Danil Fedchenko | Search arXiv

arXiv2026

Summary Indices in Treatment Effect Estimation

This paper studies the practice of combining multiple outcomes into a summary index to estimate a causal effect. For common estimators and index constructions, the estimate equals a weighted sum of the estimated effects on the components, with weights that are implicit and rarely reported. The paper derives the weights and shows that, for inverse-covariance-weighted indices, they can be negative and unrestricted in magnitude, so the index effect can have the opposite sign to every component effect. The paper proposes two procedures for valid inference on the index effect: a variance estimator that accounts for the data-dependent weights, and a shifted t-test that requires no such correction. Conventional t-tests of the null of no effect remain valid. Contrary to common claims, summary indices do not generally improve power. Three published studies illustrate the results.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Partially Identified Rankings from Pairwise Interactions

This paper considers the problem of ranking objects based on their latent merits using data from pairwise interactions. We allow for incomplete observation of these interactions and study what can be inferred about rankings in such settings. First, we show that identification of the ranking depends on a tradeoff between the tournament graph and the link function: in parametric models, such as the Bradley-Terry-Luce, rankings are point identified even with sparse graphs, whereas nonparametric link models require dense graphs. Second, moving beyond point identification, we characterize the identified set in the nonparametric link model under any tournament structure and represent it through moment inequalities. Finally, we propose a likelihood-based statistic to test whether a ranking belongs to the identified set. We study two testing procedures: one is finite sample valid but computationally intensive; the other is easy to implement and pointwise asymptotically valid. We illustrate our results using Brazilian employer-employee data and reject the hypothesis that the PageRank firm ordering constructed from job-to-job transitions belongs to the identified set.

econ.EM↗