arXiv subjects

Daniel Waxman

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Waxman.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Simulation-Free Learning of Population Dynamics with Wasserstein Lagrangian Residuals

The dynamics of cells, organisms, and fluids are often modeled as probability distributions evolving over time. Reconstructing and extrapolating this evolution from unpaired snapshots requires assumptions about the underlying process. Wasserstein gradient flows are a common choice, but they cannot describe conservative or periodic dynamics. Lagrangian mechanics in Wasserstein space covers both, but existing methods for learning it are simulation-based: they run a numerical solver at every training step, which makes training expensive. We propose Double-Stitch, a simulation-free method that learns these mechanics by penalizing the residual of the equation of motion along a learned population path. We derive this equation from a Clebsch variational principle that does not require gradient velocities, and show that the residual vanishes exactly when the equation holds. We test Double-Stitch on synthetic, single-cell and ocean vortex datasets and find that it matches or outperforms gradient-flow methods and simulation-based WLM on most tasks, while training $4$-$14$ times faster than WLM. We provide a JAX implementation of Double-Stitch at https://github.com/BasisResearch/stitching.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Slaying the Hydra: Interaction-Aware Circuit Discovery in Language Models

Localizing behavior to individual components of a language model is a central goal of mechanistic interpretability. However, scoring components one at a time misses context-dependent effects: a primary component can inhibit the activation of a backup, leading to issues with ranking components. Actual causality studies the structure of such interactions via witnesses: variables that provide contextual information to resolve interaction terms. However, estimation with witnesses typically requires combinatorial enumeration and is infeasible in practice. We introduce the witness-integrated set effect (WISE), a family of causal estimands that build on the witness mechanism while taking expectations over sets of causes and witnesses to remain computationally feasible. Building on this approach, we introduce JuntaLearner, a gradient-based circuit discovery method that learns to rank components by their causal impact across varying-sized sets of components and witnesses. Alongside faithfulness metrics, we introduce measures of necessity and task specificity, and the circuit recognition score (CRS) to summarize each metric across circuit sizes while emphasizing effects achieved by small circuits. Across tasks and models of increasing size, JuntaLearner achieves higher mean CRS compared to attribution baselines on all metrics. Since its cost does not grow with the number of candidate components, JuntaLearner scales to large models while accounting for set-level interactions and avoiding first-order approximations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Wiener Space Cubature for Nonlinear Gaussian Filtering

Continuous-discrete filtering is a classical problem in signal processing and control theory, whereby the state driving a stochastic differential equation (SDE) must be inferred from noisy, partial discrete-time observations. Corresponding filtering algorithms are often formed as discrete-time methods and applied to a discretization of the SDE, an approach limited by the incurred discretization error, or model a type of Gaussian moment ordinary differential equation (ODE) flow, which is approximate for nonlinear dynamics. We introduce a new method, the Wiener-space cubature Kalman filter (WSC-KF), for Gaussian filtering in this continuous-discrete setting. The WSC-KF combines spatial sigma-point representations with Wiener space cubature integration, effectively approximating iterated integral terms of the driving Brownian motion to higher-order than standard discretization (e.g., Ito-Taylor expansions), or approximate moment-ODE flows (e.g., as in the unscented Kalman filter). Theoretically, we characterize the path-law approximation degree of WSC-KF through a tunable model order parameter. We prove that, depending on the model order chosen, WSC-KF provides weak order bounds comparable to or dominating that of a cubature Kalman filter using a first-order Ito predict step. Numerically, we confirm that rate on a globally Lipschitz Levy-area diffusion. Degree-5 Wiener cubature matches mixed iterated integrals that existing continuous-discrete Kalman predictors omit, while remaining efficiently computable; this is the mechanism enabling higher-order weak path-law approximation.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

Explaining why a specific outcome occurred, and which inputs deserve the blame or credit, is central to philosophical, scientific, and policy analysis. Existing tools split into two camps. The theory of actual causality (AC) gives principled verdicts, but only for toy-sized models, because computing them requires enumerating counterfactual scenarios. Scalable attribution methods like SHAP (or even causal SHAP) at least partially ignore the causal structure that generated the data, and can give answers that conflict with a careful causal analysis. We close this gap with Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI). PCI builds on actual causality and on Pearl's notions of probability of necessity and sufficiency, but recasts the question of explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model that is easily approximated via Monte Carlo. By specifying a distribution over "candidate explanations," a distribution over counterfactual values, and a scoring function, PCI provides tractable, causally grounded, graded explanations, generalizing AC and Pearl's probability of causation as degenerate cases. We evaluate PCI in synthetic and real-world examples, spanning consistency checks with AC, scaling experiments, complex continuous-valued dynamical systems, and a real-world deployed causal machine learning model trained on millions of datapoints.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Wasserstein Residuals: Learning Gradient Flows from Population Dynamics

