arXiv subjects

Claudio Sole

Publications and source records attributed to Claudio Sole.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

$t_0$: A Time-Series Foundation Model for Forecasting with Context

We present $t_0$, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: $\texttt{t0-alpha}$ and $\texttt{t0-beta}$, respectively 102M and 256M parameters. Both condition their forecasts on target history, past covariates, and known-future covariates, without task-specific retraining. Their transformer layers alternate attention along time and across variates. They produce probabilistic forecasts through quantile predictions. Pretraining combines curated public data with synthetic generator families constructed to contain covariate-to-target dependencies. On GIFT-Eval, $\texttt{t0-alpha}$ reaches an aggregate CRPS of 0.4941, and $\texttt{t0-beta}$ a CRPS of 0.4738 and a MASE of 0.6865, third on both and within 4.0% of the best zero-shot TSFM. On fev-bench they score 42.2 and 46.7 in skill, the latter third again and 2.0 points behind the leader. We analyze $\texttt{t0-alpha}$ in depth. Known-future covariates raise its skill by 6.3 percentage points across 30 tasks. The report also examines its calibration, its rollout strategy on long horizons, and its robustness to missing data. On the Victoria electricity-demand benchmark, $\texttt{t0-beta}$ is among the most accurate models with a context of nearly a year. In an independent Macrocosm evaluation of hourly ERCOT prices over 29 months, both cut the MAE of the lagged-price baseline by 38%.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

An Exact Method for (Constrained) Assortment Optimization Problems with Product Costs

We study the problem of optimizing assortment decisions in the presence of product-specific costs when customers choose according to a multinomial logit model. This problem is NP-hard and approximate solutions methods have been proposed in the literature to obtain both lower and upper bounds in a tractable manner. We propose the first exact solution method for this problem and show that provably optimal assortments of instances with up to one thousand products can be found, on average, in about two tenths of a second. In particular, we propose a bounding procedure based on the approximation method of Feldman and Topaloglu (2015a) to provide tight lower and upper bounds at a fraction of their computing times. We show how these bounds can be used to effectively identify an optimal assortment. We also describe how to adapt our approach to handle cardinality or space/resource capacity constraints on the assortment as well as assortment optimization under a mixed-multinomial logit model. In both cases, our solution method provides significant computational boosts compared to exact methods from the literature.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

On the estimation of discrete choice models to capture irrational customer behaviors

The Random Utility Maximization model is by far the most adopted framework to estimate consumer choice behavior. However, behavioral economics has provided strong empirical evidence of irrational choice behavior, such as halo effects, that are incompatible with this framework. Models belonging to the Random Utility Maximization family may therefore not accurately capture such irrational behavior. Hence, more general choice models, overcoming such limitations, have been proposed. However, the flexibility of such models comes at the price of increased risk of overfitting. As such, estimating such models remains a challenge. In this work, we propose an estimation method for the recently proposed Generalized Stochastic Preference choice model, which subsumes the family of Random Utility Maximization models and is capable of capturing halo effects. Specifically, we show how to use partially-ranked preferences to efficiently model rational and irrational customer types from transaction data. Our estimation procedure is based on column generation, where relevant customer types are efficiently extracted by expanding a tree-like data structure containing the customer behaviors. Further, we propose a new dominance rule among customer types whose effect is to prioritize low orders of interactions among products. An extensive set of experiments assesses the predictive accuracy of the proposed approach. Our results show that accounting for irrational preferences can boost predictive accuracy by 12.5% on average, when tested on a real-world dataset from a large chain of grocery and drug stores.

econ.EM↗