arXiv subjects

Chun-Sung Huang

Publications and source records attributed to Chun-Sung Huang.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Information Games: Strategic Crowding and Firm Repositioning in Language-Model Space

Firms follow changing economic opportunities, but rivalry changes their response. We develop ESCAPE, a rational-share game of distribution-valued positioning with heterogeneous capability costs, establish a unique equilibrium, and derive an exact reallocation restriction separating opportunity and crowding contributions. Competition need not push firms apart: rational firms can enter increasingly crowded regions, because the full reallocation gain can be positive even when its crowding component is negative. Rivalry instead changes how differently firms respond to the same opportunity shift. In the benchmark many-firm economy, the relative-response component accounts for 90.5% of the weighted squared composition-response contrast between strategic and independent firms; it is numerically zero under identical capabilities. The contrast remains distinguishable under corpus-scale measurement. Corporate news distributions document persistent but changing peer structure: optimized peer reconstructions retain 86.5% of their aggregate validation advantage one year later even as absolute distance to both frozen reconstructions increases. Peer structure is persistent without being a fixed destination, so current similarity can remain informative without fixing firms' future relative positions.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

Wasserstein-Barycentric Interaction Fields for Spatial Factor Models: Evidence from Language-Model Representations

Spatial asset-pricing models take the structure of inter-firm interaction as given. We infer that structure from firms' information environments using language-model representations. Each firm is represented as a distribution of news-article embeddings, and a target-anchored Wasserstein barycentric reconstruction selects, for every firm, the weighted combination of other firms whose information footprints jointly reconstruct its own. The resulting directed peer field enters a quadratic exposure-adjustment model in which the spatial coefficient indexes alignment with information peers relative to stand-alone exposure. Using fields built from 2018-2022 news and frozen before 2023-2026 returns, we find that the constructed field organizes cross-sectional return dependence beyond the Fama-French five factors and momentum and raises the held-out mean Gaussian quasi-log score relative to a matched factor-only model. Because factor betas are unchanged, the gain lies in residual covariance. The field outperforms pairwise distance weighting and equal weighting of the same peers, and remains incrementally informative beside persistent news co-mentions under the primary factor-conditioned specification. Linear and quadratic transport generate nearly identical peer-return signals and equivalent held-out predictive performance. The barycentric-proximity ordering persists across alternative embedding models, and a pre-period encoder preserves the held-out advantage under the primary specification. Language-model representations thus serve as a measurement instrument for latent inter-firm information structure in capital markets.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2026

Systematic Covariance Envelopes from Wasserstein Geometry: Evidence from Language-Model Representations

Firm characteristics are commonly represented as fixed vectors, even though evidence about firms' operations arrives as heterogeneous collections of articles reports. We study how distances between distributions of firm characteristics restrict systematic covariance. For given latent exposure laws, quadratic Wasserstein geometry yields sharp covariance endpoints over admissible couplings. Under a common randomized bi-Lipschitz characteristic-to-exposure map, bounded risk-coordinate slack, and a maintained return-covariance bridge, characteristic-side distance yields a conditional interval for the covariance ceiling. Greater separation then leaves less scope for aligned systematic exposures when these assumptions are tight, while a non-negative transport excess term records the gap between realized and maximum-covariance arrangements. The resulting envelope is scenario analysis rather than an expected-return, no-arbitrage, or identified structural model. Empirically, we proxy characteristic distributions with encoder-only language-model embeddings of financial news articles, disclosures, and analyst reports for Nasdaq firms over 2018-2022. In a dyadic regression with symmetric firm effects, greater pairwise article-embedding W2 distance is associated with weaker return co-movement: the coefficient is 1.920, with 95% interval [1.412, 2.468]. The estimate retains the same sign when returns are measured in a later window, although the feature construction is not point-in-time and the evidence remains reduced form.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

Portfolio Risk Bounds without Cross-Asset Return Covariances: Distributional Fields from Language-Model Representations

Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to systematic exposures and from exposures to returns, multi-firm Wasserstein-2 dispersion yields a sharp upper bound on systematic portfolio variance and a corresponding bound for standardized returns. A weighted pairwise relaxation produces an objective that is convex under a checkable condition and requires marginal volatility scales but no cross-asset return covariances. With zero firm-specific slack, the common-map scale changes the certified variance reduction but not the normalized allocation, which depends only on observed information geometry. In a 52-firm panel from 2018-2022, an allocation constructed from Qwen3-Embedding-8B news representations lies between the 0.69th and 1.33rd in-sample variance percentiles across four prespecified capped portfolio populations; equal risk weighting lies between the 21.1st and 28.6th percentiles. The lower in-sample variance ranking relative to equal risk also appears across the reported frozen language-model representations. The framework therefore distribution-valued firm information into a coherent risk bound and an implementable allocation rule constructed without cross-asset return covariances.

q-fin.ST↗