arXiv subjects

David C. Parkes

Publications and source records attributed to David C. Parkes.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dynamic Welfare-Maximizing Pooled Testing

Pooled testing uses one test to certify several agents as healthy when the pooled result is negative. We study a budget-constrained welfare problem in which agents have heterogeneous utilities and independent prior probabilities of being healthy. Welfare is earned when an agent is certified healthy, and a dynamic policy may choose each pool after observing earlier test outcomes. We ask how much such adaptation can improve over a static allocation that fixes all pools in advance. Our main result proves that the optimal dynamic policy has value at most twice that of the optimal static overlapping allocation, for every population, test budget, and pool-size cap. The proof samples a path through the dynamic policy using an independent health profile, randomly thins the selected pools, and compares the resulting static allocation with the dynamic policy one agent at a time. A Boolean-cube argument proves the comparison on uniform subcubes, and a complementary-profile coupling lifts the result to arbitrary heterogeneous product priors. We also identify regimes in which adaptivity has no value, show that strict adaptive gains require re-pooling agents after positive tests, and give a three-agent instance in which adaptation is strictly beneficial. Exact-Joint Greedy obtains a $1/(e+1)$ fraction of optimal static overlapping welfare. The static non-overlapping Greedy algorithm of Finster et al. has the same guarantee, hence our factor-two theorem newly implies that each is a $2(e+1)$-approximation to the optimal dynamic policy. Finally, a reproducible exact small-instance study compares the dynamic and static benchmarks and greedy policies. The appendix records separate exploratory results for Gibbs-marginal and reinforcement-learning approaches at larger scales.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Data Market Design through Deep Learning

The data market design problem is a problem in economic theory to find a set of signaling schemes (statistical experiments) to maximize expected revenue to the information seller, where each experiment reveals some of the information known to a seller and has a corresponding price [Bergemann et al., 2018]. Each buyer has their own decision to make in a world environment, and their subjective expected value for the information associated with a particular experiment comes from the improvement in this decision and depends on their prior and value for different outcomes. In a setting with multiple buyers, a buyer's expected value for an experiment may also depend on the information sold to others [Bonatti et al., 2022]. We introduce the application of deep learning for the design of revenue-optimal data markets, looking to expand the frontiers of what can be understood and achieved. Relative to earlier work on deep learning for auction design [Dütting et al., 2023], we must learn signaling schemes rather than allocation rules and handle obedience constraints $-$ these arising from modeling the downstream actions of buyers $-$ in addition to incentive constraints on bids. Our experiments demonstrate that this new deep learning framework can almost precisely replicate all known solutions from theory, expand to more complex settings, and be used to establish the optimality of new designs for data markets and make conjectures in regard to the structure of optimal designs.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Duality for Optimal Multi-Item, Multi-Bidder Auction Design: Revenue Certificates through Deep Learning

Characterizing revenue-optimal auctions for multi-item, multi-bidder settings remains a fundamental open problem, with no known closed-form solution existing beyond restrictive binary-type instances. This has motivated interest in computational approaches to optimal auction design. In this paper, we introduce the first computational framework that directly tackles the dual problem for multi-item, multi-bidder auctions and dominant-strategy incentive compatibility (DSIC), generating certified revenue upper bounds. Our approach parametrizes Lagrange multipliers with a structurally guaranteed strict flow-conservation property using neural networks, enabling efficient optimization over feasible dual solutions via gradient descent. To bridge the gap between discrete computational methods and theoretical guarantees for continuous types, we develop a novel lifting technique that maps dual certificates from coarse discretizations to fine refinements. We prove that lifting gives valid revenue upper bounds for multi-item, multi-bidder auctions with continuous uniform valuations. Furthermore, we give a generalized lifting construction for arbitrary continuous distributions and demonstrate that these lifted duals converge to the revenue of the original continuous problem in the discrete limit. We validate this computational framework for the dual auction design problem by recovering known analytical mechanisms for canonical instances. For multi-item multi-bidder problems, our framework establishes a small gap between the optimal revenue and best-known DSIC mechanisms, providing computational certificates of near-optimality.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Understanding Strategic Platform Entry and Seller Exploration: A Stackelberg Model

