arXiv subjects

Athanasios Vlontzos

Publications and source records attributed to Athanasios Vlontzos.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Incremental Recommendation via Causal Models

Recommendation impressions are a finite resource, hence delivering a recommendation to a user who would discover the content organically yields no incremental value and displaces other recommendations that could. We address this by extending an existing production recommendation model to a causal architecture using holdback data that is already collected as part of routine experimentation infrastructure, requiring no new data collection. A central challenge is that attribution windows differ between treated and holdback observations: treated users are attributed a stream within a short direct-response window, while holdback users are attributed organic streams over a multi-day window. This mismatch makes naive treatment-effect subtraction invalid. We resolve this with a dual-threshold targeting policy that delivers a recommendation only when the probability of a treated stream is high and the probability of organic stream is low. In a production-scale A/B test on millions of Spotify users, this policy reduces recommendation impressions by 7% with no statistically significant reduction in overall recommended content consumption. We further show that joint training with holdback data improves calibration of the treated head relative to the production baseline, and argue this can be taken as evidence that causal models learn more generalisable representations than models trained on observational data alone.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Entangled by Design: Spurious Intra-Variable Signal Routing in Tabular In-Context Learners

Consider a model trained at a single hospital to predict patient recovery, where the measured feature $X$ bundles the patient's true health signal ($C$) with a systematic artefact from that hospital's equipment ($S$). Within that hospital, the artefact correlates with outcomes through unmeasured confounders such as patient demographics; an in-context learner rationally routes predictions through $S$, not $C$, and fails silently when deployed at a new hospital with different equipment. We formalise this as \emph{spurious routing in composite representations}: when a feature $X = [C;\,\alpha S;\,\eta]$ encodes a causal signal $C$ and a spurious signal $S$ in distinct subspaces, the ICL cannot determine which drives predictions. We prove that under ridge ICL, a linear in-context learner, this routing is unavoidable regardless of context size; TabPFN, a state-of-the-art pretrained tabular ICL model, shows qualitatively consistent behaviour empirically. We derive a closed-form characterisation, $\mathrm{CSR} \propto \rho_S/\rho_C$, confirmed at $r = 0.997$ for linear ICL and $r = 0.979$ for TabPFN. Contrary to intuition, larger context sharpens commitment to the dominant in-context signal, amplifying spurious routing by up to $1.74\times$; in the high-spurious corner, more expressive models show greater vulnerability empirically ($+2.22$ CSR gap at high entanglement). We introduce two lightweight mitigations: environment-stratified context construction and S-swap augmentation, that require only weak environment labels and no knowledge of the causal partition. S-swap reduces spurious routing by $74\%$ for linear ICL and $98.8\%$ for TabPFN, with TabPFN's causal sensitivity increasing $8.4\times$ simultaneously: the model does not become agnostic, it reroutes through the causal signal.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

From Training to Deployment: Post-Hoc Causal Feature Identification via Sensitivity Ratios

Given a model that is already trained, which features does it rely on causally versus spuriously? Existing methods require access to the training procedure and cannot answer this post-hoc. We introduce the \textbf{Normalised Sensitivity Ratio~(NSR)}, a post-hoc, model-agnostic diagnostic for this question under a structured-shift regime: environments differ primarily in the mean of spurious features while the causal mechanism and causal marginals remain stable, as in multi-site clinical data or multi-batch genomics. Within this regime, causal features induce constant model sensitivity across environments while spurious features track shift. NSR formalises this as the squared coefficient of variation of per-environment sensitivity. Under a linear structural causal model (SCM) with $K\ge3$ non-degenerate environments, NSR achieves exact identification (Theorem~1). We fully characterise failure: weak shifts ($O(\varepsilon^4)$ collapse), degenerate geometry, and proxy attenuation ($O((1-\alpha)^4)$), giving practitioners quantitative criteria for assessing whether the regime holds. Finite-sample rates are $O_p(n^{-1})$ under the null and $O_p(n^{-1/2})$ under the alternative. Experiments confirm all theoretical predictions on synthetic data (area under the ROC curve [AUROC] $= 1.000$ under conditions satisfying the regime), show consistent rankings across five model families (Kendall $\tau\ge0.529$), and recover six of eight causal features on bike-sharing data (Precision@7 $= 0.75$) without modifying any trained model.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Causally Steered Diffusion for Automated Video Counterfactual Generation

