arXiv subjects

Anna Bonaldi

Publications and source records attributed to Anna Bonaldi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

HI Simulations for Cosmology with the SKA Observatory

We present a comparative overview of state-of-the-art methods for modelling the distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) in the post-reionization Universe, developed in preparation for upcoming SKAO cosmological surveys. Our aim is to assess how different physical and empirical assumptions reflect into predictions for key observables such as the cosmic HI density, the HI mass function, and the HI-halo mass relation. We consider both: (i) semi-analytical approaches that self-consistently evolve baryonic components within dark matter merger trees through physically motivated prescriptions and (ii) empirical schemes tailored to different observables and based on fast approximations designed for large ensemble studies. By comparing the predictions from the different methods considered, we find overall consistency in integrated quantities such as $\Omega_{\mathrm{HI}}$, yet systematic differences in the detailed shape and scatter of the HI--halo mass relation and its redshift evolution. Semi-analytical models offer physically grounded predictions but depend on assumed prescriptions, while empirical methods provide flexibility and computational efficiency at the expense of robustness in extrapolated regions of the parameter space. The increasing number of HI measurements from SKA precursors and pathfinders (including surveys with MeerKAT, ASKAP, and FAST) will provide critical observational constraints to refine and calibrate current simulation methodologies. In turn, increasingly realistic HI simulations play a key role in interpreting these data, guiding survey design and analysis strategies, in preparation for the advent of SKAO data.

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arXiv2026

Advancing Astrophysics with the SKA II

Advancing Astrophysics with the SKA II (AASKAII), written by our science community, outlines the transformative scientific advances that will be enabled by the SKA telescopes. In the decade since the publication of the previous edition, telescope designs have matured, construction has commenced, and the SKA Organisation has evolved into the SKA Observatory (SKAO). At the same time, observations from SKA precursor and pathfinder telescopes have provided new insights into longstanding scientific challenges while revealing entirely new phenomena. Published in advance of the first science verification campaign for the SKA Observatory, this volume looks ahead to the coming decades of discovery and innovation in radio astronomy. AASKAII spans the broad range of scientific research enabled by the SKA telescopes, SKA-Mid and SKA-Low. The contributions are organised into six thematic categories according to their scientific focus. The opening section presents overview chapters from the SKA Science Working Groups, around which our community is organised. Each overview provides the broader context that connects the contributions in this volume to the key scientific questions being pursued by their respective communities.

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arXiv2026

Painting a full radio sky -- Empirical mock catalogues with multiple source populations for future radio surveys

Upcoming radio surveys will probe the sky with unprecedented depth and sky coverage, enabling a broad range of cosmological and astrophysical applications, as well as powerful synergies with experiments at other wavelengths. The preparation and scientific exploitation of these surveys require realistic mock catalogues that capture the complexity of the radio sky and the interplay of its emitting components. We present a modular and extensible algorithm for generating empirical simulations over the full radio sky, i.e. a solid angle of $4\pi$ steradians ($f_{\rm sky}=1$), down to redshift $z=5$, comprising both radio continuum and line emission. The framework combines a simulated dark-matter light-cone with empirically sampled galaxy populations and a probabilistic galaxy-halo assignment scheme, producing self-consistent mock catalogues including multiple radio populations on the same light-cone. We release two public catalogues: a shallow catalogue, fully constrained by existing observational data and limited to flux thresholds of $S_\text{1.4 GHz}^\text{lim} \sim 8\times10^{-5}\ \text{Jy}$ at $1.4\ \text{GHz}$ and $S_\text{21}^\text{lim} \sim 2\ \text{Jy}\cdot\text{Hz}$ for the HI 21 cm line; and a deep catalogue extending the calibrated empirical model to better sensitivities, broadly matching future SKAO surveys, with flux limits of $S_\text{1.4 GHz}^\text{lim} \sim 4\times10^{-5}\ \text{Jy}$ and $S_\text{21}^\text{lim} \sim 0.3\ \text{Jy}\cdot\text{Hz}$. The catalogues include radio continuum active galactic nuclei and star-forming galaxies, together with HI-emitting galaxies, for a total of more than 260 million sources in the shallow catalogue and more than 1 billion in the deep catalogue. We validate the simulations by analysing their statistical properties: the mocks reproduce the targeted clustering and population statistics while retaining minimal physical assumptions.