Online market platforms play an increasingly powerful role in the economy. An empirical phenomenon is that platforms, such as Amazon, Apple, and DoorDash, also enter their own marketplaces, imitating successful products developed by third-party sellers. We formulate a Stackelberg model, where the platform acts as the leader by committing to an entry policy: when will it enter and compete on a product? We study this model through a theoretical and computational framework. We begin with a single seller, and consider different kinds of policies for entry. We characterize the seller's optimal explore-exploit strategy via a Gittins-index policy, and give an algorithm to compute the platform's optimal entry policy. We then consider multiple sellers, to account for competition and information spillover. Here, the Gittins-index characterization fails, and we employ deep reinforcement learning to examine seller equilibrium behavior. Our findings highlight the incentives that drive platform entry and seller innovation, consistent with empirical evidence from markets such as Amazon and Google Play, with implications for regulatory efforts to preserve innovation and market diversity.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

Learning to Play Multi-Follower Bayesian Stackelberg Games

In a multi-follower Bayesian Stackelberg game, a leader plays a mixed strategy over $L$ actions to which $n\ge 1$ followers, each having one of $K$ possible private types, best respond. The leader's optimal strategy depends on the distribution of the followers' private types. We study an online learning version of this problem: a leader interacts for $T$ rounds with $n$ followers with types sampled from an unknown distribution every round. The leader's goal is to minimize regret, defined as the difference between the cumulative utility of the optimal strategy and that of the actually chosen strategies. We design learning algorithms for the leader under different feedback settings. Under type feedback, where the leader observes the followers' types after each round, we design algorithms that achieve $O\big(\sqrt{\min(L\log(nKA T), nK ) \cdot T} \big)$ regret for independent type distributions and $O\big(\sqrt{\min(L\log(nKA T), K^n ) \cdot T} \big)$ regret for general type distributions. Interestingly, those bounds do not grow with $n$ at a polynomial rate. Under action feedback, where the leader only observes the followers' actions, we design algorithms with $O( \min(\sqrt{ n^L K^L A^{2L} L T \log T}, K^n\sqrt{ T } \log T ) )$ regret. We also provide a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{\min(L, nK)T})$, almost matching the type-feedback upper bounds.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

LLM Active Alignment: A Nash Equilibrium Perspective

We develop a game-theoretic framework for predicting and steering the behavior of populations of large language models (LLMs) through Nash equilibrium (NE) analysis. To avoid the intractability of equilibrium computation in open-ended text spaces, we model each agent's action as a mixture over human subpopulations. Agents choose actively and strategically which groups to align with, yielding an interpretable and behaviorally substantive policy class. We derive closed-form NE characterizations, adopting standard concave-utility assumptions to enable analytical system-level predictions and give explicit, actionable guidance for shifting alignment targets toward socially desirable outcomes. The method functions as an active alignment layer on top of existing alignment pipelines such as RLHF. In a social-media setting, we show that a population of LLMs, especially reasoning-based models, may exhibit political exclusion, pathologies where some subpopulations are ignored by all LLM agents, which can be avoided by our method, illustrating the promise of applying the method to regulate multi-agent LLM dynamics across domains.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Pricing with Tips in Three-Sided Delivery Platforms