Adapting text-to-image (T2I) latent diffusion models (LDMs) to video editing has shown strong visual fidelity and controllability, but challenges remain in maintaining causal relationships inherent to the video data generating process. Edits affecting causally dependent attributes often generate unrealistic or misleading outcomes if these relationships are ignored. In this work, we introduce a causally faithful framework for counterfactual video generation, formulated as an Out-of-Distribution (OOD) prediction problem. We embed prior causal knowledge by encoding the relationships specified in a causal graph into text prompts and guide the generation process by optimizing these prompts using a vision-language model (VLM)-based textual loss. This loss encourages the latent space of the LDMs to capture OOD variations in the form of counterfactuals, effectively steering generation toward causally meaningful alternatives. The proposed framework, dubbed CSVC, is agnostic to the underlying video editing system and does not require access to its internal mechanisms or fine-tuning. We evaluate our approach using standard video quality metrics and counterfactual-specific criteria, such as causal effectiveness and minimality. Experimental results show that CSVC generates causally faithful video counterfactuals within the LDM distribution via prompt-based causal steering, achieving state-of-the-art causal effectiveness without compromising temporal consistency or visual quality on real-world facial videos. Due to its compatibility with any black-box video editing system, our framework has significant potential to generate realistic 'what if' hypothetical video scenarios in diverse areas such as digital media and healthcare.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

The Hardness of Validating Observational Studies with Experimental Data

Observational data is often readily available in large quantities, but can lead to biased causal effect estimates due to the presence of unobserved confounding. Recent works attempt to remove this bias by supplementing observational data with experimental data, which, when available, is typically on a smaller scale due to the time and cost involved in running a randomised controlled trial. In this work, we prove a theorem that places fundamental limits on this ``best of both worlds'' approach. Using the framework of impossible inference, we show that although it is possible to use experimental data to \emph{falsify} causal effect estimates from observational data, in general it is not possible to \emph{validate} such estimates. Our theorem proves that while experimental data can be used to detect bias in observational studies, without additional assumptions on the smoothness of the correction function, it can not be used to remove it. We provide a practical example of such an assumption, developing a novel Gaussian Process based approach to construct intervals which contain the true treatment effect with high probability, both inside and outside of the support of the experimental data. We demonstrate our methodology on both simulated and semi-synthetic datasets and make the \href{https://github.com/Jakefawkes/Obs_and_exp_data}{code available}.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Contrastive representations of high-dimensional, structured treatments

Estimating causal effects is vital for decision making. In standard causal effect estimation, treatments are usually binary- or continuous-valued. However, in many important real-world settings, treatments can be structured, high-dimensional objects, such as text, video, or audio. This provides a challenge to traditional causal effect estimation. While leveraging the shared structure across different treatments can help generalize to unseen treatments at test time, we show in this paper that using such structure blindly can lead to biased causal effect estimation. We address this challenge by devising a novel contrastive approach to learn a representation of the high-dimensional treatments, and prove that it identifies underlying causal factors and discards non-causally relevant factors. We prove that this treatment representation leads to unbiased estimates of the causal effect, and empirically validate and benchmark our results on synthetic and real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Benchmarking Counterfactual Image Generation

Generative AI has revolutionised visual content editing, empowering users to effortlessly modify images and videos. However, not all edits are equal. To perform realistic edits in domains such as natural image or medical imaging, modifications must respect causal relationships inherent to the data generation process. Such image editing falls into the counterfactual image generation regime. Evaluating counterfactual image generation is substantially complex: not only it lacks observable ground truths, but also requires adherence to causal constraints. Although several counterfactual image generation methods and evaluation metrics exist, a comprehensive comparison within a unified setting is lacking. We present a comparison framework to thoroughly benchmark counterfactual image generation methods. We integrate all models that have been used for the task at hand and expand them to novel datasets and causal graphs, demonstrating the superiority of Hierarchical VAEs across most datasets and metrics. Our framework is implemented in a user-friendly Python package that can be extended to incorporate additional SCMs, causal methods, generative models, and datasets for the community to build on. Code: https://github.com/gulnazaki/counterfactual-benchmark.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Non-parametric identifiability and sensitivity analysis of synthetic control models

Quantifying cause and effect relationships is an important problem in many domains. The gold standard solution is to conduct a randomised controlled trial. However, in many situations such trials cannot be performed. In the absence of such trials, many methods have been devised to quantify the causal impact of an intervention from observational data given certain assumptions. One widely used method are synthetic control models. While identifiability of the causal estimand in such models has been obtained from a range of assumptions, it is widely and implicitly assumed that the underlying assumptions are satisfied for all time periods both pre- and post-intervention. This is a strong assumption, as synthetic control models can only be learned in pre-intervention period. In this paper we address this challenge, and prove identifiability can be obtained without the need for this assumption, by showing it follows from the principle of invariant causal mechanisms. Moreover, for the first time, we formulate and study synthetic control models in Pearl's structural causal model framework. Importantly, we provide a general framework for sensitivity analysis of synthetic control causal inference to violations of the assumptions underlying non-parametric identifiability. We end by providing an empirical demonstration of our sensitivity analysis framework on simulated and real data in the widely-used linear synthetic control framework.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Self-Supervised 3D Human Pose Estimation in Static Video Via Neural Rendering