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arXiv2025

Generating all-sky radio continuum clustering simulations with GHOST

Techniques using multiple tracers of the large scale structure of the universe show great promise for examining the fundamentals of our Universe's cosmology. Such techniques rely on the different relationship between the overdensity of tracers and the broader matter overdensity, enabling cosmic-variance-free tests of primordial non-Gaussianity in the initial curvature perturbations. There is a great opportunity for current and future all-sky extra-galactic radio surveys to make use of this technique to test for non-Gaussianity at a precision greater than existing all-sky constraints from the cosmic microwave background. To realize this goal there is a need for accurate simulations. Previous radio galaxy simulations have either been realistic but covering only a small area (and so unhelpful for cosmological forecasts), or all-sky dark matter only cosmological simulations but having no connection to a real radio galaxy population. In this study, we use the FLAMINGO suite of cosmological surveys, as well as the matching of dark matter halos to radio galaxy population, to create an accurate sky simulation in order to examine the feasibility of multi-tracer techniques. We present an analysis of the clustering (with a bias model for the simulation), as well as redshift distributions, source counts and radio luminosity functions, and discuss future work on non-Gaussianity detection.

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arXiv2025

SKA-Low simulations for a cosmic dawn/epoch of reionisation deep field

We present a realistic simulation of an SKA-Low cosmic dawn/epoch of reionisation (CD/EoR) observation, which can be used to further the development of foreground-mitigation approaches. The simulation corresponds to a deep (1000 h) integration pointing over the 106 MHz-196 MHz frequency range. The sky components include the CD/EoR signal, extragalactic foreground emission featuring strong (over 5 Jy at 150 MHz) out-of-field sources and in-field sources down to 1 microJy at 150 MHz, and Galactic emission from the GSM2016 model complemented with small-scales structure beyond its native $\sim 1$ deg resolution from a magneto-hydrodynamic simulation of the interstellar medium. Modeled errors include a partial de-mixing of the out-of-field sources, direction-dependent calibration errors leading to residual ionospheric effects, and direction-independent gain calibration errors, on top of thermal noise. Simulated observations are delivered as visibilities as well as imaging products with natural weighting. The true, uncorrupted, CD/EoR signal is also delivered, to allow an assessment of the efficacy of foreground-mitigation approaches. The codes used to generate these simulations are also delivered, so that new simulated datasets can be produced. This simulation has been the basis for the SKA Science Data Challenge 3a (SDC3a), which addressed foreground removal.

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arXiv2024

A New Model for the Extragalactic Radio Sky at Low Frequency Calibrated Using the LOFAR Two-metre Survey

Building the radio sky template are crucial for detecting the 21 cm emission line signal from the Epoch of Reionization (EoR), as well as for other cosmological research endeavors. Utilizing data from the LOFAR Two-meter Sky Survey (LoTSS) at 150 MHz, we recalibrated the luminosity function for various types of radio sources, including High Excitation Radio Galaxies (HERGs), Low Excitation Radio Galaxies (LERGs), Radio-Quiet Active Galactic Nuclei (RQ-AGNs), and Star-Forming Galaxies (SFGs). We subsequently updated the Tiered Radio Extragalactic Continuum Simulation (T-RECS) code to generate refined mock radio source catalogues. The simulated source counts from this work align more closely with observed data at redshifts greater than $z>4$. Additionally, the differential source counts in total intensity within the flux density range of $0.1-1~\mathrm{mJy}$ closely mirror actual observations. Due to our model incorporating a lower number of faint sources compared to T-RECS, it predicts a reduced power spectrum for point sources, suggesting a potential advantage in studies in low frequency band.

