arXiv subjects

Dong Xia

Publications and source records attributed to Dong Xia.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Nonparametric Goodness-of-fit Testing under Covariate Shift

This paper develops procedures for nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing under covariate shift, where labelled data are drawn from a source population but goodness-of-fit is evaluated for a target population. The distribution mismatch is quantified by either a bounded moment condition or a sub-exponential tail condition on the target-to-source density ratio. Our method combines truncated importance-weighting kernel ridge regression with a multiplier bootstrap to construct confidence sets for the regression function. The truncation stabilizes the importance- weighting kernel ridge regression as well as the bootstrap calibration, making our approach applicable even when the density ratio has heavy tails. We prove nonasymptotic validity and sharpness of the resulting confidence sets under suitable operator compatibility conditions, and establish explicit error rates for coverage probability under specific conditions on the target- to-source density ratio and on the spectral decay of the kernel integral operator. Numerical experiments corroborate our theoretical findings.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Spherical Mixture Integration for Latent Embedding Alignment across Multi-Source Feature Spaces

Multi-institutional electronic health record (Multi-EHR) data have emerged as a powerful resource for developing predictive models to support clinical decisions and for generating reliable real-world evidence. By aggregating information from diverse patient populations and institutions, they enhance the robustness and generalizability of models and findings. However, analyzing multi-EHR remains challenging because disparate institutions rarely map all data elements to common ontologies, and raw EHR codes are often overly granular and institution-specific, fragmenting representations of the same clinical concept. Hence, integrative analysis must overcome two key hurdles: harmonizing codes with the same clinical meaning (synonymy), and aligning institutional feature spaces. To address these challenges, we propose SMILE, a Spherical Mixture Integration for Latent Embedding alignment across multi-source feature spaces, where embeddings from heterogeneous sources serve as privacy-preserving summaries of clinical concepts and sparse relational pairs provide weak supervision. Synonymy is modeled via a mixture of von Mises-Fisher distributions, yielding unified representations of semantically equivalent raw codes. We develop a composite quasi-likelihood estimator with non-asymptotic error bounds for the latent representations and mixture mean directions and consistent synonym-cluster recovery, quantifying the gains from integrating multiple sources and knowledge-graph information. Simulations and a multi-institutional EHR application demonstrate improved alignment and synonym clustering.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Prediction-powered Inference by Mixture of Experts

The rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) industry has produced diverse yet powerful prediction tools, each with its own network architecture, training strategy, data-processing pipeline, and domain-specific strengths. These tools create new opportunities for semi-supervised inference, in which labeled data are limited and expensive to obtain, whereas unlabeled data are abundant and widely available. Given a collection of predictors, we treat them as a mixture of experts (MOE) and introduce an MOE-powered semi-supervised inference framework built upon prediction-powered inference (PPI). Motivated by the variance reduction principle underlying PPI, the proposed framework seeks the mixture of experts that achieves the smallest possible variance. Compared with standard PPI, the MOE-powered inference framework adapts to the unknown performance of individual predictors, benefits from their collective predictive power, and enjoys a best-expert guarantee. The framework is flexible and applies to mean estimation, linear regression, quantile estimation, and general M-estimation. We develop non-asymptotic theory for the MOE-powered inference framework and establish upper bounds on the coverage error of the resulting confidence intervals. Numerical experiments demonstrate the practical effectiveness of MOE-powered inference and corroborate our theoretical findings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

DSVM-UNet : Enhancing VM-UNet with Dual Self-distillation for Medical Image Segmentation

Vision Mamba models have been extensively researched in various fields, which address the limitations of previous models by effectively managing long-range dependencies with a linear-time overhead. Several prospective studies have further designed Vision Mamba based on UNet(VM-UNet) for medical image segmentation. These approaches primarily focus on optimizing architectural designs by creating more complex structures to enhance the model's ability to perceive semantic features. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach to improve the model by Dual Self-distillation for VM-UNet (DSVM-UNet) without any complex architectural designs. To achieve this goal, we develop double self-distillation methods to align the features at both the global and local levels. Extensive experiments conducted on the ISIC2017, ISIC2018, and Synapse benchmarks demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining computational efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/RoryShao/DSVM-UNet.git.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Statistical Inference for Matching Decisions via Matrix Completion under Dependent Missingness