Reconstructing population dynamics is a central problem in the physical and data sciences. Often, the dynamics are modeled as a Wasserstein gradient flow (WGF): a curve of distributions driven by an energy functional. Though there are multiple mathematical characterizations of a WGF, the dominant algorithmic approach relies on the Jordan--Kinderlehrer--Otto (JKO) scheme. JKO-based methods are inflexible to time discretisation and require solving costly optimal transport problems. We take a residual approach, enforcing the continuity equations via a non-negative loss function whose minimum is the WGF. Combined with a data-fitting divergence, this gives a single global objective. This perspective unifies several existing methods and leads to a new particle-based method, stitching, that is simulation-free and robust to large gaps between observations. We demonstrate that the stitching method achieves state-of-the-art performance across trajectory inference benchmarks. For code see github.com/BasisResearch/wasserstein-residuals.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Dynestyx: A Probabilistic Programming Library for Dynamical Systems

State-space models (SSMs) are the standard formalism for Bayesian treatment of dynamical systems, with natural applications in statistics, signal processing, and machine learning. Despite their importance in both theory and application, dynamical systems have proven difficult to incorporate in modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), making state-of-the-art methods less accessible to practitioners and introducing friction in following the "Bayesian workflow." We introduce dynestyx, a probabilistic programming library with first-class support for SSMs, including state-of-the-art methods in the estimation of both states and parameters. Through a single, unified interface, users may specify arbitrary priors for discrete-time or continuous-time dynamical systems, perform inference over mixed-effect data, and make state and parameter estimates with principled uncertainty quantification.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Sequential Inference for Gaussian Processes: A Signal Processing Perspective

The proliferation of capable and efficient machine learning (ML) models marks one of the strongest methodological shifts in signal processing (SP) in its nearly 100-year history. ML models support the development of SP systems that represent complex, nonlinear relationships with high predictive accuracy. Adapting these models often requires sequential inference, which differs both theoretically and methodologically from the usual paradigm of ML, where data are often assumed independent and identically distributed. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a flexible yet principled framework for modeling random functions, and they have become increasingly relevant to SP as statistical and ML methods assume a more prominent role. We provide a self-contained, tutorial-style overview of GPs, with a particular focus on recent methodological advances in sequential, incremental, or streaming inference. We introduce these techniques from a signal-processing perspective while bridging them to recent advances in ML. Many of the developments we survey have direct applications to state-space modeling, sequential regression and forecasting, anomaly detection in time series, sequential Bayesian optimization, adaptive and active sensing, and sequential detection and decision-making. By organizing these advances from a signal-processing perspective, we intend to equip practitioners with practical tools and a coherent roadmap for deploying sequential GP models in real-world systems.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Bayesian Ensembling: Insights from Online Optimization and Empirical Bayes

We revisit the classical problem of Bayesian ensembles and address the challenge of learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in an online, continual learning setting. To this end, we reinterpret existing approaches such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and Bayesian stacking through a novel empirical Bayes lens, shedding new light on the limitations and pathologies of BMA. Further motivated by insights from online optimization, we propose Online Bayesian Stacking (OBS), a method that optimizes the log-score over predictive distributions to adaptively combine Bayesian models. A key contribution of our work is establishing a novel connection between OBS and portfolio selection, bridging Bayesian ensemble learning with a rich, well-studied theoretical framework that offers efficient algorithms and extensive regret analysis. We further clarify the relationship between OBS and online BMA, showing that they optimize related but distinct cost functions. Through theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation, we identify scenarios where OBS outperforms online BMA and provide principled methods and guidance on when practitioners should prefer one approach over the other.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Designing an Optimal Sensor Network via Minimizing Information Loss

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that "minimize information loss" from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Robust, Online, and Adaptive Decentralized Gaussian Processes

Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible, uncertainty-aware framework for modeling complex signals, but scale cubically with data, assume static targets, and are brittle to outliers, limiting their applicability in large-scale problems with dynamic and noisy environments. Recent work introduced decentralized random Fourier feature Gaussian processes (DRFGP), an online and distributed algorithm that casts GPs in an information-filter form, enabling exact sequential inference and fully distributed computation without reliance on a fusion center. In this paper, we extend DRFGP along two key directions: first, by introducing a robust-filtering update that downweights the impact of atypical observations; and second, by incorporating a dynamic adaptation mechanism that adapts to time-varying functions. The resulting algorithm retains the recursive information-filter structure while enhancing stability and accuracy. We demonstrate its effectiveness on a large-scale Earth system application, underscoring its potential for in-situ modeling.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Decentralized Online Ensembles of Gaussian Processes for Multi-Agent Systems