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arXiv2023

Looking ahead to the sky with the Square Kilometre Array: simulating flux densities & resolved radio morphologies of $0<z<2.5$ star-forming galaxies

SKA-MID surveys will be the first in the radio domain to achieve clearly sub-arcsecond resolution at high sensitivity over large areas, opening new science applications for galaxy evolution. To investigate the potential of these surveys, we create simulated SKA-MID images of a $\sim$0.04 deg$^{2}$ region of GOODS-North, constructed using multi-band HST imaging of 1723 real galaxies containing significant substructure at $0<z<2.5$. We create images at the proposed depths of the band 2 wide, deep and ultradeep reference surveys (RMS = 1.0 $\mu$Jy, 0.2 $\mu$Jy and 0.05 $\mu$Jy over 1000 deg$^{2}$, 10-30 deg$^{2}$ and 1 deg$^{2}$ respectively), using the telescope response of SKA-MID at 0.6" resolution. We quantify the star-formation rate - stellar mass space the surveys will probe, and asses to which stellar masses they will be complete. We measure galaxy flux density, half-light radius ($R_{50}$), concentration, Gini (distribution of flux), second-order moment of the brightest pixels ($M_{20}$) and asymmetry before and after simulation with the SKA response, to perform input-output tests as a function of depth, separating the effects of convolution and noise. We find that the recovery of Gini and asymmetry is more dependent on survey depth than for $R_{50}$, concentration and $M_{20}$. We also assess the relative ranking of parameters before and after observation with SKA-MID. $R_{50}$ best retains its ranking, whilst asymmetries are poorly recovered. We confirm that the wide tier will be suited to the study of highly star-forming galaxies across different environments, whilst the ultradeep tier will enable detailed morphological analysis to lower SFRs.

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arXiv2023

The Tiered Radio Extragalactic Continuum (T-RECS) simulation II: HI emission and continuum-HI cross-correlation

In this paper we extend the Tiered Radio Extragalactic Continuum Simulation (T-RECS) to include HI emission. The HI T-RECS model is based on the most recent HI mass function estimates, combined with prescriptions to convert HI mass to total integrated HI flux. It further models source size, morphology and kinematics, including rotational velocity and HI line width. The continuum T-RECS model is updated to improve the agreement with deeper number counts available at 150\,MHz. The model for star-forming galaxies (SFGs) is also modified according to the most recent indications of a star formation rate (SFR)--radio luminosity relation, which depends primarily on stellar mass rather than redshift. We further introduce prescriptions to associate an HI mass to the T-RECS radio continuum SFG and Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) populations. This gives us a way to meaningfully associate counterparts between HI and continuum catalogues, thus building HI $\times$ continuum simulated observations. Clustering properties of the sources in both HI and continuum are reproduced by associating the galaxies to dark matter haloes of a cosmological simulation. We deliver a set of mock catalogues, as well as the code to produce them, which can be used for simulating observations and predicting results from radio surveys with existing and forthcoming radio facilities, such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA)

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arXiv2022

Evolution of thermal and nonthermal radio continuum emission on kpc scales--Predictions for SKA