This paper studies decision-making and statistical inference for two-sided matching markets via matrix completion. In contrast to the independent sampling assumed in classical matrix completion literature, the observed entries, which arise from past matching data, are constrained by matching capacity. This matching-induced dependence poses new challenges for both estimation and inference in the matrix completion framework. We propose a non-convex algorithm based on Grassmannian gradient descent and establish near-optimal entrywise convergence rates for three canonical mechanisms, i.e., one-to-one matching, one-to-many matching with one-sided random arrival, and two-sided random arrival. To facilitate valid uncertainty quantification and hypothesis testing on matching decisions, we further develop a general debiasing and projection framework for arbitrary linear forms of the reward matrix, deriving asymptotic normality with finite-sample guarantees under matching-induced dependent sampling. Our empirical experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach provides accurate estimation, valid confidence intervals, and efficient evaluation of matching policies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Low-Rank Tensor Estimation from Nonlinear Observations: A Unified Framework

We consider the estimation of a $d_1\times d_2\times d_3$ tensor $X^\star$ of Tucker rank $(r_1,r_2,r_3)$ from the nonlinear observations $\{y_i=f_i(\langle A_i,X^\star\rangle)\}_{i=1}^n$. We develop a unified approach that first constructs a gradient map from the data and then establishes the tensor restricted approximate invertibility condition (T-RAIC), a condition that quantifies how well the gradient map aligns with the ideal descent step under a low-rank tensor dual norm. We show that T-RAIC yields local linear convergence guarantees for a Riemannian gradient descent (RGD) algorithm, which may incorporate a normalization step if $\|X^\star\|_{\rm F}$ is known a priori. Under $O(r_1r_2r_3+\sum_{1\le i\le 3}r_id_i)$ Gaussian measurements, we establish T-RAICs for single-index models, logistic regression, phase retrieval, ReLU regression, and one-bit compressed sensing. The RAICs imply that RGD locally converges to $X^\star$ exactly in phase retrieval and ReLU regression, and up to near-optimal estimation errors in the remaining models. We further show that, in all these models except for phase retrieval, a simple spectral initialization yields the desired initialization from $O(d^{3/2})$ measurements under $d_1=d_2=d_3=d$ (ignoring dependence on the Tucker rank and condition number of $X^\star$). This is also the best known sample complexity for polynomial-time and end-to-end algorithms in tensor linear regression and tensor completion. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate our theoretical findings.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Conformal Network Link Prediction with False Discovery Rate Control under Unstructured Missingness

We propose a new method for predicting multiple missing links in partially observed networks while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), a largely unresolved challenge in network analysis. The main difficulty lies in handling complex dependencies and unknown missing patterns. We introduce conformal link prediction, a distribution-free procedure grounded in the exchangeability structure of weighted graphon models. Our approach constructs conformal p-values via a novel multi-splitting strategy that restores exchangeability within local test sets, thereby ensuring valid row-wise FDR control, even under unknown missing mechanisms. To achieve FDR control across all missing links, we further develop a new aggregation scheme based on e-values, which accommodates arbitrary dependence across network predictions. Our method requires no assumptions on the missing rates, applies to weighted, unweighted, undirected, and bipartite networks, and enjoys finite-sample theoretical guarantees. Extensive simulations and real-world data study confirm the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

A novel approach to differential expression analysis of co-occurrence networks for small-sampled microbiome data

Graph-based machine learning methods are useful tools in the identification and prediction of variation in genetic data. In particular, the comprehension of phenotypic effects at the cellular level is an accelerating research area in pharmacogenomics. In this article, a novel graph theoretic approach is proposed to infer a co-occurrence network from 16S microbiome data. The approach is specialised to handle datasets containing a small number of samples. Small datasets exacerbate the significant challenges faced by biological data, which exhibit properties such as sparsity, compositionality, and complexity of interactions. Methodologies are also proposed to enrich and statistically filter the inferred networks. The utility of the proposed method lies in that it extracts an informative network from small sampled data that is not only feature-rich, but also biologically meaningful and statistically significant. Although specialised for small data sets, which are abundant, it can be generally applied to any small-sampled dataset, and can also be extended to integrate multi-omics data. The proposed methodology is tested on a data set of chickens vaccinated against and challenged by the protozoan parasite Eimeria tenella. The raw genetic reads are processed, and networks inferred to describe the ecosystems of the chicken intestines under three different stages of disease progression. Analysis of the expression of network features derive biologically intuitive conclusions from purely statistical methods. For example, there is a clear evolution in the distribution of node features in line with the progression of the disease. The distributions also reveal clusters of species interacting mutualistically and parasitically, as expected. Moreover, a specific sub-network is found to persist through all experimental conditions, representative of a persistent microbiome.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2024

Federated PCA and Estimation for Spiked Covariance Matrices: Optimal Rates and Efficient Algorithm