We model a delivery platform facilitating transactions among three sides: buyers, stores, and couriers. In addition to buyers paying store-specific purchase prices and couriers receiving store--buyer-specific delivery compensation from the platform, each buyer has the option to directly tip for delivery from a specific store. An equilibrium consists of prices, compensations, tips, and transactions that clear the market, such that buyers receive deliveries from preferred stores considering the prices and tips they pay, and couriers deliver preferred orders considering the compensations and tips they receive. We illustrate the role of tips in pricing: Without tips, an equilibrium is only guaranteed to exist when there are at least as many couriers as buyers or stores. In contrast, with tips an equilibrium always exists. From an efficiency perspective, the optimal with-tip equilibrium welfare is always weakly larger than the optimal without-tip equilibrium welfare. However, we show that even with tips, efficient equilibria may not exist, and calculating the optimal equilibrium welfare is NP-hard. To address these challenges, we identify natural conditions on market structure that ensure the existence of efficient with-tip equilibria and allow these efficient equilibria to be computed in polynomial time.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Learning from Synthetic Labs: Language Models as Auction Participants

This paper investigates the behavior of simulated AI agents (large language models, or LLMs) in auctions, introducing a novel synthetic data-generating process to help facilitate the study and design of auctions. We find that LLMs -- when endowed with chain of thought reasoning capacity -- agree with the experimental literature in auctions across a variety of classic auction formats. In particular, we find that LLM bidders produce results consistent with risk-averse human bidders; that they perform closer to theoretical predictions in obviously strategy-proof auctions; and, that they succumb to the winner's curse in common value settings. On prompting, we find that LLMs are not very sensitive to naive changes in prompts (e.g., language, currency) but can improve dramatically towards theoretical predictions with the right mental model (i.e., the language of Nash deviations). We run 1,000$+$ auctions for less than $\$$400 with GPT-4 models (three orders of magnitude cheaper than modern auction experiments) and develop a framework flexible enough to run auction experiments with any LLM model and a wide range of auction design specifications, facilitating further experimental study by decreasing costs and serving as a proof-of-concept for the use of LLM proxies.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Predictive Churn with the Set of Good Models

Issues can arise when research focused on fairness, transparency, or safety is conducted separately from research driven by practical deployment concerns and vice versa. This separation creates a growing need for translational work that bridges the gap between independently studied concepts that may be fundamentally related. This paper explores connections between two seemingly unrelated concepts of predictive inconsistency that share intriguing parallels. The first, known as predictive multiplicity, occurs when models that perform similarly (e.g., nearly equivalent training loss) produce conflicting predictions for individual samples. This concept is often emphasized in algorithmic fairness research as a means of promoting transparency in ML model development. The second concept, predictive churn, examines the differences in individual predictions before and after model updates, a key challenge in deploying ML models in consumer-facing applications. We present theoretical and empirical results that uncover links between these previously disconnected concepts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Generative Social Choice

The mathematical study of voting, social choice theory, has traditionally only been applicable to choices among a few predetermined alternatives, but not to open-ended decisions such as collectively selecting a textual statement. We introduce generative social choice, a design methodology for open-ended democratic processes that combines the rigor of social choice theory with the capability of large language models to generate text and extrapolate preferences. Our framework divides the design of AI-augmented democratic processes into two components: first, proving that the process satisfies representation guarantees when given access to oracle queries; second, empirically validating that these queries can be approximately implemented using a large language model. We apply this framework to the problem of summarizing free-form opinions into a proportionally representative slate of opinion statements; specifically, we develop a democratic process with representation guarantees and use this process to portray the opinions of participants in a survey about abortion policy. In a trial with 100 representative US residents, we find that 84 out of 100 participants feel "excellently" or "exceptionally" represented by the slate of five statements we extracted.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

BundleFlow: Deep Menus for Combinatorial Auctions by Diffusion-Based Optimization