Resolved maps of the thermal and nonthermal radio continuum (RC) emission of distant galaxies are a powerful tool for understanding the role of the interstellar medium (ISM) in the evolution of galaxies. We simulate the RC surface brightness of present-day star forming galaxies in the past at $0.15<z<3$ considering two cases of radio size evolution: (1)~no evolution, and (2)~same evolution as in the optical. We aim to investigate the a)~structure of the thermal and nonthermal emission on kpc scales, b)~evolution of the thermal fraction and synchrotron spectrum at mid-radio frequencies ($\simeq$1-10\,GHz), and c)~capability of the proposed SKA1-MID reference surveys in detecting the RC emitting structures. The synchrotron spectrum flattens with $z$ causing curvature in the observed mid-radio SEDs of galaxies at higher $z$. The spectral index reported in recent observational studies agrees better with the no size evolution scenario. In this case, the mean thermal fraction observed at 1.4\,GHz increases with redshift by more than 30\% from $z=0.15$ to $z=2$ because of the drop of the synchrotron emission at higher rest-frame~frequencies. More massive galaxies have lower thermal fractions and experience a faster flattening of the nonthermal spectrum. The proposed SKA1-MID band~2 reference survey, unveils the ISM in M51- and NGC6946-like galaxies (with ${\rm M_{\star}}\simeq10^{10}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$) up to $z=3$. This survey detects lower-mass galaxies like M33 (${\rm M_{\star}}\simeq10^{9}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$) only at low redshifts $z\lesssim 0.5$. For a proper separation of the RC emitting processes at the peak of star formation, it is vital to include band~1 into the SKA1-MID reference surveys.

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arXiv2021

Galactic foreground constraints on primordial $B$-mode detection for ground-based experiments

Contamination by polarized foregrounds is one of the biggest challenges for future polarized cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys and the potential detection of primordial $B$-modes. Future experiments, such as Simons Observatory (SO) and CMB-S4, will aim at very deep observations in relatively small ($f_{\rm sky} \sim 0.1$) areas of the sky. In this work, we investigate the forecasted performance, as a function of the survey field location on the sky, for regions over the full sky, balancing between polarized foreground avoidance and foreground component separation modeling needs. To do this, we simulate observations by an SO-like experiment and measure the error bar on the detection of the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $\sigma(r)$, with a pipeline that includes a parametric component separation method, the Correlated Component Analysis, and the use of the Fisher information matrix. We forecast the performance over 192 survey areas covering the full sky and also for optimized low-foreground regions. We find that modeling the spectral energy distribution of foregrounds is the most important factor, and any mismatch will result in residuals and bias in the primordial $B$-modes. At these noise levels, $\sigma(r)$ is not especially sensitive to the level of foreground contamination, provided the survey targets the least-contaminated regions of the sky close to the Galactic poles.

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arXiv2020

SuperCLASS -- III. Weak lensing from radio and optical observations in Data Release 1

We describe the first results on weak gravitational lensing from the SuperCLASS survey: the first survey specifically designed to measure the weak lensing effect in radio-wavelength data, both alone and in cross-correlation with optical data. We analyse 1.53 square degrees of optical data from the Subaru telescope and 0.26 square degrees of radio data from the e-MERLIN and VLA telescopes (the DR1 data set). Using standard methodologies on the optical data only we make a significant (10 sigma) detection of the weak lensing signal (a shear power spectrum) due to the massive supercluster of galaxies in the targeted region. For the radio data we develop a new method to measure the shapes of galaxies from the interferometric data, and we construct a simulation pipeline to validate this method. We then apply this analysis to our radio observations, treating the e-MERLIN and VLA data independently. We achieve source densities of 0.5 per square arcmin in the VLA data and 0.06 per square arcmin in the e-MERLIN data, numbers which prove too small to allow a detection of a weak lensing signal in either the radio data alone or in cross-correlation with the optical data. Finally, we show preliminary results from a visibility-plane combination of the data from e-MERLIN and VLA which will be used for the forthcoming full SuperCLASS data release. This approach to data combination is expected to enhance both the number density of weak lensing sources available and the fidelity with which their shapes can be measured.