Federated Learning (FL) has gained significant recent attention in machine learning for its enhanced privacy and data security, making it indispensable in fields such as healthcare, finance, and personalized services. This paper investigates federated PCA and estimation for spiked covariance matrices under distributed differential privacy constraints. We establish minimax rates of convergence, with a key finding that the central server's optimal rate is the harmonic mean of the local clients' minimax rates. This guarantees consistent estimation at the central server as long as at least one local client provides consistent results. Notably, consistency is maintained even if some local estimators are inconsistent, provided there are enough clients. These findings highlight the robustness and scalability of FL for reliable statistical inference under privacy constraints. To establish minimax lower bounds, we derive a matrix version of van Trees' inequality, which is of independent interest. Furthermore, we propose an efficient algorithm that preserves differential privacy while achieving near-optimal rates at the central server, up to a logarithmic factor. We address significant technical challenges in analyzing this algorithm, which involves a three-layer spectral decomposition. Numerical performance of the proposed algorithm is investigated using both simulated and real data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Regret Minimization and Statistical Inference in Online Decision Making with High-dimensional Covariates

This paper investigates regret minimization, statistical inference, and their interplay in high-dimensional online decision-making based on the sparse linear context bandit model. We integrate the $\varepsilon$-greedy bandit algorithm for decision-making with a hard thresholding algorithm for estimating sparse bandit parameters and introduce an inference framework based on a debiasing method using inverse propensity weighting. Under a margin condition, our method achieves either $O(T^{1/2})$ regret or classical $O(T^{1/2})$-consistent inference, indicating an unavoidable trade-off between exploration and exploitation. If a diverse covariate condition holds, we demonstrate that a pure-greedy bandit algorithm, i.e., exploration-free, combined with a debiased estimator based on average weighting can simultaneously achieve optimal $O(\log T)$ regret and $O(T^{1/2})$-consistent inference. We also show that a simple sample mean estimator can provide valid inference for the optimal policy's value. Numerical simulations and experiments on Warfarin dosing data validate the effectiveness of our methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Statistical Inference in Tensor Completion: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical-to-Computational Gaps

This paper presents a simple yet efficient method for statistical inference of tensor linear forms using incomplete and noisy observations. Under the Tucker low-rank tensor model and the missing-at-random assumption, we utilize an appropriate initial estimate along with a debiasing technique followed by a one-step power iteration to construct an asymptotically normal test statistic. This method is suitable for various statistical inference tasks, including constructing confidence intervals, inference under heteroskedastic and sub-exponential noise, and simultaneous testing. We demonstrate that the estimator achieves the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound on Riemannian manifolds, indicating its optimality in uncertainty quantification. We comprehensively examine the statistical-to-computational gaps and investigate the impact of initialization on the minimal conditions regarding sample size and signal-to-noise ratio required for accurate inference. Our findings show that with independent initialization, statistically optimal sample sizes and signal-to-noise ratios are sufficient for accurate inference. Conversely, if only dependent initialization is available, computationally optimal sample sizes and signal-to-noise ratio conditions still guarantee asymptotic normality without the need for data-splitting. We present the phase transition between computational and statistical limits. Numerical simulation results align with the theoretical findings.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Local Prediction-Powered Inference

To infer a function value on a specific point $x$, it is essential to assign higher weights to the points closer to $x$, which is called local polynomial / multivariable regression. In many practical cases, a limited sample size may ruin this method, but such conditions can be improved by the Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) technique. This paper introduced a specific algorithm for local multivariable regression using PPI, which can significantly reduce the variance of estimations without enlarge the error. The confidence intervals, bias correction, and coverage probabilities are analyzed and proved the correctness and superiority of our algorithm. Numerical simulation and real-data experiments are applied and show these conclusions. Another contribution compared to PPI is the theoretical computation efficiency and explainability by taking into account the dependency of the dependent variable.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Tensor Methods in High Dimensional Data Analysis: Opportunities and Challenges

Large amount of multidimensional data represented by multiway arrays or tensors are prevalent in modern applications across various fields such as chemometrics, genomics, physics, psychology, and signal processing. The structural complexity of such data provides vast new opportunities for modeling and analysis, but efficiently extracting information content from them, both statistically and computationally, presents unique and fundamental challenges. Addressing these challenges requires an interdisciplinary approach that brings together tools and insights from statistics, optimization and numerical linear algebra among other fields. Despite these hurdles, significant progress has been made in the last decade. This review seeks to examine some of the key advancements and identify common threads among them, under eight different statistical settings.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Online Policy Learning and Inference by Matrix Completion

