thought to have formed. Here, we present observations of a star in the >10 billion year old ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Pictor II, that shows the lowest iron and calcium abundances outside the Milky Way (<1/43,000th solar and ~1/160,000th solar), with a factor of >3000x relative carbon enhancement. As the first unambiguous second-generation star in a relic dwarf galaxy, this object demonstrates that carbon-enhanced second-generation stars can originate in primordial small-scale systems. This star supports the hypothesis that carbon-enhancement is produced by low-energy-supernovae, since the yields of energetic supernovae are harder to retain in small-scale environments. This key local signature of chemical enrichment by the first stars traces a regime inaccessible to current high-redshift observations, which cannot detect the early enrichment of the smallest galaxies.

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arXiv2026

Epicyclic Density Variations in the Indus Stellar Stream

Longitudinal density fluctuations observed in stellar streams can result from gravitational interactions with massive perturbers in the Milky Way, such as dark matter subhalos. Analysing these density variations provides a powerful probe of properties (motion, mass, size, etc.) of the perturbing objects. However, caution is needed because density variations may arise naturally from internal dynamics of streams, namely epicycles. In this work, we focus on the Indus stellar stream, a remnant of an ancient dwarf satellite of the Galaxy. An Indus stream spanning $\sim 90^\circ$ is revealed in the southern Galactic sky using a comprehensive matched-filter analysis utilizing data from the Gaia mission. A spatial density model is fitted to the filtered map to quantitatively characterize the morphology, which demonstrates episodic density peaks and gaps in the stream. Through N-body simulations, we show that there are strong epicyclic motions of stars happening during tidal disruptions. The present-day longitudinal densities from simulations are comparable to the measurement from data, with similar numbers and locations of peaks and gaps, suggesting that the observed density should mainly be caused by epicycles. We also find that a cuspy dark matter halo for the Indus dwarf is likely to produce milder stellar epicyclic peaks compared to a cored halo which results in steeper peaks. This arises from different instantaneous mass loss due to distinct central mass distributions of halos, where a cored halo usually leads to severer tidal stripping. The observed density exhibits moderate peak sharpness, implying that Indus may have originally possessed a cuspy halo.

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arXiv2026

A Chemodynamical Census of the Milky Way's Ultra-Faint Compact Satellites. I. A First Population-Level Look at the Internal Kinematics and Metallicities of 19 Extremely-Low-Mass Halo Stellar Systems

Deep, wide-area photometric surveys have uncovered a population of compact ($r_{1/2} \approx$ 1-15 pc), extremely-low-mass ($M_* \approx$ 20-4000 $M_{\odot}$) stellar systems in the Milky Way halo that are smaller in size than known ultra-faint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) and substantially fainter than most classical globular clusters (GCs). Very little is known about the nature and origins of this population of "Ultra-Faint Compact Satellites" (UFCSs) owing to a dearth of spectroscopic measurements. Here, we present the first spectroscopic census of these compact systems based on Magellan/IMACS and Keck/DEIMOS observations of 19 individual UFCSs, representing $\sim$2/3 of the known population. We securely measure mean radial velocities for all 19 systems, velocity dispersions for 15 (predominantly upper limits), metallicities for 17, metallicity dispersions for 8, and $\textit{Gaia}$-based mean proper motions for 18. This large new spectroscopic sample provides the first insights into population-level trends for these extreme satellites. We demonstrate that: (1) the UFCSs are kinematically colder, on average, than the UFDs, disfavoring very dense dark matter halos in most cases, (2) the UFCS population is chemically diverse, spanning a factor of $\sim$300 in mean iron abundance ($\rm -3.3 \lesssim [Fe/H] \lesssim -0.8$), with multiple systems falling beneath the "metallicity floor" proposed for GCs, and (3) while some higher-metallicity and/or younger UFCSs are clearly star clusters, the dynamical and/or chemical evidence allows the possibility that up to $\sim$50% of the UFCSs in our sample (9 of 19) may represent the smallest and least-massive galaxies yet discovered.

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arXiv2026

Multiple Populations and a CH Star Found in the 300S Globular Cluster Stellar Stream

Milky Way globular clusters (GCs) display chemical enrichment in a phenomenon called multiple stellar populations (MSPs). While the enrichment mechanism is not fully understood, there is a correlation between a cluster's mass and the fraction of enriched stars found therein. However, present-day GC masses are often smaller than their masses at the time of formation due to dynamical mass loss. In this work, we explore the relationship between mass and MSPs using the stellar stream 300S. We present the chemical abundances of eight red giant branch member stars in 300S with high-resolution spectroscopy from Magellan/MIKE. We identify one enriched star characteristic of MSPs and no detectable metallicity dispersion, confirming that the progenitor of 300S was a globular cluster. The fraction of enriched stars (12.5\%) observed in our 300S stars is less than the 50\% of stars found enriched in Milky Way GCs of comparable present-day mass ($\sim10^{4.5}$\msun). We calculate the mass of 300S's progenitor and compare it to the initial masses of intact GCs, finding that 300S aligns well with the trend between the system mass at formation and enrichment. 300S's progenitor may straddle the critical mass threshold for the formation of MSPs and can therefore serve as a benchmark for the stellar enrichment process. Additionally, we identify a CH star, with high abundances of \textit{s}-process elements, probably accreted from a binary companion. The rarity of such binaries in intact GCs may imply stellar streams permit the survival of binaries that would otherwise be disrupted.

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arXiv2025

Detailed Chemical Abundance Analysis of the Brightest Stars in the Turranburra and Willka Yaku Stellar Streams

We present a detailed chemical abundance analysis of the three brightest known stars from each of the Turranburra and Willka Yaku stellar streams using high-resolution Magellan/MIKE spectra. Abundances for 27 elements, ranging from carbon to dysprosium, were derived. Our results support the original classification that Turranburra, with a low average metallicity of $\mathrm{[Fe/H]=-2.45} \pm 0.07$, likely originates from a dwarf-galaxy progenitor. Willka Yaku has a low average metallicity of $\mathrm{[Fe/H]=-2.35 \pm 0.03}$ with a small scatter in the abundances, consistent with a globular cluster progenitor as suggested by previous studies. Both streams exhibit mild enhancements in neutron-capture elements, with averages of $\mathrm{[Eu II/Fe]}=$ $0.47 \pm{0.09}$ for Turranburra and $0.44 \pm{0.05}$ for Willka Yaku, consistent with enrichment from an $r$-process event. A similar enrichment is observed in other stellar streams, and we further discuss this signature as it relates to the potential enrichment histories of these two streams.

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arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS Cold Dark Matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way-mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local DM speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the DM speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the Standard Halo Model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way-mass halos.

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