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arXiv2020

SuperCLASS -- I. The Super CLuster Assisted Shear Survey: Project overview and Data Release 1

The SuperCLuster Assisted Shear Survey (SuperCLASS) is a legacy programme using the e-MERLIN interferometric array. The aim is to observe the sky at L-band (1.4 GHz) to a r.m.s. of 7 uJy per beam over an area of ~1 square degree centred on the Abell 981 supercluster. The main scientific objectives of the project are: (i) to detect the effects of weak lensing in the radio in preparation for similar measurements with the Square Kilometre Array (SKA); (ii) an extinction free census of star formation and AGN activity out to z~1. In this paper we give an overview of the project including the science goals and multi-wavelength coverage before presenting the first data release. We have analysed around 400 hours of e-MERLIN data allowing us to create a Data Release 1 (DR1) mosaic of ~0.26 square degrees to the full depth. These observations have been supplemented with complementary radio observations from the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) and optical/near infra-red observations taken with the Subaru, Canada-France-Hawaii and Spitzer Telescopes. The main data product is a catalogue of 887 sources detected by the VLA, of which 395 are detected by e-MERLIN and 197 of these are resolved. We have investigated the size, flux and spectral index properties of these sources finding them compatible with previous studies. Preliminary photometric redshifts, and an assessment of galaxy shapes measured in the radio data, combined with a radio-optical cross-correlation technique probing cosmic shear in a supercluster environment, are presented in companion papers.

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arXiv2019

Anticipated Performance of the Square Kilometre Array -- Phase 1 (SKA1)

The Square Kilometre Array (SKA), currently under design, will be a transformational facility for studying the Universe at centimetre and metre wavelengths in the next decade and beyond. This paper provides the current best estimate of the anticipated performance of SKA Phase 1 (SKA1), using detailed design work, before actual on-sky measurements have been made. It will be updated as new information becomes available. The information contained in this paper takes precedent over any previous documents.

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arXiv2019

ALMA Band 3 polarimetric follow-up of a complete sample of faint PACO sources

We present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimiter Array (ALMA) high sensitivity ($\sigma_P \simeq 0.4\,$mJy) polarimetric observations at $97.5\,$GHz (Band 3) of a complete sample of $32$ extragalactic radio sources drawn from the faint Planck-ATCA Co-eval Observations (PACO) sample ($b<-75^\circ$, compact sources brighter than $200\,$mJy at $20\,$GHz). We achieved a detection rate of $~97\%$ at $3\,\sigma$ (only $1$ non-detection). We complement these observations with new Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) data between $2.1$ and $35\,$GHz obtained within a few months and with data published in earlier papers from our collaboration. Adding the co-eval GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison widefield array (GLEAM) survey detections between $70\,$ and $230\,$MHz for our sources, we present spectra over more than $3$ decades in frequency in total intensity and over about $1.7$ decades in polarization. The spectra of our sources are smooth over the whole frequency range, with no sign of dust emission from the host galaxy at mm wavelengths nor of a sharp high frequency decline due, for example, to electron ageing. We do however find indications of multiple emitting components and present a classification based on the number of detected components. We analyze the polarization fraction behaviour and distributions up to $97\,$GHz for different source classes. Source counts in polarization are presented at $95\,$GHz.

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arXiv2018

Square Kilometre Array Science Data Challenge 1

The Square Kilometre Array (SKA, https://skatelescope.org) will be the world's largest radio telescope. SKA Science Data Challenges will be regularly issued to the community as part of the science preparatory activities. The purpose of these challenges is to inform the development of the data reduction workflows, to allow the science community to get familiar with the standard products the SKA will deliver, and optimise their analyses to extract science from them. These challenges may consist of real data from currently operating radio facilities or of simulated SKA data. The purpose of this document is to provide information on how the SKA Science data challenge #1 (SDC1) has been produced and to set the challenge for the community. For more information on how to take part in the challenge and to download the data see https://astronomers.skatelescope.org/ska-science-data-challenge-1/

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arXiv2018

Cosmology with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array; Red Book 2018: Technical specifications and performance forecasts