Inferring 3D human pose from 2D images is a challenging and long-standing problem in the field of computer vision with many applications including motion capture, virtual reality, surveillance or gait analysis for sports and medicine. We present preliminary results for a method to estimate 3D pose from 2D video containing a single person and a static background without the need for any manual landmark annotations. We achieve this by formulating a simple yet effective self-supervision task: our model is required to reconstruct a random frame of a video given a frame from another timepoint and a rendered image of a transformed human shape template. Crucially for optimisation, our ray casting based rendering pipeline is fully differentiable, enabling end to end training solely based on the reconstruction task.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Adnexal Mass Segmentation with Ultrasound Data Synthesis

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological malignancy. The disease is most commonly asymptomatic at its early stages and its diagnosis relies on expert evaluation of transvaginal ultrasound images. Ultrasound is the first-line imaging modality for characterising adnexal masses, it requires significant expertise and its analysis is subjective and labour-intensive, therefore open to error. Hence, automating processes to facilitate and standardise the evaluation of scans is desired in clinical practice. Using supervised learning, we have demonstrated that segmentation of adnexal masses is possible, however, prevalence and label imbalance restricts the performance on under-represented classes. To mitigate this we apply a novel pathology-specific data synthesiser. We create synthetic medical images with their corresponding ground truth segmentations by using Poisson image editing to integrate less common masses into other samples. Our approach achieves the best performance across all classes, including an improvement of up to 8% when compared with nnU-Net baseline approaches.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2022

nnOOD: A Framework for Benchmarking Self-supervised Anomaly Localisation Methods

The wide variety of in-distribution and out-of-distribution data in medical imaging makes universal anomaly detection a challenging task. Recently a number of self-supervised methods have been developed that train end-to-end models on healthy data augmented with synthetic anomalies. However, it is difficult to compare these methods as it is not clear whether gains in performance are from the task itself or the training pipeline around it. It is also difficult to assess whether a task generalises well for universal anomaly detection, as they are often only tested on a limited range of anomalies. To assist with this we have developed nnOOD, a framework that adapts nnU-Net to allow for comparison of self-supervised anomaly localisation methods. By isolating the synthetic, self-supervised task from the rest of the training process we perform a more faithful comparison of the tasks, whilst also making the workflow for evaluating over a given dataset quick and easy. Using this we have implemented the current state-of-the-art tasks and evaluated them on a challenging X-ray dataset.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

A Review of Causality for Learning Algorithms in Medical Image Analysis

Medical image analysis is a vibrant research area that offers doctors and medical practitioners invaluable insight and the ability to accurately diagnose and monitor disease. Machine learning provides an additional boost for this area. However, machine learning for medical image analysis is particularly vulnerable to natural biases like domain shifts that affect algorithmic performance and robustness. In this paper we analyze machine learning for medical image analysis within the framework of Technology Readiness Levels and review how causal analysis methods can fill a gap when creating robust and adaptable medical image analysis algorithms. We review methods using causality in medical imaging AI/ML and find that causal analysis has the potential to mitigate critical problems for clinical translation but that uptake and clinical downstream research has been limited so far.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Is More Data All You Need? A Causal Exploration

Curating a large scale medical imaging dataset for machine learning applications is both time consuming and expensive. Balancing the workload between model development, data collection and annotations is difficult for machine learning practitioners, especially under time constraints. Causal analysis is often used in medicine and economics to gain insights about the effects of actions and policies. In this paper we explore the effect of dataset interventions on the output of image classification models. Through a causal approach we investigate the effects of the quantity and type of data we need to incorporate in a dataset to achieve better performance for specific subtasks. The main goal of this paper is to highlight the potential of causal analysis as a tool for resource optimization for developing medical imaging ML applications. We explore this concept with a synthetic dataset and an exemplary use-case for Diabetic Retinopathy image analysis.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