Is it possible to make online decisions when personalized covariates are unavailable? We take a collaborative-filtering approach for decision-making based on collective preferences. By assuming low-dimensional latent features, we formulate the covariate-free decision-making problem as a matrix completion bandit. We propose a policy learning procedure that combines an $\varepsilon$-greedy policy for decision-making with an online gradient descent algorithm for bandit parameter estimation. Our novel two-phase design balances policy learning accuracy and regret performance. For policy inference, we develop an online debiasing method based on inverse propensity weighting and establish its asymptotic normality. Our methods are applied to data from the San Francisco parking pricing project, revealing intriguing discoveries and outperforming the benchmark policy.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Online Quantile Regression

This paper addresses the challenge of integrating sequentially arriving data within the quantile regression framework, where the number of features is allowed to grow with the number of observations, the horizon is unknown, and memory is limited. We employ stochastic sub-gradient descent to minimize the empirical check loss and study its statistical properties and regret performance. In our analysis, we unveil the delicate interplay between updating iterates based on individual observations versus batches of observations, revealing distinct regularity properties in each scenario. Our method ensures long-term optimal estimation irrespective of the chosen update strategy. Importantly, our contributions go beyond prior works by achieving exponential-type concentration inequalities and attaining optimal regret and error rates that exhibit only \textsf{ short-term} sensitivity to initial errors. A key insight from our study is the delicate statistical analyses and the revelation that appropriate stepsize schemes significantly mitigate the impact of initial errors on subsequent errors and regrets. This underscores the robustness of stochastic sub-gradient descent in handling initial uncertainties, emphasizing its efficacy in scenarios where the sequential arrival of data introduces uncertainties regarding both the horizon and the total number of observations. Additionally, when the initial error rate is well-controlled, there is a trade-off between short-term error rate and long-term optimality. Due to the lack of delicate statistical analysis for squared loss, we also briefly discuss its properties and proper schemes. Extensive simulations support our theoretical findings.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Optimal Differentially Private PCA and Estimation for Spiked Covariance Matrices

Estimating a covariance matrix and its associated principal components is a fundamental problem in contemporary statistics. While optimal estimation procedures have been developed with well-understood properties, the increasing demand for privacy preservation introduces new complexities to this classical problem. In this paper, we study optimal differentially private Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and covariance estimation within the spiked covariance model. We precisely characterize the sensitivity of eigenvalues and eigenvectors under this model and establish the minimax rates of convergence for estimating both the principal components and covariance matrix. These rates hold up to logarithmic factors and encompass general Schatten norms, including spectral norm, Frobenius norm, and nuclear norm as special cases. We propose computationally efficient differentially private estimators and prove their minimax optimality for sub-Gaussian distributions, up to logarithmic factors. Additionally, matching minimax lower bounds are established. Notably, compared to the existing literature, our results accommodate a diverging rank, a broader range of signal strengths, and remain valid even when the sample size is much smaller than the dimension, provided the signal strength is sufficiently strong. Both simulation studies and real data experiments demonstrate the merits of our method.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Multiple Testing of Linear Forms for Noisy Matrix Completion

Many important tasks of large-scale recommender systems can be naturally cast as testing multiple linear forms for noisy matrix completion. These problems, however, present unique challenges because of the subtle bias-and-variance tradeoff of and an intricate dependence among the estimated entries induced by the low-rank structure. In this paper, we develop a general approach to overcome these difficulties by introducing new statistics for individual tests with sharp asymptotics both marginally and jointly, and utilizing them to control the false discovery rate (FDR) via a data splitting and symmetric aggregation scheme. We show that valid FDR control can be achieved with guaranteed power under nearly optimal sample size requirements using the proposed methodology. Extensive numerical simulations and real data examples are also presented to further illustrate its practical merits.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Clustering of Discrete Mixtures: Binomial, Poisson, Block Models, and Multi-layer Networks

In this paper, we first study the fundamental limit of clustering networks when a multi-layer network is present. Under the mixture multi-layer stochastic block model (MMSBM), we show that the minimax optimal network clustering error rate, which takes an exponential form and is characterized by the Renyi divergence between the edge probability distributions of the component networks. We propose a novel two-stage network clustering method including a tensor-based initialization algorithm involving both node and sample splitting and a refinement procedure by likelihood-based Lloyd algorithm. Network clustering must be accompanied by node community detection. Our proposed algorithm achieves the minimax optimal network clustering error rate and allows extreme network sparsity under MMSBM. Numerical simulations and real data experiments both validate that our method outperforms existing methods. Oftentimes, the edges of networks carry count-type weights. We then extend our methodology and analysis framework to study the minimax optimal clustering error rate for mixture of discrete distributions including Binomial, Poisson, and multi-layer Poisson networks. The minimax optimal clustering error rates in these discrete mixtures all take the same exponential form characterized by the Renyi divergences. These optimal clustering error rates in discrete mixtures can also be achieved by our proposed two-stage clustering algorithm.

math.ST↗