We present a detailed overview of the cosmological surveys that will be carried out with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1), and the science that they will enable. We highlight three main surveys: a medium-deep continuum weak lensing and low-redshift spectroscopic HI galaxy survey over 5,000 sqdeg; a wide and deep continuum galaxy and HI intensity mapping survey over 20,000 sqdeg from z = 0.35 - 3; and a deep, high-redshift HI intensity mapping survey over 100 sqdeg from z = 3 - 6. Taken together, these surveys will achieve an array of important scientific goals: measuring the equation of state of dark energy out to z ~ 3 with percent-level precision measurements of the cosmic expansion rate; constraining possible deviations from General Relativity on cosmological scales by measuring the growth rate of structure through multiple independent methods; mapping the structure of the Universe on the largest accessible scales, thus constraining fundamental properties such as isotropy, homogeneity, and non-Gaussianity; and measuring the HI density and bias out to z = 6. These surveys will also provide highly complementary clustering and weak lensing measurements that have independent systematic uncertainties to those of optical surveys like LSST and Euclid, leading to a multitude of synergies that can improve constraints significantly beyond what optical or radio surveys can achieve on their own. This document, the 2018 Red Book, provides reference technical specifications, cosmological parameter forecasts, and an overview of relevant systematic effects for the three key surveys, and will be regularly updated by the Cosmology Science Working Group in the run up to start of operations and the Key Science Programme of SKA1.

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arXiv2018

The Tiered Radio Extragalactic Continuum Simulation (T-RECS)

We present the Tiered Radio Extragalactic Continuum Simulation (T-RECS): a new simulation of the radio sky in continuum, over the 150 MHz-20 GHz range. T-RECS models two main populations of radio galaxies: Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) and Star-Forming Galaxies (SFGs), and corresponding sub-populations. Our model also includes polarized emission over the full frequency range, which has been characterised statistically for each population using the available information. We model the clustering properties in terms of probability distributions of hosting halo masses, and use lightcones extracted from a high-resolution cosmological simulation to determine the positions of haloes. This limits the sky area for the simulations including clustering to a 25deg2 field of view. We compare luminosity functions, number counts in total intensity and polarization, and clustering properties of our outputs to up-to-date compilations of data and find a very good agreement. We deliver a set of simulated catalogues, as well as the code to produce them, which can be used for simulating observations and predicting results from deep radio surveys with existing and forthcoming radio facilities, such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA).

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arXiv2017

Characterization of polarimetric and total intensity behaviour of a complete sample of PACO radio sources in the radio bands

We present high sensitivity ($\sigma_P \simeq 0.6\,$mJy) polarimetric observations in seven bands, from $2.1$ to $38\,$GHz, of a complete sample of $104$ compact extragalactic radio sources brighter than $200\,$mJy at $20\,$GHz. Polarization measurements in six bands, in the range $5.5-38\,$GHz, for $53$ of these objects were reported by \citet{Galluzzi2017}. We have added new measurements in the same six bands for another 51 sources and measurements at $2.1\,$GHz for the full sample of $104$ sources. Also, the previous measurements at $18$, $24$, $33$ and $38\,$GHz were re-calibrated using the updated model for the flux density absolute calibrator, PKS1934-638, not available for the earlier analysis. The observations, carried out with the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA), achieved a $90\%$ detection rate (at $5\sigma$) in polarization. $89$ of our sources have a counterpart in the $72$ to $231\,$MHz GLEAM survey \citep{HurleyWalker2017}, providing an unparalleled spectral coverage of $2.7$ decades of frequency for these sources. While the total intensity data from $5.5$ to $38\,$GHz could be interpreted in terms of single component emission, a joint analysis of more extended total intensity spectra presented here, and of the polarization spectra, reveals that over $90\%$ of our sources show clear indications of at least two emission components. We interpret this as an evidence of recurrent activity. Our high sensitivity polarimetry has allowed a $5\,\sigma$ detection of the weak circular polarization for $\sim 38\%$ of the dataset, and a deeper estimate of $20\,$GHz polarization source counts than has been possible so far.

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