D'ARTAGNAN: Counterfactual Video Generation

Causally-enabled machine learning frameworks could help clinicians to identify the best course of treatments by answering counterfactual questions. We explore this path for the case of echocardiograms by looking into the variation of the Left Ventricle Ejection Fraction, the most essential clinical metric gained from these examinations. We combine deep neural networks, twin causal networks and generative adversarial methods for the first time to build D'ARTAGNAN (Deep ARtificial Twin-Architecture GeNerAtive Networks), a novel causal generative model. We demonstrate the soundness of our approach on a synthetic dataset before applying it to cardiac ultrasound videos to answer the question: "What would this echocardiogram look like if the patient had a different ejection fraction?". To do so, we generate new ultrasound videos, retaining the video style and anatomy of the original patient, while modifying the Ejection Fraction conditioned on a given input. We achieve an SSIM score of 0.79 and an R2 score of 0.51 on the counterfactual videos. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/HReynaud/dartagnan.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Estimating Categorical Counterfactuals via Deep Twin Networks

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot be uniquely determined from observations and interventions alone. This raises the question of how to choose the causal mechanisms so that resulting counterfactual inference is trustworthy in a given domain. This question has been addressed in causal models with binary variables, but the case of categorical variables remains unanswered. We address this challenge by introducing for causal models with categorical variables the notion of counterfactual ordering, a principle that posits desirable properties causal mechanisms should posses, and prove that it is equivalent to specific functional constraints on the causal mechanisms. To learn causal mechanisms satisfying these constraints, and perform counterfactual inference with them, we introduce deep twin networks. These are deep neural networks that, when trained, are capable of twin network counterfactual inference -- an alternative to the abduction, action, & prediction method. We empirically test our approach on diverse real-world and semi-synthetic data from medicine, epidemiology, and finance, reporting accurate estimation of counterfactual probabilities while demonstrating the issues that arise with counterfactual reasoning when counterfactual ordering is not enforced.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Detecting Hypo-plastic Left Heart Syndrome in Fetal Ultrasound via Disease-specific Atlas Maps

Fetal ultrasound screening during pregnancy plays a vital role in the early detection of fetal malformations which have potential long-term health impacts. The level of skill required to diagnose such malformations from live ultrasound during examination is high and resources for screening are often limited. We present an interpretable, atlas-learning segmentation method for automatic diagnosis of Hypo-plastic Left Heart Syndrome (HLHS) from a single `4 Chamber Heart' view image. We propose to extend the recently introduced Image-and-Spatial Transformer Networks (Atlas-ISTN) into a framework that enables sensitising atlas generation to disease. In this framework we can jointly learn image segmentation, registration, atlas construction and disease prediction while providing a maximum level of clinical interpretability compared to direct image classification methods. As a result our segmentation allows diagnoses competitive with expert-derived manual diagnosis and yields an AUC-ROC of 0.978 (1043 cases for training, 260 for validation and 325 for testing).

eess.IV↗

arXiv2021

Ultrasound Video Transformers for Cardiac Ejection Fraction Estimation

Cardiac ultrasound imaging is used to diagnose various heart diseases. Common analysis pipelines involve manual processing of the video frames by expert clinicians. This suffers from intra- and inter-observer variability. We propose a novel approach to ultrasound video analysis using a transformer architecture based on a Residual Auto-Encoder Network and a BERT model adapted for token classification. This enables videos of any length to be processed. We apply our model to the task of End-Systolic (ES) and End-Diastolic (ED) frame detection and the automated computation of the left ventricular ejection fraction. We achieve an average frame distance of 3.36 frames for the ES and 7.17 frames for the ED on videos of arbitrary length. Our end-to-end learnable approach can estimate the ejection fraction with a MAE of 5.95 and $R^2$ of 0.52 in 0.15s per video, showing that segmentation is not the only way to predict ejection fraction. Code and models are available at https://github.com/HReynaud/UVT.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Video Summarization through Reinforcement Learning with a 3D Spatio-Temporal U-Net

Intelligent video summarization algorithms allow to quickly convey the most relevant information in videos through the identification of the most essential and explanatory content while removing redundant video frames. In this paper, we introduce the 3DST-UNet-RL framework for video summarization. A 3D spatio-temporal U-Net is used to efficiently encode spatio-temporal information of the input videos for downstream reinforcement learning (RL). An RL agent learns from spatio-temporal latent scores and predicts actions for keeping or rejecting a video frame in a video summary. We investigate if real/inflated 3D spatio-temporal CNN features are better suited to learn representations from videos than commonly used 2D image features. Our framework can operate in both, a fully unsupervised mode and a supervised training mode. We analyse the impact of prescribed summary lengths and show experimental evidence for the effectiveness of 3DST-UNet-RL on two commonly used general video summarization benchmarks. We also applied our method on a medical video summarization task. The proposed video summarization method has the potential to save storage costs of ultrasound screening videos as well as to increase efficiency when browsing patient video data during retrospective analysis or audit without loosing essential information

cs.CV↗