Differentiable economics -- the use of deep learning for auction design -- has driven progress in the automated design of multi-item auctions with additive or unit-demand valuations. However, little progress has been made for optimal combinatorial auctions (CAs), even for the single bidder case, because we need to overcome the challenge of the bundle space growing exponentially with the number of items. For example, when learning a menu of allocation-price choices for a bidder in a CA, each menu element needs to efficiently and flexibly specify a probability distribution on bundles. In this paper, we solve this problem in the single-bidder CA setting by generating a bundle distribution through an ordinary differential equation (ODE) applied to a tractable initial distribution, drawing inspiration from generative models, especially score-based diffusion models and continuous normalizing flow. Our method, BundleFlow, uses deep learning to find suitable ODE-based transforms of initial distributions, one transform for each menu element, so that the overall menu achieves high expected revenue. Our method achieves 1.11$-$2.23$\times$ higher revenue compared with automated mechanism design baselines on the single-bidder version of CATS, a standard CA testbed, and scales to problems with up to 150 items. Relative to a baseline that also learns allocations in menu elements, our method reduces the training iterations by 3.6$-$9.5$\times$ and cuts training time by about 80% in settings with 50 and 100 items.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

On Diffusion Models for Multi-Agent Partial Observability: Shared Attractors, Error Bounds, and Composite Flow

Multiagent systems grapple with partial observability (PO), and the decentralized POMDP (Dec-POMDP) model highlights the fundamental nature of this challenge. Whereas recent approaches to addressing PO have appealed to deep learning models, providing a rigorous understanding of how these models and their approximation errors affect agents' handling of PO and their interactions remain a challenge. In addressing this challenge, we investigate reconstructing global states from local action-observation histories in Dec-POMDPs using diffusion models. We first find that diffusion models conditioned on local history represent possible states as stable fixed points. In collectively observable (CO) Dec-POMDPs, individual diffusion models conditioned on agents' local histories share a unique fixed point corresponding to the global state, while in non-CO settings, shared fixed points yield a distribution of possible states given joint history. We further find that, with deep learning approximation errors, fixed points can deviate from true states and the deviation is negatively correlated to the Jacobian rank. Inspired by this low-rank property, we bound a deviation by constructing a surrogate linear regression model that approximates the local behavior of a diffusion model. With this bound, we propose a \emph{composite diffusion process} iterating over agents with theoretical convergence guarantees to the true state.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Multi-Agent Risks from Advanced AI

The rapid development of advanced AI agents and the imminent deployment of many instances of these agents will give rise to multi-agent systems of unprecedented complexity. These systems pose novel and under-explored risks. In this report, we provide a structured taxonomy of these risks by identifying three key failure modes (miscoordination, conflict, and collusion) based on agents' incentives, as well as seven key risk factors (information asymmetries, network effects, selection pressures, destabilising dynamics, commitment problems, emergent agency, and multi-agent security) that can underpin them. We highlight several important instances of each risk, as well as promising directions to help mitigate them. By anchoring our analysis in a range of real-world examples and experimental evidence, we illustrate the distinct challenges posed by multi-agent systems and their implications for the safety, governance, and ethics of advanced AI.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

LLM-Powered Preference Elicitation in Combinatorial Assignment

We study the potential of large language models (LLMs) as proxies for humans to simplify preference elicitation (PE) in combinatorial assignment. While traditional PE methods rely on iterative queries to capture preferences, LLMs offer a one-shot alternative with reduced human effort. We propose a framework for LLM proxies that can work in tandem with SOTA ML-powered preference elicitation schemes. Our framework handles the novel challenges introduced by LLMs, such as response variability and increased computational costs. We experimentally evaluate the efficiency of LLM proxies against human queries in the well-studied course allocation domain, and we investigate the model capabilities required for success. We find that our approach improves allocative efficiency by up to 20%, and these results are robust across different LLMs and to differences in quality and accuracy of reporting.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

