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Anna van Es

Publications and source records attributed to Anna van Es.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Flexible latent variable models on graphs: Laplace approximated inference for multiview network data

We propose a novel and flexible nonlinear approach for dimensionality reduction of large-scale multiview network data and derive its theory. The (linear) predictor incorporates observed covariates (edge-specific, layer-specific, and global) and Gaussian latent factors. Inference is conducted via the graph Laplace approximated maximum likelihood estimator. Letting $K$ denote the number of network layers and $n_V$ the number of nodes, we derive asymptotic theory under two regimes: (i) $K \to \infty$ with fixed $n_V$, and (ii) double asymptotics $K, n_V \to \infty$, establishing consistency and asymptotic normality for local and global parameters, with distinct convergence rates. In an application to the gravity model for commodity trades, we use a zero-adjusted Gamma distribution with latent factors and observable covariates (e.g.\ distance, tariffs, common language) to capture excess zeros, skewness, and unobserved heterogeneity. Synthetic and real-data exercises show that our approach outperforms the routinely applied Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator with fixed effects. We complement our theoretical and empirical contributions with open-source R/C++ routines and a novel strategy for starting values selection.

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Novel Tau-Informed Initialization for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Copulas with Discrete Margins

We study Gaussian-copula models with discrete margins, with primary emphasis on low-count (Poisson) data. Our goal is exact yet computationally efficient maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in regimes where many observations contain small counts, which imperils both identifiability and numerical stability. We develop three novel Kendall's tau-based approaches for initialization tailored to discrete margins in the low-count regime and embed it within an inference functions for margins (IFM) inspired start. We present three practical initializers (exact, low-intensity approximation, and a transformation-based approach) that substantially reduce the number of ML iterations and improve convergence. For the ML stage, we use an unconstrained reparameterization of the model's parameters using the log and spherical-Cholesky and compute exact rectangle probabilities. Analytical score functions are supplied throughout to stabilize Newton-type optimization. A simulation study across dimensions, dependence levels, and intensity regimes shows that the proposed initialization combined with exact ML achieves lower root-mean-squared error, lower bias and faster computation times than the alternative procedures. The methodology provides a pragmatic path to retain the statistical guarantees of ML (consistency, asymptotic normality, efficiency under correct specification) while remaining tractable for moderate- to high-dimensional discrete data. We conclude with guidance on initializer choice and discuss extensions to alternative correlation structures and different margins.

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