Flexible and scalable decentralized learning solutions are fundamentally important in the application of multi-agent systems. While several recent approaches introduce (ensembles of) kernel machines in the distributed setting, Bayesian solutions are much more limited. We introduce a fully decentralized, asymptotically exact solution to computing the random feature approximation of Gaussian processes. We further address the choice of hyperparameters by introducing an ensembling scheme for Bayesian multiple kernel learning based on online Bayesian model averaging. The resulting algorithm is tested against Bayesian and frequentist methods on simulated and real-world datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Tangent Space Causal Inference: Leveraging Vector Fields for Causal Discovery in Dynamical Systems

Causal discovery with time series data remains a challenging yet increasingly important task across many scientific domains. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) and related methods have been proposed to study time series that are generated by dynamical systems, where traditional approaches like Granger causality are unreliable. However, CCM often yields inaccurate results depending upon the quality of the data. We propose the Tangent Space Causal Inference (TSCI) method for detecting causalities in dynamical systems. TSCI works by considering vector fields as explicit representations of the systems' dynamics and checks for the degree of synchronization between the learned vector fields. The TSCI approach is model-agnostic and can be used as a drop-in replacement for CCM and its generalizations. We first present a basic version of the TSCI algorithm, which is shown to be more effective than the basic CCM algorithm with very little additional computation. We additionally present augmented versions of TSCI that leverage the expressive power of latent variable models and deep learning. We validate our theory on standard systems, and we demonstrate improved causal inference performance across a number of benchmark tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A Gaussian Process-based Streaming Algorithm for Prediction of Time Series With Regimes and Outliers

Online prediction of time series under regime switching is a widely studied problem in the literature, with many celebrated approaches. Using the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes, the recently proposed INTEL algorithm provides a product of experts approach to online prediction of time series under possible regime switching, including the special case of outliers. This is achieved by adaptively combining several candidate models, each reporting their predictive distribution at time $t$. However, the INTEL algorithm uses a finite context window approximation to the predictive distribution, the computation of which scales cubically with the maximum lag, or otherwise scales quartically with exact predictive distributions. We introduce LINTEL, which uses the exact filtering distribution at time $t$ with constant-time updates, making the time complexity of the streaming algorithm optimal. We additionally note that the weighting mechanism of INTEL is better suited to a mixture of experts approach, and propose a fusion policy based on arithmetic averaging for LINTEL. We show experimentally that our proposed approach is over five times faster than INTEL under reasonable settings with better quality predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Dynamic Online Ensembles of Basis Expansions

Practical Bayesian learning often requires (1) online inference, (2) dynamic models, and (3) ensembling over multiple different models. Recent advances have shown how to use random feature approximations to achieve scalable, online ensembling of Gaussian processes with desirable theoretical properties and fruitful applications. One key to these methods' success is the inclusion of a random walk on the model parameters, which makes models dynamic. We show that these methods can be generalized easily to any basis expansion model and that using alternative basis expansions, such as Hilbert space Gaussian processes, often results in better performance. To simplify the process of choosing a specific basis expansion, our method's generality also allows the ensembling of several entirely different models, for example, a Gaussian process and polynomial regression. Finally, we propose a novel method to ensemble static and dynamic models together.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fusion of Gaussian Processes Predictions with Monte Carlo Sampling

In science and engineering, we often work with models designed for accurate prediction of variables of interest. Recognizing that these models are approximations of reality, it becomes desirable to apply multiple models to the same data and integrate their outcomes. In this paper, we operate within the Bayesian paradigm, relying on Gaussian processes as our models. These models generate predictive probability density functions (pdfs), and the objective is to integrate them systematically, employing both linear and log-linear pooling. We introduce novel approaches for log-linear pooling, determining input-dependent weights for the predictive pdfs of the Gaussian processes. The aggregation of the pdfs is realized through Monte Carlo sampling, drawing samples of weights from their posterior. The performance of these methods, as well as those based on linear pooling, is demonstrated using a synthetic dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Dagma-DCE: Interpretable, Non-Parametric Differentiable Causal Discovery

We introduce Dagma-DCE, an interpretable and model-agnostic scheme for differentiable causal discovery. Current non- or over-parametric methods in differentiable causal discovery use opaque proxies of ``independence'' to justify the inclusion or exclusion of a causal relationship. We show theoretically and empirically that these proxies may be arbitrarily different than the actual causal strength. Juxtaposed to existing differentiable causal discovery algorithms, \textsc{Dagma-DCE} uses an interpretable measure of causal strength to define weighted adjacency matrices. In a number of simulated datasets, we show our method achieves state-of-the-art level performance. We additionally show that \textsc{Dagma-DCE} allows for principled thresholding and sparsity penalties by domain-experts. The code for our method is available open-source at https://github.com/DanWaxman/DAGMA-DCE, and can easily be adapted to arbitrary differentiable models.

cs.LG↗