GemNet: Menu-Based, Strategy-Proof Multi-Bidder Auctions Through Deep Learning

Automated mechanism design (AMD) uses computational methods for mechanism design. Differentiable economics is a form of AMD that uses deep learning to learn mechanism designs and has enabled strong progress in AMD in recent years. Nevertheless, a major open problem has been to learn multi-bidder, general, and fully strategy-proof (SP) auctions. We introduce GEneral Menu-based NETwork (GemNet), which significantly extends the menu-based approach of the single-bidder RochetNet (Dütting et al., 2024) to the multi-bidder setting. The challenge in achieving SP is to learn bidder-independent menus that are feasible, so that the optimal menu choices for each bidder do not over-allocate items when taken together (we call this menu compatibility). GemNet penalizes the failure of menu compatibility during training, and transforms learned menus after training through price changes, by considering a set of discretized bidder values and reasoning about Lipschitz smoothness to guarantee menu compatibility on the entire value space. This approach is general, leaving trained menus that already satisfy menu compatibility undisturbed and reducing to RochetNet for a single bidder. Mixed-integer linear programs are used for menu transforms, and through a number of optimizations enabled by deep learning, including adaptive grids and methods to skip menu elements, we scale to large auction design problems. GemNet learns auctions with better revenue than affine maximization methods, achieves exact SP whereas previous general multi-bidder methods are approximately SP, and offers greatly enhanced interpretability.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Principal-Agent Reinforcement Learning: Orchestrating AI Agents with Contracts

The increasing deployment of AI is shaping the future landscape of the internet, which is set to become an integrated ecosystem of AI agents. Orchestrating the interaction among AI agents necessitates decentralized, self-sustaining mechanisms that harmonize the tension between individual interests and social welfare. In this paper we tackle this challenge by synergizing reinforcement learning with principal-agent theory from economics. Taken separately, the former allows unrealistic freedom of intervention, while the latter struggles to scale in sequential settings. Combining them achieves the best of both worlds. We propose a framework where a principal guides an agent in a Markov Decision Process (MDP) using a series of contracts, which specify payments by the principal based on observable outcomes of the agent's actions. We present and analyze a meta-algorithm that iteratively optimizes the policies of the principal and agent, showing its equivalence to a contraction operator on the principal's Q-function, and its convergence to subgame-perfect equilibrium. We then scale our algorithm with deep Q-learning and analyze its convergence in the presence of approximation error, both theoretically and through experiments with randomly generated binary game-trees. Extending our framework to multiple agents, we apply our methodology to the combinatorial Coin Game. Addressing this multi-agent sequential social dilemma is a promising first step toward scaling our approach to more complex, real-world instances.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Experimental Evidence That Conversational Artificial Intelligence Can Steer Consumer Behavior Without Detection

Conversational AI models are becoming increasingly popular and are about to replace traditional search engines for information retrieval and product discovery. This raises concerns about monetization strategies and the potential for subtle consumer manipulation. Companies may have financial incentives to steer users toward search results or products in a conversation in ways that are unnoticeable to consumers. Using a behavioral experiment, we show that conversational AI models can indeed significantly shift consumer preferences. We discuss implications and ask whether regulators are sufficiently prepared to combat potential consumer deception.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Strategic Liquidity Provision in Uniswap v3

Uniswap v3 is the largest decentralized exchange for digital currencies. A novelty of its design is that it allows a liquidity provider (LP) to allocate liquidity to one or more closed intervals of the price of an asset instead of the full range of possible prices. An LP earns fee rewards proportional to the amount of its liquidity allocation when prices move in this interval. This induces the problem of {\em strategic liquidity provision}: smaller intervals result in higher concentration of liquidity and correspondingly larger fees when the price remains in the interval, but with higher risk as prices may exit the interval leaving the LP with no fee rewards. Although reallocating liquidity to new intervals can mitigate this loss, it comes at a cost, as LPs must expend gas fees to do so. We formalize the dynamic liquidity provision problem and focus on a general class of strategies for which we provide a neural network-based optimization framework for maximizing LP earnings. We model a single LP that faces an exogenous sequence of price changes that arise from arbitrage and non-arbitrage trades in the decentralized exchange. We present experimental results informed by historical price data that demonstrate large improvements in LP earnings over existing allocation strategy baselines. Moreover we provide insight into qualitative differences in optimal LP behaviour in different economic environments.

cs.CR↗